Publications
Do regime differences shape developmental engagement? How China and Japan compete in post-coup Myanmar
The 2021 military coup in Myanmar has left the country significantly isolated on the world stage. Politically, foreign governments have avoided recognizing the junta rulers, although quasi-official engagement is still underway. Economically, foreign investments into Myanmar have dropped by 42% from 2021 to 2022, off levels that had already massively decreased since the 2017 Rohingya expulsion. However, despite the international outcry over the new regime’s open warfare against civilians and the escalating violence in Myanmar’s multi-front civil war, both China and Japan have remained engaged in development cooperation, pursuing ambitious projects for economic corridors and special economic zones (SEZs) that were contracted under the deposed civilian government; in the case of China, even some new projects have been launched.
From partners to allies: Finland and Norway in a new era
Finland’s decision to apply for NATO membership in 2022 altered Nordic security and defence dynamics. It also reset Finland’s relations with its neighbouring states – including longstanding NATO member Norway. In this policy brief, we discuss the evolving relationship between Finland and Norway. Despite their history as peaceful neighbours, divergent security arrangements generated political distance between Finland and Norway during the Cold War. After the end of the Cold War, their security policies gradually became more aligned, as evident also in heightened Nordic security cooperation, Finnish and Swedish participation in NATO exercises, and, more recently, the signing of a series of defence agreements with each other as well as with Sweden and the United States. Following Finland’s NATO accession, both states have anticipated a deepening of the Finnish-Norwegian alliance. We identify some areas where Finland and Norway may benefit from collaborating and exchanging perspectives in the coming years. This includes in the management of shared institutional frameworks, security concerns in the Arctic and Baltic Sea regions, the future relationship with the United States, and a more antagonistic Russia.
The Ukraine War, the New Geopolitics of Energy, and Norway
This study aims to address the question of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has changed patterns of regional and global energy interactions and how this influences perceptions of Norway as a major regional energy actor. To examine these important questions, we will proceed in the following manner. In the first part of this study, we will present our operational understanding of the key concepts shaping our thinking about the relationship between the geopolitical and geoeconomic aspects of international cooperation and rivalry. Here we also will discuss the role of various national instruments of power in the pursuit of geopolitical and geoeconomic objectives. In the second part we narrow the scope of this examination to shed light on the relationship between geopolitics and energy in global and regional contexts, paying special attention to trends shaping the international energy game. This includes the changing role of Russia; how green energy transition reshapes international energy cooperation and how old and new energy-related policy instruments are evolving in this rapidly changing energy landscape. In addition, we also examine the nature of the old and new threats to energy flows, particularly those related to critical energy infrastructure. In the third part of this study, we examine the direct and indirect impacts the Russian war against Ukraine has had on energy markets and what implications these recent developments have for the position of Norway as a major energy actor. Norway’s importance for energy consumers, especially in Europe, has increased because of the war. Although the global energy trends discussed in the previous section also influence Norway and Europe, the focus in the latter section is on the regional dimension as Norway’s energy supplies reach first and foremost Europe. Finally, we examine possible scenarios that may influence energy markets and geopolitical conditions, with special attention paid to global factors with the potential to cause serious shifts. Part of the focus is on possible technological breakthroughs that may change the parameters of the international energy interactions and undermine the position of traditional energy producers and exporters.
Climate, Peace and Security Research Paper: Insights on Climate, Peace and Security
Climate change is transforming and redefining the global security and development landscape. United Nations member states are increasingly acknowledging that the impacts of climate change have implications for international peace and security. The growing recognition of this link has been reflected by the UN Security Council adopting over 70 related resolutions and presidential statements since 2017. Since 2021 the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) have analysed the links between climate, peace and security in countries and regions on the agenda of the UN Security Council. With support from Norway during its elected membership of the UN Security Council in 2021–22, NUPI and SIPRI jointly published 11 Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheets covering Afghanistan, the Central African Republic (CAR), Colombia, Ethiopia, Iraq, Mali, the Sahel region, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan. These fact sheets build on an analysis of four pathways from climate change to conflict that were identified in the context of East Africa; and supplement research on South and South East Asia, West Africa, and the Middle East and North Africa. The relationships between climate change and conflict have been studied in numerous other empirical studies and literature reviews with complementary findings. This paper outlines how climate change can affect peace and security (section I) and how climate change interacts with social, economic and political vulnerabilities in the countries covered by the Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheets (section II). The paper then synthesizes (section III) four key findings from the fact sheet series: (a) livelihood security is important, if not crucial, to the ways in which climate change influences conflict risk; (b) the impacts of climate change in one location can increase security risks in other locations; (c) the impacts of climate change interact with local vulnerabilities in ways that can create new security risks and exacerbate existing risks, such as conflict; and (d) conflict is not an inevitable consequence of climate change, but can be a response to its effects. This paper concludes with recommendations for how the UN Security Council shapes policies to address the complex challenges arising from climate change (section IV).
How effective is policing in protecting civilians in peace operations? Lessons from the UN Mission in South Sudan
Policing, as a governance service, is part of a multidimensional peace operation deployed to respond to conflict and other crises. It helps prevent conflict relapses, build sustainable peace, ensure the rule of law and justice, protect and promote human rights, and protect civilians. In various reports and resolutions, the United Nations (UN) recognises the invaluable role of the police in international peace interventions. This monograph analyses the effectiveness of policing in protecting civilians in the case of the UN Mission in South Sudan. It sets out lessons and prospects for enhancing the effectiveness of policing in peace operations in protecting civilians.
