Publications
What can public opinion data tell us about Putin’s grip on power in Russia?
Support for Russian President Vladimir Putin is a qualitatively different concept than support for an elected executive in a democracy. It is essential to understand these differences to interpret public opinion data in Russia. This knowledge paper discusses that there is little evidence of widespread preference falsification in Russian public opinion data regarding support for the government and its policies as of yet, but preference falsification could increase with greater repression in Russia. Moreover, Putin’s popularity has decreased substantially over the spring and summer 2026, but remains high in both absolute terms and relative to his popularity prior to the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There is great variation across age and ethnic groups in terms of support for Putin, while support for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine varies substantially by age, gender and ethnic identity.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somaila*
Somalia continues to grapple with increasingly severe and frequent climate shocks that impede people’s livelihoods, worsen the existing humanitarian crisis and influence local conflict dynamics over access to natural resources. In November 2025, after four consecutive failed rainy seasons had affected millions of people, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) declared a national drought emergency. Strong El Niño conditions are forecast to bring wetter-than-usual conditions during the October–December 2026 deyr rainy season, with a high risk of floods in central and southern Somalia. Some communities experience successive periods of drought and flooding without sufficient time to recover between shocks. These adverse effects of climate change are interacting with a volatile security situation, influenced by political competition and fragmentation, as well as continued clashes with al-Shabab, which contribute to deepening an already dire humanitarian crisis.
NB8 and the Drone Challenge
Drone incursions in the Baltic States and Finland have made clear that this is no longer a distant battlefield concern. This brief argues that as the NB8 framework matures into an increasingly like-minded security community, drone cooperation could stimulate market integration. A standardised, modular drone platform architecture, a European drone defence “Platform market” model, could give the countries the economy of scale that they otherwise lack.
The Adaptive Peacebuilding Guidebook
When we hear the word “peace”, we often think of the end of a war, a peace agreement, or large-scale reconstruction efforts that follow a conflict. In reality, however, peace does not emerge the day after a conflict ends. Rather, it is nurtured gradually through everyday interactions, relationships, and collective efforts. Peace is not something that can be delivered from the outside; it is something that emerges from within societies and communities themselves. The “Adaptive Peacebuilding Guidebook” seeks to translate this understanding into a practical framework through the approach known as Adaptive Peacebuilding. The academic foundations, theories, and concepts underpinning Adaptive Peacebuilding have already been articulated in the book Adaptive Peacebuilding: A New Approach to Sustaining Peace in the 21st Century . Adaptive Peacebuilding views peacebuilding not as a process of implementing predetermined plans or applying universal solutions, but as a process through which people learn, reflect, and adapt collectively in response to changing circumstances. Based on the academic insights presented in that book, the newly published guidebook to Adaptive Peacebuilding clearly summarizes the concept of Adaptive Peacebuilding for practitioners and presents eight case studies from United Nations agencies, bilateral development agencies such as JICA, and NGOs.
From the Primacy of Politics to Benchmarks: Realising UNISFA’s Protection of Civilians Approach in Abyei
Situated between the disputed borders of South Sudan and Sudan, the Abyei region (also referred to as “the Box”) has been characterised by political uncertainty, insecurity, and competing claims to authority. Over the years, Abyei has become increasingly volatile, with a mix of criminal activity, large-scale seasonal incursions, armed persistent intrusion, and highly localised cross-border dynamics. These developments have not only defined everyday life in Abyei but have also become intertwined with broader conflict dynamics in both Sudan and South Sudan. In response to tensions surrounding the region, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) established the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) through Resolution 1990 on 27 June 2011. Since its deployment, UNISFA has been mandated to maintain peace and security, support stability and development, facilitate the implementation of the Abyei Protocol, and contribute to border demarcation through the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM). The mission has also played a critical role in supporting local governance structures and fostering engagement between communities and administrations. However, the political and security landscape of Abyei has changed considerably since 2011, presenting new challenges for the mission.
