Åsmund Weltzien

Eksport av tjenester og potensialet for økt verdiskapning i Norge : En empirisk kartlegging

Dette notatet gir en empirisk gjennomgang av norske tjenestenæringsers eksport, og foretar en sammenligning med trekkene i andre land. Videre gjøres det rede for omfanget av handelsbarrierer hos sentrale handelspartnere. Rapporten drøfter betydningen av direkte utenlandske investeringer i handelen med tjenester og gir en oversikt over tall for slike investeringer. Videre presenteres et rammeverk for vurdering av potensialet for økt verdiskapning blant tjenesteeksportørene. Vi gjennomfører en kvantitativ analyse av verdiskapningspotensialet basert på ulike mål, og gir policy-relaterte anbefalinger vedrørende hvilke tjenestesektorer man bør satse på i fremtidige GATS-forhandlinger for å nå høyest mulig verdiskapning i Norge. Det vises at til tross for at Norge har en relativt liten tjenestesektor, er andelen av tjenester i totaleksporten høy. Dette knytter seg primært til aktivitetene innen utenriks sjøfart. Sammenligninger med andre industrialiserte land viser at norske tjenestenæringer investerer lite i utlandet.

Nuclear Dimensions of the Iraqi Crisis

Ways of improvement in the Russian labour market with emphasis on the shadow employment

The report discusses the main peculiarities of the Russian labour market, such as the relatively low unemployment, the prevailing shadow labour relationships and the overmanning in the public sector. The report is organised as follows. The first part aims to highlight the main aspects of the Russian labour market development and some peculiarities of the shadow employment in Russia. The second part presents the model, and applications of possible government policies for the labour market are discussed in the third part. The last part concludes.

Creating Security through Immigration Control: An analysis of European immigration discourse and the development towards a common EU asylum and imm...

The purpose of this report is to discuss the extent to which immigration has come to be perceived as a security threat by European Union (EU) policy makers. The manner in which immigration issues are presented by policy makers at the European level is assumed to have substantive implications for the choice of instruments in the area. A second purpose is therefore to discuss the extent to which the development towards a common EU asylum and immigration policy can be interpreted as security policy strategy. Increased immigration during the last few decades has coincided with increasing unemployment and economic restructuring in Western Europe. The issue of immigration became increasingly sensitive in the late 1980s after the collapse of communism in Central and Eastern Europe, when a tide of illegal immigrants was expected to inundate the West. Today, images of ships loaded with refugees off the shores of Italy, or of trucks filled with illegal immigrants crossing the English Channel, have become disturbing, but no longer rare features of European newspaper headlines. The impression is that of Europe being ‘swamped’, and unable to deal with the hordes of people standing outside its gates wanting in.Since the aim of this report is to examine the change that has taken place in European perspectives on immigration, a study of political discourse will enable us to deconstruct a number of justificatory domains, which are supported by the members of the European policy community. The main hypothesis is that security considerations are clearly reflected in the establishment and development of asylum and immigration instruments following the Amsterdam programme. Another hypothesis is that the framing of immigration as a security threat has legitimised the introduction of objectives and instruments that have their origin in security policy. This is notably to be seen in the accession agreements with the Central and Eastern European applicant countries, as well in the so-called ‘partnership-agreements’ with immigrant countries of origin and transit. Having established the broader aim of this report, I propose two main and inter linked questions as the framework for the analysis: First: To what extent has the issue of asylum and immigration come to be seen as a security threat, and thus as a security matter at the EU level? Second: To what extent is the above question reflected in the objectives and instruments of the common EU asylum and immigration policy? Can the development towards a common EU asylum and immigration policy be called a security policy strategy?

Partnership and Discord: Russia and the construction of a post Cold War security architecture in Europe 1991–2000

This study analyses Russia’s approach to the construction of a post-Cold War security architecture in Europe from 1991 to 2000. The author examines tensions, contradictions and ambiguities in Russia’s policy that contributed to making both partnership and discord ingredients to Russian–Western security relations. For instance, how can we understand Russia’s intense opposition to NATO enlargement and NATO’s out-of-area operations in light of Russia’s own formalised cooperation with the Western alliance? And how can we conceive of Moscow’s enduring position that the OSCE should be the ‘cornerstone’ of Europe’s security architecture, considering what many observers have interpreted as Russian obstruction of, and non-compliance with, OSCE decisions and norms? The author seeks to answer these questions by tracing the Russian debate on national identity and foreign policy that emerged in the wake of Soviet dissolution.

Damage Limitation and Decline in Institutional Powers: Russia’s Perception of the EU as a Security Actor 1999–2002

The report will discuss whether or not Russian interest and endorsement of the EU’s security and defense dimension repeated the overall strategic perspective of the Primakov doctrine, which aimed at counterbalancing US unipolarism by playing on the differences between the US and Europe in international affairs. I ask this question since analysts are not equivocal to this end. Some suggest that “Primakov’s fall from power has not undercut the importance of multipolarity in Russian foreign policy. By analyzing perceptions, I seek to highlight the dominating trends in the discourse on the EU in Russia. This involves a broad orientation with regard to sources. Russia has engaged in a comprehensive debate on relating to the EU and NATO within the field of security, and the report draws on vast material from the security debate within research circles and official speeches and newspaper reports. Perceptions will be linked to the interpretive approaches of damage limitation or declining institutional powers. A definition of these two approaches will be given below.

