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US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security

Elections on both sides of the Atlantic have highlighted diverging views and increasing tensions over the importance of the security alliance, which celebrates its 75th anniversary this year. The most impactful election will undoubtedly take place in the United States, where the two candidates present Europe with remarkably different challenges. The re-election of President Joseph Biden to a second consecutive term in office will largely represent continuity albeit few clear incentives to undertake the transformational changes necessary for Europe to adapt to an increasingly volatile security landscape. On the other hand, if former President Donald Trump secures a second term in the Oval Office, Europeans could see their transatlantic security alliance thrown into turmoil and could be forced to consider difficult and uncomfortable steps to strengthen their own security. Voters will also head to the polls across Europe, including in the highly anticipated European Parliament elections, which will shape the composition of the next iteration of EU institutions. However, most notable for Northern European security will be elections in the United Kingdom on July 4th, which could lead to a change in the governing party for the first time in 14 years. A recent commitment by Downing Street to increase defence spending to 2.5 % by 2030 – reaching £87 billion in that year – has upped the ante towards its Labour opposition, which has suggested a similar increase but without providing a specific timeframe. As the NATO Alliance prepares for a 75th anniversary celebration in Washington, DC, questions loom regarding its capacity to deter a potentially emboldened Russia, particularly considering the Kremlin’s recent advances in the war in Ukraine, now entering its third year. This analysis assesses the implications of the upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic. It combines perspectives from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway, and assesses implications for NATO, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and future security in Northern Europe.

  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • NATO
  • Europe
  • North America
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  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • NATO
  • Europe
  • North America
Articles
News
Articles
News

PODCAST: The votes that can shape European Security

How will the UK and US elections impact European security?
  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • NATO
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Event
09:00 - 10:00
NUPI
Engelsk
Event
09:00 - 10:00
NUPI
Engelsk
18. Jun 2024
Event
09:00 - 10:00
NUPI
Engelsk

Breakfast seminar: USA and geopolitics

Kenneth R. Weinstein will give us insight into US foreign policy and geopolitics at this seminar.

Articles
News
Articles
News

NUPI Researcher to Lead Expert Group

Niels Nagelhus Schia is set to lead an expert group that will examine how artificial intelligence can influence democratic elections.
  • Security policy
  • Cyber
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

Gendering Security Sector Reform through Capacity Building? The MINUSMA Specialized Police Team on Crime Scene Management

A key element of international peacebuilding efforts is support to reform of the security sector in conflict-affected states, for example through capacity building. From 2019 to 2022, a Norwegian-led police team provided capacity building in crime scene management to Malian security forces as part of the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA). The Norwegian officers organized courses and acted as mentors for the Malian officers. This article uses this case from MINUSMA to study how external support to reform can help promote gender perspectives in the security sector in conflict-affected countries. UN Security Council Resolution 1325 and the Women, Peace and Security Agenda call on UN member states to contribute to increasing women’s representation and the integration of gender perspectives in UN peace operations. Despite these political frameworks, the gender perspective is often ignored in practice when such support is offered. The analysis shows that the Norwegian officers worked actively to promote gender equality and women's participation, even though this was not a central part of the project, and without references to resolution 1325 or women or gender perspectives in the project document. Instead, the officers pointed to how promoting women's participation and gender equality are a part of “the way we work” (in Norway), as well as MINUSMA's mandate as the basis for this work. Feminist research distinguishes between a traditional and transformative approach to working with gender and security sector reform, where a traditional approach involves working within existing structures to, for example, increase women's participation or for women to receive the same type of training or capacity. A transformative approach, on the other hand, will involve taking a closer look at these structures, and looking at how women's roles in the security sector are affected by societal, cultural and religious norms. The article finds that the work has mainly relied on traditional understandings of gender, and that the opportunities for capacity building to contribute to deeper changes in the security sector are therefore limited. The findings thus further indicate that individual officers can do a lot to promote women's participation and gender perspectives, but deeper transformation of the security sector will probably require action at a more structural level.

  • Security policy
  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
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  • Security policy
  • Africa
  • Peace operations
  • Conflict
Articles
News
Articles
News

Zooming in on the U.S.

In June, we offer three events focusing on the U.S. The topics include American foreign policy and relations with several other countries, geopolitics, the US election, and global security.
  • Security policy
  • International economics
  • Trade
  • Globalisation
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • Europe
  • Asia
  • North America
  • Governance
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How ad hoc coalitions deinstitutionalize international institutions
Podcast

How ad hoc coalitions deinstitutionalize international institutions

As ad hoc coalitions (AHCs) proliferate, particularly on the African continent, two questions crystallize. First, what consequences do they bring...

  • Africa
  • Governance
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • AU
  • Africa
  • Governance
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • AU
Articles
New research
Articles
New research

PODCAST: How ad hoc coalitions deinstitutionalize international institutions

A new episode of NUPI's podcast The World Stage investigates the consequences ad hoc coalitions bring, and how they can be captured an explored.
  • Africa
  • Governance
  • International organizations
  • United Nations
  • AU
Anniken Elise Erlandsen
Researchers

Anniken Elise Erlandsen

Research assistant

Anniken is a research assistant at the Research group for Security and defence, primarily working at the Consortium for Terrorism Research. She ho...

  • Security policy
  • Terrorism and extremism
  • Nationalism
  • Comparative methods
  • Security policy
  • Terrorism and extremism
  • Nationalism
  • Comparative methods
Publications
Publications
Annika Hilding Norberg, Robert Mood, Apurba Kumar Bardalai

United Nations Truce Supervision Organization Role, Relevance, Function, and Utility – Lessons for Future Peace Operations

The aim of the study is, firstly, to assess the role, relevance, function, and utility of UNTSO, and secondly, to identify what lessons can be learnt from UNTSO’s model and experience that can help to inform the future of UN peace operations in the context of the UN Secretary-General’s policy brief on a New Agenda for Peace, as well as in the preparations for the Summit of the Future. The effectiveness of peace operations is dependent on the political backing, financial support, and deployment of trained peacekeepers by the UN Member States. While recognising the important roles of the UN missions, the UN Secretariat, host states, and other key stakeholders and contributors, the primary audience for the present study’s findings and recommendations is the UN Security Council and UN Member States. Although the study is primarily focused on UN peace operations, it is suggested that the findings can also be informative for strengthening the role of observers in other organisations, including regional organisations, and can enhance cooperation between different organisations in dealing with peace and security issues. As outlined in Our Common Agenda, an emerging “networked multilateral system” requires enhanced and specialised capabilities, and broader thinking for wider application and cooperation beyond the immediate organisation and structure of current peace operations.

  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Peace operations
  • United Nations
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  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Peace operations
  • United Nations
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