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The Arctic

Questions related to the use of natural resources in the Far North, oil/gas and fish in particular, are central to NUPI’s Arctic research, as are issues of security policy.

For Norway, relations to Russia are a major factor in the Far North. Also important is the growing interest shown by other parts of the world in the Artic and its natural resources. A central thematic area for Arctic research at NUPI concerns climate change, which are already influencing and altering conditions in the region.
Publications
Publications
Report

The Arctic Barometer: Measuring Expert Predictions on the Arctic Region

Making predictions in a highly uncertain environment is always a hazardous enterprise. Confronted with global warming, the future of the Arctic region has been often debated, both in terms of the scope and the speed of expected changes, including the future of resource development, the opening of shipping routes, and the evolution of multilateral fora. These predictions have come from different sources: governments through different policy papers and statements, the media, civil society, and academics, to name but a few. It can be difficult to account for this vast and diverse array of predictions, considering that each actor has interests to promote. We decided to develop a survey asking different actors to make predictions about possible Arctic geopolitical developments. Instead of letting individuals make their own predictions on the topic of their choice, we selected plausible scenarios and prompted respondents to evaluate if these developments were likely or unlikely to happen. Scenarios were developed to be both visible and concrete: we can evaluate if the scenario unfolded or not during a certain time period. For example, we can observe if Russia violated the airspace of another Arctic state, if Greenland reached state sovereignty, or if the U.S. deployed a freedom of navigation operations in the Arctic region. In total, our scenarios covered two dimensions: governance and security. On governance, potential developments around diplomatic initiatives or multilateral cooperation were tested. On security, the possibility of military conflict in the region or of military intrusions were considered. Two main objectives justified this approach. First, we wanted to evaluate if experts were correct in their predictions. Related to this, we were curious to know which type of issues caused incorrect assessments. Second, we repeated the same scenarios in multiple waves: the objective was to analyze if specific geopolitical developments occurring between waves would change predictions, moving the needle on experts’ predictions

  • Security policy
  • The Arctic
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  • Security policy
  • The Arctic
Publications
Publications
Report

Verden vil til Arktis – hva vil vi?

Denne rapporten er et sammendrag av Utenriksdepartementets Respons-konferanse som ble avholdt i samarbeid med UiT den 13. mai 2024. Konferansen startet med åpningsinnlegg fra UiT-rektor Dag Rune Olsen og Tromsøs ordfører Gunnar Wilhelmsen, samt en tale fra Utenriksminister Espen Barth Eide. Etter dette fulgte tre bolker med talere som ga ulike analyser av og innspill til norsk utenrikspolitikk. I del 1 – Arktis møter verden – deltok Camilla Brekke, Stian Bones, Morten Høglund, Gunn-Britt Retter, Luna Drecker, Gøril Johansen og Odd Emil Ingebrigtsen. I del 2 – Russland i ny arktisk sikkerhetspolitisk kontekst – innledet statssekretær Eivind Vad Petersson fra Utenriksdepartementet. Deretter bidro Kari Aga Myklebost, Arild Moe, Julie Wilhelmsen, Hans-Jacob Bønå og Terje Aunevik med analyser. Siste bolk – Samarbeid i nord – militært og sivilt – ble åpnet med innlegg fra statssekretær i kommunal- og distriktsdepartementet Sigrun Wiggen Prestbakmo og Sjef Hæren, Generalmajor Lars S. Lervik. Deretter deltok Carina Sammeli, Dan Koivulaasko, Gunnhild Hoogensen Gjørv, Nils-Ole Foshaug, Njord Wegge og Petter Bjørkli i debatt, før Utenriksministeren avrundet seminaret med å svare på spørsmål fra publikum. Moderator for dagen var Jan-Gunnar Winther. Resten av denne rapporten er en sammenstilling av de viktigste budskapene som ble fremført i seminarets ulike bolker.

  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • Foreign policy
  • Russia and Eurasia
  • The Arctic
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  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • Foreign policy
  • Russia and Eurasia
  • The Arctic
Publications
Publications
Report

Arctic Climate Science: A Way Forward for Cooperation through the Arctic Council and Beyond

This brief is inspired and informed by a two-day workshop in Cambridge, Massachusetts entitled “The Future of Arctic Council Innovation: Charting A Course for Working-Level Cooperation” hosted by the Belfer Center’s Arctic Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School in collaboration with the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, the Center for Ocean Governance at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, and the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center. Participants included diverse representatives from civil society, academia, Indigenous Peoples’ organizations, and governments with deep knowledge of and experience with both the Arctic Council and other regional governance mechanisms.

  • The Arctic
  • Climate
  • Governance
  • International organizations
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  • The Arctic
  • Climate
  • Governance
  • International organizations
Publications
Publications
Research paper

All Quiet on the Northern Front? Russian Media Coverage of Russia-China Arctic Cooperation

This research paper explores the extent and focus of China’s engagement in the Russian Arctic from one key Russian official media outlet, Rossiiskaya gazeta, and highlights how the daily’s coverage provides further context for understanding Russia’s approach to China in the Arctic.

  • Russia and Eurasia
  • The Arctic
  • The Nordic countries
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  • Russia and Eurasia
  • The Arctic
  • The Nordic countries
Event
10:00 - 11:30
NUPI
Engelsk
Event
10:00 - 11:30
NUPI
Engelsk
15. Apr 2024
Event
10:00 - 11:30
NUPI
Engelsk

Dealing with the challenge of Russian political warfare in the High North and in the Black Sea Region

How has Russia used other instruments of power than military ones in the context of the war in Ukraine?

Gine Rønne Bolling
Researchers

Gine Rønne Bolling

Junior Research Fellow

Gine R. Bolling is a junior research fellow in the Research group on security and defence. She graduated with an MSc in Politics of Conflict, Rig...

  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • NATO
  • Foreign policy
  • Europe
  • The Arctic
  • The Nordic countries
  • The EU
  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • NATO
  • Foreign policy
  • Europe
  • The Arctic
  • The Nordic countries
  • The EU
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Research Project
2024 - 2027 (Ongoing)

Politics and Security in the Arctic (POPSARC)

At a time marked by major international turbulence – war in Europe, the breakdown of established diplomatic fora, the entry of new actors and stakeholders – there is an urgent need for also understand...

  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • NATO
  • Cyber
  • Regional integration
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • Europe
  • The Arctic
  • The Nordic countries
  • Governance
  • International organizations
  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • NATO
  • Cyber
  • Regional integration
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • Europe
  • The Arctic
  • The Nordic countries
  • Governance
  • International organizations
Security realities of freezing politics and thawing landscapes in the Arctic
Podcast

Security realities of freezing politics and thawing landscapes in the Arctic

Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has had immediate and ongoing effects for Arctic security and cooperative governance at both a regional an...

  • Security policy
  • Russia and Eurasia
  • The Arctic
  • Security policy
  • Russia and Eurasia
  • The Arctic
Articles
Analysis
Articles
Analysis

Options for Arctic governance in difficult weather

PODCAST: What options are there for moving Arctic governance forward, and what needs to be done first?
  • The Arctic
  • Governance
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Options for Arctic governance in difficult weather
Podcast

Options for Arctic governance in difficult weather

The Arctic continues to be transformed and impacted by global forces, from declining sea ice on the Arctic Ocean, through new summers of devastati...

  • The Arctic
  • The Arctic
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