European Actorness in a Shifting Geopolitical Order. European Strategic Autonomy Through Differentiated Integration
This is an open access book. Over the past decade, the global geopolitical context has changed significantly, with a geopolitical power shift and a more assertive Russia and China. With the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine, European security has been put on high alert. The implications of the Russian military invasion are many and difficult to grasp in full. But the need for greater European strategic autonomy appears increasingly evident. But how can this be achieved in the short run? The answer to this question is often that it is impossible and that this can only be achieved in the long run. The aim of this book is to present a different perspective. It aims at showing that it should be possible to make the most out of the current European system if we adjust our understanding of how it works. The book argues that strategic autonomy may be reached—also in the short run—if differentiated integration is seen as an asset rather than a challenge. While the EU remains the core in such a system (together with NATO in the military domain), there is a multitude of other (bilateral and minilateral) regional and sub-regional integration processes that need to be taken into account to get the full idea of how European strategic autonomy can be achieved. This book starts by presenting a theoretical framework for how to study European actorness beyond the EU, then this framework will be applied both to the development towards the EU as a foreign policy actor through the mechanisms of enlargement.
European Actorness in a Shifting Geopolitical Order. European Strategic Autonomy Through Differentiated Integration
This is an open access book. Over the past decade, the global geopolitical context has changed significantly, with a geopolitical power shift and a more assertive Russia and China. With the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine, European security has been put on high alert. The implications of the Russian military invasion are many and difficult to grasp in full. But the need for greater European strategic autonomy appears increasingly evident. But how can this be achieved in the short run? The answer to this question is often that it is impossible and that this can only be achieved in the long run. The aim of this book is to present a different perspective. It aims at showing that it should be possible to make the most out of the current European system if we adjust our understanding of how it works. The book argues that strategic autonomy may be reached—also in the short run—if differentiated integration is seen as an asset rather than a challenge. While the EU remains the core in such a system (together with NATO in the military domain), there is a multitude of other (bilateral and minilateral) regional and sub-regional integration processes that need to be taken into account to get the full idea of how European strategic autonomy can be achieved. This book starts by presenting a theoretical framework for how to study European actorness beyond the EU, then this framework will be applied both to the development towards the EU as a foreign policy actor through the mechanisms of enlargement.
Knowledge Gaps in the Nexus of Climate, Peace and Security
There is a growing body of research on the relationship between climate change and peace and security. Research shows that the effects of climate change can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities, such as food and water security, and in combination with other factors can also increase the risk of violent conflict. It is increasingly recognized that actions taken to prevent and manage conflict can be coordinated and integrated with actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Such cross-disciplinary cooperation can generate outcomes that are beneficial for both a sustainable peace and environment. The COP27 Presidency initiative titled “Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace” (CRSP), has taken a leading role in this movement by spearheading a discursive pivot from a climate security nexus towards a climate and peacebuilding nexus, with multifaceted and holistic approaches. The literature on how to integrate climate adaption and mitigation actions in efforts to build sustainable peace is still underdeveloped. However, there are related fields, such as the relationship between peace, conflict and natural resource management that may offer comparable lessons. This policy paper takes stock of the existing knowledge and identifies knowledge gaps for policy practice in the crucial, complex and emergent field of climate, peace and security. It classifies significant gaps in our actionable knowledge by sorting them into operational knowledge gaps, climate finance knowledge gaps, and gaps in the knowledge infrastructure.
Staying Outside the EU Does not Make Norway’s Climate Policy More Ambitious
This article is in Norwegian only. The article discusses Norway’s climate policy in light of the country’s non-membership status in the European Union (EU). Despite claims that Norway, staying outside the EU, may have greater autonomy in shaping climate policy, the study shows that this does not necessarily lead to more ambitious climate targets. Since 2009, Norway has chosen to align itself with the EU, cooperate on climate issues and update its targets in line with European ones. Through a comparison with Sweden, an EU member, the article examines how EU membership has not limited Sweden’s ability to pursue an ambitious climate policy nationally and internationally. The article also reveals the challenges Norway faces as a result of its outsider status, particularly in the energy sector, where dependence on hydropower and the oil and gas industry causes problems for climate policy. Despite Norway’s international initiatives in climate finance and forest conservation, the article argues that EU membership would not necessarily limit Norway’s role as a global climate leader. Finally, the study points to the challenges of remaining outside the EU and emphasizes the need for a thorough assessment of the potential benefits and limitations of such a position.
External Voting: The Patterns and Drivers of Central European Migrants' Homeland Electoral Participation
This open access book is the first monograph that brings together insights from comparative politics, political sociology, and migration studies to introduce the current state of knowledge on external voting and transnational politics. Drawing on new data gathered within the DIASPOlitic project, which created a comparative dataset of external voting results for 6 countries of origin and 17 countries of residence as well as an extensive qualitative dataset of 80 in-depth interviews with four groups of migrants, this book not only illustrates theoretical problems with empirical material, but also provides answers to previously unaddressed questions. The empirical material focuses on the European context. The Eastern Enlargement of the European Union (2004-2007) triggered a westward wave of migration from Central and Eastern European countries which faced the expansion of existing émigré communities and the emergence of new ones. As this process coincided with the expansion of migrant voting rights, the result is a large set of populous diaspora communities which can potentially have a significant impact on country electoral politics, making the study of external voting highly relevant. This book’s introduction takes stock of current research on transnational politics and external voting, presenting core puzzles. The following chapter introduces the context of intra-European migration and the political situation in Central-Eastern European sending countries. The next two sections address the empirical puzzles, drawing on new quantitative and qualitative. The conclusion takes stock of the evidence gathered, discusses the normative problem of non-resident voters enfranchisement, connects external voting to the broader debate on political remittances and finally, maps the terrain ahead for future research.