Publications
European Actorness in a Shifting Geopolitical Order. European Strategic Autonomy Through Differentiated Integration
This is an open access book. Over the past decade, the global geopolitical context has changed significantly, with a geopolitical power shift and a more assertive Russia and China. With the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine, European security has been put on high alert. The implications of the Russian military invasion are many and difficult to grasp in full. But the need for greater European strategic autonomy appears increasingly evident. But how can this be achieved in the short run? The answer to this question is often that it is impossible and that this can only be achieved in the long run. The aim of this book is to present a different perspective. It aims at showing that it should be possible to make the most out of the current European system if we adjust our understanding of how it works. The book argues that strategic autonomy may be reached—also in the short run—if differentiated integration is seen as an asset rather than a challenge. While the EU remains the core in such a system (together with NATO in the military domain), there is a multitude of other (bilateral and minilateral) regional and sub-regional integration processes that need to be taken into account to get the full idea of how European strategic autonomy can be achieved. This book starts by presenting a theoretical framework for how to study European actorness beyond the EU, then this framework will be applied both to the development towards the EU as a foreign policy actor through the mechanisms of enlargement.
European Actorness in a Shifting Geopolitical Order. European Strategic Autonomy Through Differentiated Integration
This is an open access book. Over the past decade, the global geopolitical context has changed significantly, with a geopolitical power shift and a more assertive Russia and China. With the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine, European security has been put on high alert. The implications of the Russian military invasion are many and difficult to grasp in full. But the need for greater European strategic autonomy appears increasingly evident. But how can this be achieved in the short run? The answer to this question is often that it is impossible and that this can only be achieved in the long run. The aim of this book is to present a different perspective. It aims at showing that it should be possible to make the most out of the current European system if we adjust our understanding of how it works. The book argues that strategic autonomy may be reached—also in the short run—if differentiated integration is seen as an asset rather than a challenge. While the EU remains the core in such a system (together with NATO in the military domain), there is a multitude of other (bilateral and minilateral) regional and sub-regional integration processes that need to be taken into account to get the full idea of how European strategic autonomy can be achieved. This book starts by presenting a theoretical framework for how to study European actorness beyond the EU, then this framework will be applied both to the development towards the EU as a foreign policy actor through the mechanisms of enlargement.
Knowledge Gaps in the Nexus of Climate, Peace and Security
There is a growing body of research on the relationship between climate change and peace and security. Research shows that the effects of climate change can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, such as food and water security, and in combination with other factors can also increase the risk of violent conflict. It is increasingly recognized that actions taken to prevent and manage conflict can be coordinated and integrated with actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Such cross-disciplinary cooperation can generate outcomes that are beneficial for both a sustainable peace and environment. The COP27 Presidency initiative titled “Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace” (CRSP), has taken a leading role in this movement by spearheading a discursive pivot from a climate security nexus towards a climate and peacebuilding nexus, with multifaceted and holistic approaches. The literature on how to integrate climate adaption and mitigation actions in efforts to build sustainable peace is still underdeveloped. However, there are related fields, such as the relationship between peace, conflict and natural resource management that may offer comparable lessons. This policy paper takes stock of the existing knowledge and identifies knowledge gaps for policy practice in the crucial, complex and emergent field of climate, peace and security. It classifies significant gaps in our actionable knowledge by sorting them into operational knowledge gaps, climate finance knowledge gaps, and gaps in the knowledge infrastructure.
Staying Outside the EU Does not Make Norway’s Climate Policy More Ambitious
This article is in Norwegian only. The article discusses Norway’s climate policy in light of the country’s non-membership status in the European Union (EU). Despite claims that Norway, staying outside the EU, may have greater autonomy in shaping climate policy, the study shows that this does not necessarily lead to more ambitious climate targets. Since 2009, Norway has chosen to align itself with the EU, cooperate on climate issues and update its targets in line with European ones. Through a comparison with Sweden, an EU member, the article examines how EU membership has not limited Sweden’s ability to pursue an ambitious climate policy nationally and internationally. The article also reveals the challenges Norway faces as a result of its outsider status, particularly in the energy sector, where dependence on hydropower and the oil and gas industry causes problems for climate policy. Despite Norway’s international initiatives in climate finance and forest conservation, the article argues that EU membership would not necessarily limit Norway’s role as a global climate leader. Finally, the study points to the challenges of remaining outside the EU and emphasizes the need for a thorough assessment of the potential benefits and limitations of such a position.
