Research project
Roads to Power? The political effects of infrastructure projects in Asia (ROADS)
Events
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is said to be aimed at generating both economic gains, but also political ones – tying recipients of Chinese investments closer to Beijing. But does investing in infrastructure projects generate increased political influence?
ROADS seeks to answer this question by combining systematic analyses of China's investments in infrastructure projects in different regions with in-depth analyses of the political dynamics of infrastructure investments in specific countries.
We assess the political effects of infrastructure investments (roads, trains, digital) by analysing the pre-existing relationship between China and the countries where they invest, as well as attributes of the infrastructure investments themselves.
Ongoing research considers China's role in infrastructure development in Southeast Asia (i.e. Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia and Indonesia) and other regions (i.e. MENA region, Europe), as well as responses and parallel initiatives of other major powers (i.e. US, Japan, G7, EU) to the BRI.
The ambition is to arrive at a more nuanced understanding of the BRI and China's efforts to wield power globally, and to identify the factors that strengthen or undermine BRI and China.
Project Manager
Participants
External
Tan-Mullins, May
Larson, Deborah
Nymalm, Nicola
Sakai, Hidekazu
Freeman, Carla
Articles
title.podkast
Psychology, Status, and Recognition in International Politics
In this episode, Professor Deborah Welch Larson joins host Morten Skumsrud Andersen to discuss how the need for recognition and the fear of status...
Psychology, Status, and Recognition in International Politics
In this episode, Professor Deborah Welch Larson joins host Morten Skumsrud Andersen to discuss how the need for recognition and the fear of status...
Building influence: China's Belt and Road Initiative and the geopolitics of infrastructure
Over the past decade, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has redrawn physical, economic, and political maps. From ports in the Indian Ocean to...
New publications
Central Asia between China and Russia: Exercising Agency in a Changing Regional Order
This report addresses a central question: why has China’s expanding engagement in Central Asia not led to direct rivalry with Russia? Organised around thematic expert contributions, the report examines Sino-Russian relations, China’s role in shaping regional order, and the economic and social dimensions of its engagement. It concludes with policy recommendations for the United Kingdom on how to apply existing priorities more effectively in Central Asia.
Japan and Strategic Connectivity: Policies, Partners, and Possibilities
This report analyses the increasingly important role of infrastructure development and connectivity as a central arena of global geopolitical competition, particularly focusing on Japan’s connectivity policy under the banner of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific. The core aim of this report is to explore how Japan seeks to utilise strategic connectivity, specifically through its multi-layered approach, as a pivotal geopolitical instrument to project influence and promote a rules-based order, amidst rising competition with China. The report offers ten actionable policy recommendations, in particular, for the European Union.
“BRIexit”: Unravelling Withdrawals from the Belt and Road Initiative
Twelve years into the launch of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), over 140 countries have joined, but a few have left. These withdrawals, or BRIexit, though limited in number, raise crucial questions about the prospect of Beijing’s flagship initiative and the shifting geopolitical landscape in which it operates. What explains the withdrawals? More importantly, has there been any impact on the legitimacy of the BRI? Whilst some BRIexits stem from economic calculations, others reflect changing state preferences or mounting external pressures—trends that could reshape the BRI’s future, especially under a more aggressive second Trump administration.
Assessing Alternative Alignments: China’s Reception of the Quad, Aukus and IPEF
Under President Xi Jinping, China has developed its own vision of political and strategic order on a global scale, with the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) being a major part of it. Anchoring itself in over 150 countries and organizations, the colossal undertaking instigated a new literature on how it should be understood in the context of inter-state dynamics, world order and power distribution. The BRI also precipitated a number of alternative alignments from major Western economies such as the US, Japan and the EU that involve both infrastructure-specific initiatives and broader foreign and security policy objectives in the Indo-Pacific region. Over a decade since the BRI’s inception, the menu of these alternatives has become significantly longer, yet we still know little about how their standalone policies compare and how they are perceived and received by Beijing. This chapter considers three of the major alternative alignments to counter Chinese influence, namely: (1) the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), (2) AUKUS, and (3) Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). It directs analysis to the alternatives’ major attributes and evolutions before comparing and contrasting China’s reception of them. Analysis is based on a review of government statements, academic literature, policy documents and media articles.
Reinforcing Trust, Evoking Nostalgia and Contrasting China: Japan's Foreign Policy Repertoire and Identity Construction in Myanmar
In the immediate aftermath of the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021, Western countries and the EU condemned the coup, imposed targeted sanctions against military leaders and military-owned companies, and redirected essential humanitarian aid to NGOs. Japan, however, chose to neither align with its democratic allies nor completely suspend its aid. Despite a long and complicated pre-war history and limited engagement after 1988, Japan-Myanmar relations experienced a resurgence between 2012 and 2021. This article contends that one key driving force in contemporary relations is identity construction. Drawing on the literature on relational identity and foreign policy repertoires, the article demonstrates how the discursive statements and embodied practices of a network of Japanese identity entrepreneurs activate, negotiate, and renegotiate the identities of the Japanese Self and its Others. Through an analysis of interviews conducted with elite stakeholders in Myanmar and Japan, the article studies Japan’s constructed identity as an economic great power and post-war development pioneer, peace promoter, and diplomatic mediator. It finds that Japan constructs its identity temporally in terms of nostalgia (natsukashisa) and a longing for a time when Japan was a post-war industrial powerhouse, but also spatially in terms of Japan’s legal, moral, and industrial superiority over other countries involved in Myanmar’s development, in particular vis-à-vis China.
Navigating ASEAN-Myanmar Relations: The Phnom Penh Summit as a Critical Juncture for (Dis)Engagement
This article considers recent internal developments in Myanmar and how they strain external relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It identifies ASEAN’s Phnom Penh Summit as a critical juncture for disengaging the military government, engaging non-political entities and upgrading the 2021 Five-Point Consensus.
Project Manager
Events
Participants
External
Tan-Mullins, May
Larson, Deborah
Nymalm, Nicola
Sakai, Hidekazu
Freeman, Carla