Strengthening Cooperative Threat Reduction with Russia : The Norwegian Experience

Many nuclear safety and security challenges remain in Northwest Russia. Years of international cooperation – and substantial funding – are required to deal with the legacy of the extensive nuclear activities of the Cold War. Among the more urgent projects that call for international attention are the safe dismantling of nuclear attack submarines and clean-up at naval storage facilities, e.g. at Andreeva Bay. For nearly a decade, Norway and other countries have been working cooperatively with Russia to improve the situation. While important progress has been made, much of the foreign support has come with some hard-learned experiences. However, the dialog established, the cooperative framework institutionalized, and today’s understanding of the respective concerns, priorities, and practices of the actors involved should create a sound basis for new rounds of cooperative and concerted efforts to limit the persistent nuclear security and safety risks in the region. In this report, past and ongoing activities for remedial actions in Northwest Russia are assessed, and suggestions for continued and improved cooperation are presented. The survey has been conducted as part of the Norwegian contribution to the international research consortium on «Strengthening the Global Partnership: Protecting Against the Spread of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons».

Kan valg av eksportmarked forklares med teorien om investeringer under usikkerhet? En økonomisk studie av atferden til norske fiskeeksportører

I denne artikkelen gjøres det rede for hvordan nye teorier for investeringer under usikkerhet kan anvendes til å forklare bedrifters eksportbeslutninger. Det gis en empirisk analyse basert på eksportadferden til norske fiskeeksportører. Valg av eksportdestinasjon er søkt forklart ved ulike landspesifikke egenskaper, samt opplysningen om hvorvidt bedriften har eksporterfaring til landet. Hvis valg av eksportdestinasjon medfører ugjenkallelige investeringer, vil teorien for investeringer under usikkerhet predikere at høy valutakurs-usikkerhet reduserer sannsynligheten for å etablere seg i et marked. Jeg finner at inneværende års valutakurs-usikkerhet gir signifikant effekt på sannsynligheten for å være i et marked. Derimot finner jeg ingen signifikant effekt av denne variabelen for valg av eksportland for førstegangsetablerere. Alternative forklaringsvariable med signifikant effekt er korrupsjonsindeksen CPI, velstandsnivå, geografisk avstand og markedets størrelse. Tilstedeværelsen av andre norske eksportbedrifter påvirket eksportbeslutningen positivt, noe som tyder på eksistens av positive eksternaliteter i eksportaktiviteten. Persistens i eksportstatus gir tentativ støtte til eksistensen av ugjenkallelige kostnader.

French, UK, and US Policies to Support Peacekeeping in Africa: Current Status and Future Prospects

In May 1997, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced their joint “P-3 Initiative”, to harmonize their peacekeeping capacity-building programs in Africa and foster an open dialogue between donors and recipients. The capacity-building programs of France, the UK and the US have since undergone numerous transformations. The centerpiece of French policy, the Renforcement des capacités Africaines de maintien de la paix (RECAMP) has had comparatively few changes to its basic structure, but has been scaled down. The UK African Peacekeeping Training Support Programme has given way to a much larger and more ambitious initiative. The US African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI) has evolved significantly and will undergo a more fundamental change in 2002, including shedding its name. Moreover, Washington initiated a new capacity-building policy in 2001, which dwarfed ACRI in terms of resources and introduced the provision of lethal equipment. In November 2001, the “P-3” met in London to assess their programs. They could take satisfaction that progress had been made on a number of levels. Much more importantly, however, the three partners have created little in the way of synergy. A question that cuts to the core of the capacitybuilding programs is: Does the training or equipment offered make African recipients any more willing or able to undertake peacekeeping on their continent? The answer is far from clear. As for the enhanced capacity, much of what is being offered is of questionable value. To some extent, France, the UK, and the US have acknowledged some of their own programs’ limitations, and they are attempting to redress these weaknesses. Government officials are now much more receptive to criticism and suggestions for change.

Multinationals Searching for R&D Spillovers : A Survey of the Literature

This paper surveys the literature on R&D and technology spillovers as a motive for FDI. During the last years, a growing body of theoretical studies has generated formal arguments supporting the economic rationale for such behaviour. Yet, theoretical contributions are clustered within a few schools and a wider approach is necessary in order to understand the mechanisms that relate R&D spillovers to FDI. The empirical literature is more numerous, but provides ambiguous conclusions with respect to the strength of this motive. Micro studies provide less supportive results as compared to studies based on more aggregate data. Studies based on patent information are generally supportive to the existence of this motive.