External Voting: The Patterns and Drivers of Central European Migrants' Homeland Electoral Participation
This open access book is the first monograph that brings together insights from comparative politics, political sociology, and migration studies to introduce the current state of knowledge on external voting and transnational politics. Drawing on new data gathered within the DIASPOlitic project, which created a comparative dataset of external voting results for 6 countries of origin and 17 countries of residence as well as an extensive qualitative dataset of 80 in-depth interviews with four groups of migrants, this book not only illustrates theoretical problems with empirical material, but also provides answers to previously unaddressed questions. The empirical material focuses on the European context. The Eastern Enlargement of the European Union (2004-2007) triggered a westward wave of migration from Central and Eastern European countries which faced the expansion of existing émigré communities and the emergence of new ones. As this process coincided with the expansion of migrant voting rights, the result is a large set of populous diaspora communities which can potentially have a significant impact on country electoral politics, making the study of external voting highly relevant. This book’s introduction takes stock of current research on transnational politics and external voting, presenting core puzzles. The following chapter introduces the context of intra-European migration and the political situation in Central-Eastern European sending countries. The next two sections address the empirical puzzles, drawing on new quantitative and qualitative. The conclusion takes stock of the evidence gathered, discusses the normative problem of non-resident voters enfranchisement, connects external voting to the broader debate on political remittances and finally, maps the terrain ahead for future research.
Changing or frozen narratives? The Arctic in Russian media and expert commentary, 2021–2022
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has brought Russia–West relations to its lowest point since the Cold War. Relations in the Arctic region are not excepted, evidenced not least by the other seven member states’ pausing their participation in Russia’s Arctic Council chairmanship (which concluded in May 2023). To the extent that “Arctic exceptionalism” – the notion that the Arctic has been characterised by a cooperative mode between Russia and the West which has remained relatively untouched by increasing tensions elsewhere – was ever an appropriate description, Western analysts have now declared it firmly dead. How does this situation look from within Russia? This research paper investigates how the Russian state media and the foreign policy expert community have portrayed the Arctic in 2021 and 2022. How much change has been seen since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine? By surveying “the story about the Arctic” as presented by mainstream narrators and experts, we gain insights into, among other things, how changes in Arctic cooperation, sanctions, the role of China in the Arctic, and the question of climate change are conveyed to Russian audiences. The paper proceeds as follows. We start by briefly explaining the methods and data used. We then present a portrayal of the Arctic in Russia’s government’s newspaper Rossiiskaya gazeta, followed by the role of the Arctic in analyses published by the Russian International Affairs Council and the journal Russia in Global Affairs. Lastly, we conclude by discussing a general continuity in the way the Arctic is framed in the material, and foreground three core themes: climate change, security, and cooperation.
Stormaktenes militærmakt: Militær kapasitet og muligheter for å bidra med forsterkninger til Norge
This report is in Norwegian only. Norsk forsvarspolitikk bygger på en tro på at medlemskapet i NATO og partnerskap med viktige allierte vil sikre at Norge får militære forsterkninger dersom en krig bryter ut. Kollektivt forsvar og bilateralt samarbeid er to av tre grunnpilarer i det norske forsvarskonseptet (Figur 1). USA, Storbritannia, Tyskland og Frankrike er regnet som de viktigste stormaktene i NATO. Denne rapporten gir et bilde av hvordan disse stormaktenes væpnede styrker er utformet, hvordan de utvikler seg, hva de er i stand til å gjøre, og hvor mye de kan gjøre på en gang. Hensikten er å forbedre forståelsen av hva Norge kan forvente å få av militær støtte i krig.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Democratic Republic of the Congo
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is faced with a confluence of climate change, environmental degradation, resource exploitation and conflict dynamics that is exacerbating insecurity in the country. The dual impact of climate change and the global green energy transition risks deepening divisions over resource management and fostering intercommunal conflict over resources such as land and water. Climate related security risks threaten to undermine human security through increased livelihood and food insecurity and changing patterns of transhumance.
A more strategic European Union in a more contested space
Space is becoming an increasingly important domain for societies and politics alike, also from a geopolitical and hence security and defence perspective. The EU is a key actor in space, but its approach to space is changing in a more uncertain and contested geopolitical environment. While still focused largely on the civilian aspects of space, the EU has developed a more strategic approach towards space, increasingly using the domain also for security and defence, including military, purposes. As the EU develops quickly in a more challenging and uncertain environment, Norway needs to understand EU developments and their implications at an early stage, and work to secure participation where interests align.