Norway and Great Power Politics – Geopolitics, Technology and Climate
This research programme is structured around three meta-trends: Geopolitical developments, technological development and climate change. Changes within these trends and their effects on the overall strategic importance of the North-Atlantic area and conditions for Norwegian security are examined.
The program consists of five pillars: 1) American technology and doctrine: Implications for strategic stability; 2) Russian «Grand Strategy» in the High North; 3) the Nordic countries’ position in a new security landscape; 4) Norway and the strategic balance between the Great Powers; and 5) implications for Norwegian security-policy and the analytical tools we utilize. The project delivers pertinent in-depth analysis within the five pillars as well as analysis of their collective overall effects.
To a stronger degree then in the past the North-Atlantic area is becoming a full-fledged theater of operations. The area is connected to an Atlantic maritime theater in the West and a continental theater in the South. These developments are an important part of the foundation of the project and influences the production of analysis. In spite of geopolitics’ anchoring in lasting geography, it changes over time due to the emergence of new Great Powers, new essential resources, increased navigability caused by climate change, new technology and new means of communication. The shifts in the geopolitical power dynamics between the West and Russia which manifests themselves profoundly in the North-Atlantic area is pivotal to the project. The recent shift in dynamics between the United States and China is also key, as it will gain greater influence in the region over time. This backdrop underscores the topicality of the project and its’ relevance to Norwegian security policy.
Project Manager
Participants
Articles
Hvor mye hjelp kan Norge få i krig?
Rethink territory: How Ukraine can redefine victory
The quest for a foreign policy ‘home turf’ after Brexit
The Ukraine war and the NATO responses in the Baltic and the High North regions
NUPI hosted an Experts’ roundtable on NATO’s new strategic concept
New publications
The defence of northern Europe: new opportunities, significant challenges
With Finland and Sweden joining NATO, the Nordics will be united for the first time in a military alliance encompassing not only northern Europe but also the broader transatlantic region. It will eventually fortify northern European security, but several obstacles must be overcome first. NATO has done a formidable job since 2014 in updating its defence plans, cumulating in the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area (DDA) family of plans approved in Vilnius 2023. Now Finland and Sweden need to be incorporated into these plans. A more challenging task is to implement NATO's New Force Model which is tremendously ambitious. Finland and Sweden's contributions will be important, but new investments must be made. NATO's Command Structure is yet to be fully reformed and fitted to the DDA. Joint Force Command Norfolk must urgently be staffed, without undue politicization in NATO. Nordic defence buildup can draw on regional cooperation in particular in five areas: in strengthening the area's command design through functional double-hatted headquarters; developing close air power cooperation through e.g. a Combined Joint Air Operations Centre; strengthening total defence cooperation across borders and expanding logistical infrastructure; establishing joint intelligence task forces; and joint training and exercises. The contributions of the United States and United Kingdom are indispensable when it comes to upholding the alliance's guarantee in northern Europe. The recent signing of Defense Cooperation Agreements between the US and the Nordics reinforces this—together with an increased presence of air and naval assets in the region. The same applies to the UK and the Joint Expeditionary Force which now has shifted its focus towards northern Europe. This engagement is a crucial addition to Nordic and NATO plans and activities in a period when growth in Nordic defence structures is occurring at a relatively slow pace. Only after the weaknesses and hurdles are addressed will the deterrence and defence of the region attain a fully credible level.
Deterrence and (Re)assurance in the High North – Finland and Norway Compared
- Finland and Norway are both frontline states to Russia with a similar deterrence and defense strategy. - Finland’s geopolitical position as a frontline state is mainly defined by the long land border to Russia. Norway is predominantly a maritime frontline state. - Norway is both a frontline state and a rear area for staging support to military operations in the Nordic Region. - Geography is a factor influencing the different approaches in Finland and Norway to foreign military activity near Russia. Also, proximity to nuclear forces and test areas.
Command and Control in Northern Europe: Challenges and Potential Solutions
Command and control (C2) is a fundamental requirement for military action. Despite the regional tensions currently faced in Northern Europe, however, deficiencies remain in NATO’s current system. As such, this policy brief examines NATO’s ability to perform C2 amid the region’s evolving security landscape, and how this might be strengthened going forward. The brief concludes that the newly established Joint Forces Command (JFC) Norfolk should assume responsibility for Allied C2 in regional crisis management and conflict. •NATO enlargement, coupled with technological and political changes – including the rise of China and Russian aggression in Ukraine and other parts of Europe – has placed new demands on Allied C2 arrangements. •More specifically, the entry of Finland and (soon) Sweden into NATO has spurred debate over the future C2 architecture for NATO forces in the Nordic–Baltic region. •Following the end of the Cold War, NATO chose to abolish its existing C2 architecture, which was designed to counter the Soviet threat in Europe and the North Atlantic, and instead focus on out-of-area operations. •Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, and especially its invasion of Ukraine in 2014, have led to changes in NATO’s military organisation, notably the establishment of a new JFC in Norfolk, Virginia.