This policy report presents the consensus view of a group of distinguished Iraqi academics and professionals brought together with the support of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. It is based on the proceedings of several meetings held at various locations in Europe and the Middle East during 2008, including a three-day workshop in Jordan in October. Iraqis from all parts of the country were present, Islamists as well as secularists, from a wide range of professional backgrounds – including political science, the oil sector, and the military. The group included people living inside Iraq as well as exiles, and brought together people who are part of today’s political process as well as individuals who have remained outside it. This document concentrates on the specific policy proposals that emerged during the process. It constitutes a rare example of a plan of action for Iraq and the international community that can appeal to all Iraqis, regardless of ethnic or sectarian background.
The report sets out by questioning the success of the US “surge” in Iraq when it comes to providing long-term stability. It highlights the absence of real political reform as well as the persistence of Iranian influence over the new Iraqi political system as factors that may lead to major regional instability – either if US forces withdraw without facilitating a process of genuine national reconciliation, or if an attempt is made to overstay the withdrawal framework of the SOFA. Today, unless the international community alters its approach, a protracted conflict between an Iran-supported Iraqi government and various insurgency groups (including some with inspiration from al-Qaeda) seems like the most probable five-year scenario for Iraq. As a consequence, the geopolitical point of gravity in the region can be expected to shift towards Tehran, with an accompanying escalation of regional tensions as well as likely disruptions to world energy supply.
The report does two things to deal with this problem: It identifies ways in which the United States and the international community can regain leverage in the Iraq crisis, and it highlights reform measures that can help bring reconciliation in Iraq by focusing on the general population rather than on political opportunists – thereby also making the country more stable in the long term and less susceptible to Iranian influences. By aligning itself with the strong but often underestimated national aspirations of the Iraqi people (instead of the sectarian interests pursued by some Iraqi politicians), the United States would be able to responsibly withdraw its military forces within sixteen months while at the same time supporting a post-sectarian program of political reform. This approach would be less vulnerable to potential criticisms of interference in internal Iraqi affairs, and would also enjoy the legitimacy of a true international coalition effort. The project singles out the 2009 parliamentary elections as a key milestone in the suggested process. It outlines several specific preparatory steps through which the international community could optimize the climate of those elections so as better to reflect the Iraqi popular will and thereby produce a more stable political system. Policy proposals cover such areas as refugee repatriation, debt relief, economic aid, engagement with Europe and the Arab League, electoral assistance, Kurdistan issues, reaching out to the armed resistance, US policy towards Iran, and the role of the UN and UNAMI.
