“U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to dismantle the so-called liberal order through challenges to NATO, NAFTA, the WTO and the Paris climate accord raise the question of whether the prospects for Chinese global dominance have improved markedly.

While American allies are riding out the storm for now, the tumult Trump leaves in his wake wherever he goes is already creating space for Chinese leadership on a host of issues.

It’s no secret that Chinese President Xi Jinping sees China as the world’s natural leader. Since taking office in late 2012, he has pushed forward the massive Belt and Road project and dozens of new economic and diplomatic deals. Xi has also vowed to make China fully developed by 2035 so that it can take the lead for the new “community of the common destiny of humankind” by 2050.

Does Trump’s “abdication” mean we are headed for a world run by the Chinese?

International relations scholarship is dominated by materialist theories of hegemony, the political, economic or military predominance or control of one state over others. These theories suggest that the rise of an economically powerful state is sufficient to trigger a hegemonic transition. The most powerful states set the rules of the game. The rise of China’s economy will lead to Chinese military dominance and ultimately to Chinese leadership of international order.”

This is what Srdjan Vucetic and his collaborators question based on their latest paper “The Distribution of Identity and the Future of International Order: China's Hegemonic Prospects” On 26 October he will visit NUPI to discuss this.

Srdjan Vucetic is Associate Professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs (GSPIA-ÉSAPI), University of Ottawa. His Research interests are international politics, including foreign and defence policy, identity, arms trade, and the Yugoslav region.

Research Director at NUPI Ole Jacob Sending will moderate the seminar.