Forsker
Cedric H. de Coning
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Sammendrag
Cedric de Coning er forsker 1 i Forskningsgruppen for fred, konflikt og utvikling ved Norsk utenrikspolitisk institutt (NUPI).
Han forsker på hvordan FN og andre multilaterale institusjoner bedre kan bidra til varig fred og sikkerhet, særlig gjennom mekling, fredsoperasjoner og fredsbygging. Med utgangspunkt i kompleksitetsteori har han utviklet Adaptive Peace (adaptiv fred), et rammeverk for å opprettholde fred og sikkerhet i en stadig mer urolig og uforutsigbar verdensorden.
Ved NUPI leder han flere internasjonale forskningsprosjekter om klima, fred og sikkerhet, om kunstig intelligens i freds- og sikkerhetsarbeid og om hvor godt fredsoperasjoner virker. Han bidrar også i programmet Training for Peace og i prosjektet UN Peace and Stabilisation Operations.
De Coning er seniorrådgiver for den sørafrikanske organisasjonen ACCORD og sjefredaktør for tidsskriftet African Journal on Conflict Resolution. Han har bakgrunn som sørafrikansk diplomat og har tjenestegjort i FNs fredsbevarende styrker. Han har hatt flere rådgiverroller for Den afrikanske union og FN, blant annet i FNs generalsekretærs rådgivende styre for FNs fredsbyggingsfond.
Ekspertise
Utdanning
2012 PhD, Applied Ethics, Department of Philosophy, University of Stellenbosch
2005 M.A., Conflict Management and Peace Studies, University of KwaZula-Natal
Arbeidserfaring
2020- Forsker I, NUPI 2012-2020 Seniorforsker, NUPI
2006-2012 Forsker, NUPI
2002- Seniorrådgiver (konsulent), ACCORD
2002 Opplæringsrådgiver, FNs avdeling for fredsbevarende operasjoner (DPKO)
2001-2002 Politisk rådgiver, FNs spesialutsendings kontor (Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, SRSG), FNs overgangsmyndighet i Øst-Timor (UNTAET)
1999-2001 Civil Affairs Officer for FNs overgangsmyndighet i Øst-Timor (UNTAET)
2000 Assisterende direktør, ACCORD
1997-1999 Leder for ACCORDs fredsbevaringprogram
1988-1997 Sør-Afrikas utenriksdepartement
Aktivitet
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Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Libya
Libya er utsatt for en rekke klimautfordringer. I september 2023, forårsaket stormen Daniel kraftig nedbør og flom, og utløste kollapsen av to eldre demninger i det østlige Libya. Dette etterlot et spor av ødeleggelse i byen Derna og områdene rundt. Libya er også et av de tørreste og mest vann-stressede landene i verden; det er utsatt for tørke og mindre enn to prosent av landet får nok regn til opprettholde jordbruket. Klimastressfaktorer forverres i sin tur av politisk uro, splittede myndigheter, langvarig konflikt og tilstedeværelsen av en mengde væpnede grupper. Disse faktorene, som har bidratt til korrupsjon og mangel på god styring, påvirker innsatser for å håndtere klimarelaterte risikoer, inkludert de som kan påvirke freds- og sikkerhetsdynamikken.
Hvordan forstå Den afrikanske unions posisjon i en global orden i endring med bakgrunn i AUs rolle i Somalia og Sudan?
Amani Africa og NUPI har gleden av å invitere til et seminar om AUs posisjon i en skiftende global orden, med særlig fokus på unionens roller i G20 og engasjement i Somalia og Sudan.
