Roman Vakulchuk

Participatory Democracy and Evidence-based Decision Making at the Local Level in Ukraine

China’s Belt and Road Initiative through the lens of Central Asia

Has the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, changed the perception of China among local actors in Central Asia? There are numerous internal problems and contradictions among the Central Asian countries and the region remains one of the least integrated in the world. This poses serious challenges to BRI but also offers opportunities for enhancing regional connectivity and integration. Although there has been some research and even more media coverage of BRI, little is known about how Central Asians perceive BRI. This chapter fills some of these gaps and analyzes the present state of relations between the Central Asian countries and China and collects and systematizes perceptions of Beijing and BRI among Central Asian stakeholders. The analysis focuses on economic cooperation, infrastructure and educational initiatives, as they as they are among BRI's main pillars. The main conclusion is that current attitudes towards China have been formed within the framework of bilateral relations that started in 1991, and there has so far been no major shift in the perception of China in Central Asia since BRI was launched. Whereas the broader public expects more economic opportunities from BRI and there has been more discussion of China's role in Central Asia after 2013, local communities remain uninformed and weakly connected to the high-level interaction between the Chinese and Central Asian governments.

Valdai Paper #92: Russia’s Far East Initiatives in Troubled Geopolitical Times

The China–Russia rapprochement forms the centrepiece of Russia’s much hyped policy of a ‘turn to the East’, a policy aimed at transforming the Russian Far East from a territorial backwater into a new gateway to China, North-East Asia and beyond. In 2013, President Vladimir Putin declared the development of the Far East a ‘national priority for the entire twenty-first century’. Historically, the Russian Far East was rather a garrison on the distant frontier. But today there is a new development model for the region that is expected to turn it into the gateway to the East, the region of growth and cooperation aimed to reap the benefits of rising Asia, particularly China. New institutions, projects, and financing have been provided for this purpose. What progress has been made so far in implementing the Eastern vector in Russian domestic and foreign policy? Have the ambitious plans indeed borne fruits, like President Xi declared? And what are the main drivers behind the ‘turn to the East’? Do worsened geopolitical relations with Western European actors intensify the turn? Or is it driven by the perceptions of opportunities and long-term objectives in the Asia-Pacific region? The Valdai Paper #92 presents a critical and independent view on Russia’s Turn to the East by the European authors.

Impact of non-tariff barriers on trade within the Eurasian Economic Union

How great is the impact of non-tariff barriers on trade in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and how much will internal trade grow if they are eliminated? The Treaty on the EAEU declares removal of non-tariff barriers as a common goal. This article estimates the impact of non-tariff barriers on trade in goods in the EAEU based on 2010–2015 trade data. The empirical approach draws on the Haveman and Thursby disaggregated model. The estimates show that various trade-growth effects can be observed in different trade groups if non-tariff barriers are reduced or fully eliminated. Agriculture and the food industry have the highest growth potential: around 40% growth with a 50% reduction of barriers. The highest growth potential is found for trade between Belarus and Kazakhstan. The most significant effects are observed for member-states that are small in terms of the size of the economy and for which the internal trade share is large.

Customs Capacity Building for WCO Members 2012-2015

International trade offers a wealth of opportunities for low-income countries to reduce poverty and achieve growth in today’s global economic landscape. In such an environment, customs administrations play a critical role not only in border security, combatting illicit transactions, and collecting revenue, but also in facilitating cross-border trade. For many poor countries, however, maintaining a modern and capable customs office remains a difficult endeavour. As a result, many multilateral organisations have responded with providing external financial assistance and technical support to build capacity within customs offices in the developing world. This report provides an end-review of the project “Customs Capacity Building for WCO Members 2012–2015,” funded by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) and implemented by the World Customs Organization (WCO). This project aimed not only to develop the knowledge and skills of customs officers, but likewise to assist the customs administration in applying modern management and customs practices. Beneficiaries of this project consisted of customs offices in the following seven countries: Liberia, Rwanda.

Russia’s New Asian Tilt: How Much Does Economy Matter?

The economic development of Russia’s Far East has been proclaimed a policy priority, to be facilitated by an ambitious turn or ‘pivot’ to Asia. This chapter assesses Russia’s economic reorientation towards Asia, offering an overview of the Far Eastern dimension of Russia’s economic relations with its major Asian partners in 2010–16, based on analysis of the dynamics of investment, trade relations and business climate development. Since 2014, trade with Asian partners has stagnated, while foreign investment (except for Chinese) has remained negligible. Moreover, trade is still mainly oriented towards markets in European Russia. The chapter concludes that Russia’s pivot to Asia has not yet become an economic pivot—and that such a turn would be more easily attainable under a non-sanctions regime.