Balancing Acts – Russian-Chinese Relations
Assisterende direktør Geir Flikkes nye rapport med tittelen Balancing Acts – Russian-Chinese Relations and Developments in the SCO and CSTO omhandler utviklingen i forbindelsene mellom Russland og Kina innenfor Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) og Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).
Et kort engelsk sammendrag av rapporten:
The report takes as its point of departure the assumption that the core game in Eurasia is based on realist practices of balance and counterbalance. In this analysis, the multilateral institutions of the CSTO, SCO and EAEC constitute a macro-structure of interstate cooperation that serves the purpose of professing a ‘value dimension’ in a context dominated by regional and sub-regional rivalries – existing and potential. This entails that the core components of multilateralism in Eurasia are based upon the pillars of Chinese–Russian rapprochement in energy and trade, and Russian sticks and carrots to regain a security foothold in Eurasia. From this it follows: firstly, that Chinese–Russian rapprochement has effectively enveloped the Central Asian states in a more solidly webbed relationship than would otherwise have been the case if Russia and China were on less amiable terms. Secondly, the declared multilateralist collective security dimension of the CSTO is to be conceived as a framework based on Russian economic and energy dominance in the CIS space. The CSTO, while situated at the sub-level of the Eurasian regional dynamics, and certainly also struggling to overcome regional differences from Central Asia to the Caucasus and the European frontline, constitutes the primary arena for Moscow’s ‘twisting tongues and twisting arms’ approach to its sphere of interests, while the SCO satisfies Russia’s interests in a great-power dialogue on regional stability.