United Nations Truce Supervision Organization Role, Relevance, Function, and Utility – Lessons for Future Peace Operations
The aim of the study is, firstly, to assess the role, relevance, function, and utility of UNTSO, and secondly, to identify what lessons can be learnt from UNTSO’s model and experience that can help to inform the future of UN peace operations in the context of the UN Secretary-General’s policy brief on a New Agenda for Peace, as well as in the preparations for the Summit of the Future. The effectiveness of peace operations is dependent on the political backing, financial support, and deployment of trained peacekeepers by the UN Member States. While recognising the important roles of the UN missions, the UN Secretariat, host states, and other key stakeholders and contributors, the primary audience for the present study’s findings and recommendations is the UN Security Council and UN Member States. Although the study is primarily focused on UN peace operations, it is suggested that the findings can also be informative for strengthening the role of observers in other organisations, including regional organisations, and can enhance cooperation between different organisations in dealing with peace and security issues. As outlined in Our Common Agenda, an emerging “networked multilateral system” requires enhanced and specialised capabilities, and broader thinking for wider application and cooperation beyond the immediate organisation and structure of current peace operations.
A Comparative Study Of Older One-Dimensional UN Peace Operations: Is the Future of UN Peacekeeping its Past?
Over the last few decades, the focus has been on the UN’s large multidimensional peacekeeping missions in Africa. However, half of the UN’s current peacekeeping missions are small observation-type operations that were first established during the Cold War in places like Cyprus, the Golan and Lebanon. This report asks if this type of smaller and less intrusive mission will become more prominent again as we enter a new period of great power rivalry and turbulence. These observation-type operations have been useful for preventing escalation by monitoring ceasefire lines or buffer-zones, but they are not suited for peacemaking and need to be complimented with envoys and diplomats that work to resolve the larger political issues along with members of the Security Council and host nations. The report recommends that peace operations (consisting of a variety of options for a diversity of needs and contexts) should be at the core of the “New Agenda for Peace”, envisaged by António Guterres to be presented at the General Assembly by September 2023. If a new era of great power rivalry requires the UN to once again adapt UN peacekeeping, then its experience through observation and monitoring operations, will provide it with a rich resource of options and models to choose from.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Myanmar
Myanmar har en av verdens høyeste konsentrasjoner av mennesker som er sårbare for påvirkningene av klimaendringer, da 40 % av befolkningen bor i lavtliggende områder langs kysten. Etter et militærkupp i 2021 ble State Administration Council (SAC) møtt med stor motstand som igjen trigget konfrontasjoner med etnisk væpnede organisasjoner (EAOer) og lokale antijunta-militser. Konflikt har forsterket landets sårbarhet for klimaendring og miljømessig degradering.
Climate change and peacebuilding: sub-themes of an emerging research agenda
Klimaendringer har dype effekter på global sikkerhet og fredsbygging. Mens eksisterende forskning hovedsakelig har fokusert på sammenhengen mellom klimaendringer og konflikt, har den i stor grad oversett det komplekse samspillet mellom klimaendringer, konfliktrammede stater og fredsbygging. Klimaendringer forverrer eksisterende sårbarheter i konfliktrammede samfunn ved å legge til stress i levebrødet og påvirke mat-, vann- og energisikkerheten negativt. Dette er spesielt bekymringsfullt ettersom klimaendringene ofte merkes mest akutt i omgivelser der offentlige institusjoner allerede ikke klarer å møte befolkningens behov. Følgelig kan klimaendringer bidra til å forverre situasjonen og hindre evnen til å opprettholde, forsterke og bygge fred. Selv om utøvere i fredsbyggingsfeltet har begynt å reagere på effektene av klimaendringer, har akademisk forskning ikke i tilstrekkelig grad adressert spørsmålet om hvordan klimaendringer påvirker fredsbygging og hvordan fredsbyggingsstrategier kan reagere effektivt. For å fylle dette gapet er det nødvendig med en tverrfaglig tilnærming som trekker fra klimasikkerhet, miljøfredsbygging, miljøstudier og freds- og konfliktstudier for å utvikle en forskningsagenda som omfatter skjæringspunktene mellom klimaendringer og fredsbygging. Ved å erkjenne viktigheten av klimaendringer i fredsbyggingsarbeid, tar denne forskningsagendaen sikte på å gi kritisk innsikt og veilede fremtidige studier.