Revising the Post-2022 Arctic Security Literature
This paper reviews the state of the art in security research on the European Arctic, focusing primarily on work published since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Topics discussed include the reordering of Arctic cooperation following the NATO enlargement, Russian military modernisation, China’s role as an Arctic actor and the risk of conflict in the region. The paper concludes by setting out key issues for future research.
From European Coalitions to a European Security Council
In the past years, coalitions have become the standard response to move forward when consensus is proving too time-consuming. John Karlsrud and Yf Reykers argue in this brief that it is time to move from coalitions to a European security council, making the European institutional architecture again fit for purpose.
Polhavet Arctic Ocean 2050: Implementation Plan (2026 -2028)
Polhavet / Arctic Ocean 2050 unites Norwegian and international scientific expertise in a 10-year programme to understand the present and guide the future of the Arctic Ocean. Through interdisciplinary research and innovation and international collaboration, the program me will deliver knowledge and tools for sustainable use, conservation, and geopolitical resilience in a changing Arctic. This Implementation Plan covers the period 2026 -2028 and details the specific tasks the 18 partner organizations in the Norwegian Consortium plans to work on in this period. Co-author from NUPI is Elana Wilson Rowe. Other authors are: A., Årthun, M., Dodd, P., Jentoft, S., Renaud, P., Müller, M., Dankel, D., Bertino, L., Bluhm, B., De Lucia, V., Ellingsen, K., Husum, K., Ingvaldsen, R., Jensen, Ø., Jørgensen, L. L., Jørgensen, S. L., Langehaug, H ., Mooney, P., Østhagen, A., Øverjordet, I. B., Oye, V., Pedersen, M. P., Skodvin, K. E., Søreide, J. E., Sørensen, A., Storelvmo, T., Thorsnes, T., Tjiputra, J., Wilson Rowe, E. & Yoccoz, N.
Polhavet Arctic Ocean 2050: Science Plan
Polhavet / Arctic Ocean 2050 unites Norwegian and international scientific expertise in a 10-year programme to understand the present and guide the future of the Arctic Ocean . Through interdisciplinary research and innovation and international collaboration , the programme will deliver knowledge and tools for sustainable use, conservation, and geopolitical resilience in a changing Arctic. This Science Plan was written by the Polhavet / Arctic Ocean 2050 working group established by the 18 partner institutions. Co-author from NUPI is Elana Wilson Rowe. Other authors are: A., Årthun, M., Dodd, P., Jentoft, S., Renaud, P., Müller, M., Dankel, D., Bertino, L., Bluhm, B., De Lucia, V., Ellingsen, K., Husum, K., Ingvaldsen, R., Jensen, Ø., Jørgensen, L. L., Jørgensen, S. L., Langehaug, H ., Mooney, P., Østhagen, A., Øverjordet, I. B., Oye, V., Pedersen, M. P., Skodvin, K. E., Søreide, J. E., Sørensen, A., Storelvmo, T., Thorsnes, T., Tjiputra, J., Wilson Rowe, E. & Yoccoz, N.
Norsk forsvarsvilje og forsvarsevne: Hva kan vi lære fra Ukraina?
Hva skaper forsvarsvilje og hvordan vedlikeholdes den? Russlands angrepskrig i Ukraina og hvordan Ukraina har maktet å stå imot gir oss et unikt vindu for å undersøke og forstå disse spørsmålene. I denne rapporten benyttes nylig innsamlede data fra Ukraina for å kartlegge og forstå grunnlaget for Ukrainas forsvarsvilje. Dette gjennomgås i rapportens første del. I den andre delen brukes dataene fra Ukraina til å diskutere hva dette innebærer for norsk forsvarsvilje. Hvilke av erfaringene og lærdommene fra Ukraina er relevante for Norge? Hva er grunnlaget for norsk forsvarsvilje og hvilke utfordringer står Norge ovenfor når forsvarsviljen ikke bare må opprettholdes, men også styrkes?