From possible conflict to wartime cooperation: Laying the foundations of regional cooperation in the Caspian Sea (2002–2018)
This research paper uses snapshots of media coverage in the Caspian states to explore the stateled region-building efforts around the Caspian Sea from 2002–2018. Counter to the dominant conflict thesis in the literature, the findings suggest that the five states have moved towards more comprehensive political and economic cooperation. Relations have gradually been anchored in an understanding of the Caspian Sea as a shared space with multiple interlinkages and dependencies, even describing it as a “sea of peace and friendship”. This depiction is maintained by the Caspian states, also after the Sea became an arena and lifeline for Russia’s war against Ukraine after February 2022. This paper provides background and analysis of the developing regional cooperation and explores in the conclusion how this cooperation has gained new salience in Russia’s response to the sanction regime.
NUPI to provide research support to Denmark in the UN Security Council
Digital Borders, Global Ties: The EU’s Dual Quest for Cybersecurity and Digital Sovereignty
The EU's approach to ‘digital sovereignty’ and cybersecurity addresses concerns about geopolitical instability, data ownership, and control over critical digital infrastructure. This policy brief highlights the EU’s ambiguous claim to digital sovereignty, which is not only about controlling the internal digital space but also about navigating external dependencies. As the EU seeks to reduce reliance on external actors and increase autonomy in its digital space, it must navigate the risks of isolation from global markets. This creates a delicate balance between strengthening (cyber)security and fostering international cooperation. The forthcoming EU Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) is illustrative of this tension; while the CRA aims to strengthen digital resilience and autonomy, it underscores the need for the EU to protect its digital borders whilst integrated in the global digital economy. This push for autonomy must account for international interdependencies, especially in cybersecurity, where external partnerships remain crucial. Ultimately, the EU must adopt a nuanced approach that aligns ambitions toward digital sovereignty with the realities of an interconnected world.
The Impact of the US Presidential Election on European Security
In cooperation with The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) in London and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, NUPI is co-hosting a briefing on the impact of the US presidential election result on European security. This event is part of the Transatlantic Security research project between the three parties.
Techno-optimism versus Techno-reality: An analysis of internationally funded technological solutions against illegal unreported and unregulated (IU...
Maritime governance has been immersed in growing techno-optimism. Technological developments have largely increased the capacity of states to render legible activities at sea and thus more effectively govern them. One area in which such techno-optimism has gained force but is yet to prove itself is the fight against Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated (IUU) fishing. While technology-aided international cooperation has been crucial in curbing piracy, it has been slower to tame IUU fishing. In this article, we study international projects introducing technology-based solutions against IUU fishing in West Africa. Triangulating project documentation, donor evaluations, interviews, and other secondary sources, we assess how the techno-optimism driving those initiatives meets the techno-reality of their contexts of implementation. We find that, while grounds for optimism are far from unwarranted, realizing the potential of technological solutions against IUU fishing requires securing parallel cooperation that allows states to transform technology-based awareness into action.
No Escape - On the frontlines of Climate Change, Conflict and Forced Displacement
The report, released today by UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, in collaboration with 13 expert organizations, research institutions and refugee-led groups, uses the latest data to show how climate shocks are interacting with conflict, pushing those who are already in danger into even more dire situations. Of the more than 120 million forcibly displaced worldwide, three-quarters live in countries heavily impacted by climate change. Half are in places affected by both conflict and serious climate hazards, such as Ethiopia, Haiti, Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan and Syria. Authors: (in alphabetical order) Rabeb Aloui (YOUNGO), Vicente Anzellini (IDMC), Ashleigh Basel (Alliance/CGIAR), Jana Birner (UNHCR), Oli Brown (Alp Analytica), Alessandro Craparo (Alliance/CGIAR), Cedric De Coning (NUPI), Margot Fortin (IMPACT Initiatives), Ruby Haji-Naif (YOUNGO), Xiao-Fen Hernan (IDMC), Rose Kobusinge (YOUNGO), Ochan Leomoi (Dadaab Response Association), Jasper Linke (IMPACT Initiatives), Sandor Madar (Alp Analytica), Brigitte Melly (Alliance/CGIAR), Giuliana Nicolucci-Altman (Alp Analytica), Henintsoa Onivola Minoarivelo (Alliance/CGIAR), Mohamed Othowa (Community Aid Network), Sylvain Ponserre (IDMC), Jonathan Tsoka (Alliance/ CGIAR), Cascade Tuholske (Montana State University), Jamon Van Den Hoek (Oregon State University), Kira Vinke (DGAP), Jeremy Wetterwald (IMPACT Initiatives), Michelle Yonetani (UNHCR), Andrew Zimmer (Montana State University).
Improving UN peacekeeping performance through evidence-based impact assessments
This is the most critical material for the green transition
Trump Back in the Driver's Seat
Reforming the International Financial Architecture: Chinese Perspectives and Broader Developing Country Interests
The international financial architecture has long been ripe for reform, and several reform tracks are currently evolving with the potential to tackle some of the most debated issues. China, which among the top shareholders in all the architecture’s key institutions, is the world’s second-largest economy and the largest official bilateral creditor, plays a critical role in reform discussions. In this report, we discuss central reform issues and consider the Chinese perspectives and their relevance to broader developing country interests. The report concludes that China is actively involved and supports reform initiatives but is wary of changes that move around the bigger issue of country representation and voting.