A Forgotten People in An Unstable Region - The Effectiveness of the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei Executive Summary
Established in June 2011, UNISFA aims to foster peace, stability, and development in the disputed Abyei region. Focused on implementing the Abyei Protocol, the mission addresses border demarcation (through the Joint Border Verification Monitoring Mechanism for the Sudan-South Sudan boundary since South Sudan’s independence in 2011) and security concerns and supports local governance through engagement with administrations. However, since 2011, UNISFA’s effectiveness in fulfilling its mandate and protecting civilians has been questioned as sporadic and spontaneous violence remains very high. While the overall security situation in Abyei has shown signs of improvement, persistent conflict dynamics stemming from intra- and inter-communal tensions, hired armed elements, and humanitarian challenges continue to set the region back. The rise of communal conflicts between new ethnicities and communities entering the “Abyei box” – often referred to as the Abyei area – has led to further tensions with the mission over its ability to protect civilians. In this Effectiveness of Peace Operations Network (EPON) study, the authors set out to explore the effectiveness of UNISFA in meeting its mandated tasks in several areas. These include: 1. Protect civilians under imminent threat of physical violence; 2. Support the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism; 3. Provide de-mining assistance, technical advice, and security; and 4. Provide aid to humanitarian personnel and oil infrastructure in the Abyei Administrative Area (AAA), respectively. The report examines how effective the mission has been in meeting its core mandate, what we can understand from the mission’s success and challenges, and how adaptive the mission has been regarding the ongoing crisis in Sudan and South Sudan and its impact on Abyei, which has strategic and broader implications for the mission. Co-authors Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie – Senior Fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and Training for Peace Programme. Dr Fiifi Edu-Afful – Visiting Fulbright Scholar-in-Residence at the American University School of International Service and the University of Maryland Department of Government & Politics. He was formerly a Senior Research Fellow at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC). Contributing authors Christian Ulfsten – former Research Assistant with the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Ruth Adwoa Frimpong – Project Consultant with the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ) Nigeria. EPON series editor Dr Cedric de Coning, Research Professor – Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).
A Forgotten People in an Unstable Region - The Effectiveness of the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei
Established in June 2011, UNISFA aims to foster peace, stability, and development in the disputed Abyei region. Focused on implementing the Abyei Protocol, the mission addresses border demarcation (through the Joint Border Verification Monitoring Mechanism for the Sudan-South Sudan boundary since South Sudan’s independence in 2011) and security concerns and supports local governance through engagement with administrations. However, since 2011, UNISFA’s effectiveness in fulfilling its mandate and protecting civilians has been questioned as sporadic and spontaneous violence remains very high. While the overall security situation in Abyei has shown signs of improvement, persistent conflict dynamics stemming from intra- and inter-communal tensions, hired armed elements, and humanitarian challenges continue to set the region back. The rise of communal conflicts between new ethnicities and communities entering the “Abyei box” – often referred to as the Abyei area – has led to further tensions with the mission over its ability to protect civilians. In this Effectiveness of Peace Operations Network (EPON) study, the authors set out to explore the effectiveness of UNISFA in meeting its mandated tasks in several areas. These include: 1. Protect civilians under imminent threat of physical violence; 2. Support the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism; 3. Provide de-mining assistance, technical advice, and security; and 4. Provide aid to humanitarian personnel and oil infrastructure in the Abyei Administrative Area (AAA), respectively. The report examines how effective the mission has been in meeting its core mandate, what we can understand from the mission’s success and challenges, and how adaptive the mission has been regarding the ongoing crisis in Sudan and South Sudan and its impact on Abyei, which has strategic and broader implications for the mission. Co-authors Dr Andrew E. Yaw Tchie – Senior Fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and Training for Peace Programme. Dr Fiifi Edu-Afful – Visiting Fulbright Scholar-in-Residence at the American University School of International Service and the University of Maryland Department of Government & Politics. He was formerly a Senior Research Fellow at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC). Contributing authors Christian Ulfsten – former Research Assistant with the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Ruth Adwoa Frimpong – Project Consultant with the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ) Nigeria. EPON series editor Dr Cedric de Coning, Research Professor – Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI).