Publications
Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks
Economic interdependence and global supply chains are being investigated anew. For a long time, a belief in the ability of growing economic ties to foster cooperation, dampen conflict, and enhance prosperity was predominant in academic and political thinking alike. However, these assumptions have recently proven to be half-truths at best. Rather than dampen conflict, the asymmetries of global supply chains have turned them into coercive tools for the powerful to wield against the powerless. Through sanctions and export controls, states controlling vital chokepoints in global economic networks can cause harm in targeted states, and through controlling the nodes of information highways, intelligence agencies can gain access to sensitive information by leveraging the key position of their domestic companies. For states with small, open economies, this development poses a thorny problem: the toolbox for realigning global supply chains is limited, but reliance on supply chains beyond national control is extensive. The problem is not limited to being in a position of dependence, however. For smaller states, being in control over global assets, or being a key provider of a product or resource others depend on can be a double-edged sword. As economic coercion becomes more widely deployed, the impetus for protecting and securing assets increases, and the risk that they might drag smaller states into geopolitical contests grows. Addressing these concerns, it is vital to develop tools, frameworks, and methodologies for assessing supply chains from a national perspective, with a focus on how economic interdependence might introduce geopolitical risks. Against this background, this report builds on recent theoretical and methodological developments for analyzing global supply chains in light of their potential for geopolitical weaponization. More precisely, it will study Norway’s position in global value chains by combining recent methodological developments on the network analysis of supply chains and recent analysis of country-level aggregated analysis of supply dependencies. This allows for a study of supply chains as networks of economic relations, in which the position of different national economies contains both strategic capacities, or assets, by being central suppliers on which other countries depend, and vulnerabilities, by depending heavily on other countries. The report thus uses network analysis to identify Norway’s positions and their related strategic vulnerabilities and assets. Link to the Annex for this report: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/annex-to-the-report-norway-s-strategic-dependencies-in-global-supply-chain-networks
How does climate change affect peace and security?
This comic is based on findings from our series of Climate, Peace, and Security Fact Sheets, which aim to present reliable, relevant, timely and actionable information and analysis on climate-related peace and security risks in selected countries and regions on the United Nations Security Council Agenda. The Climate, Peace, and Security Fact Sheets are a joint product by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), with funding from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The information in this comic does not necessarily reflect the views of the donor.
A role for state governments in social licensing for renewable energy projects in Mexico
In Mexico, energy governance has mainly been a federal matter. However, the state (regional) governments, motivated by environmental and climate concerns, economic development opportunities, and social community needs, have recently started to explore ways to facilitate renewable energy development. But although state governments claim renewable energy reduces energy poverty and express support for a just transition, these projects do not seem to have social licenses—explicit support for them to proceed—at the local community level. The discrepancy between rhetoric and reality is related to the way these projects are negotiated and implemented. In this policy brief we examine two paths that the Mexican states can take to improve the social licensing of renewable energy projects. First, they can establish a framework for ethical conduct and evaluation of the potential impacts of renewable energy projects, including elements such as adherence to international standards, inclusive planning processes, and environmental and social impact assessments. Second, they can implement proactive, engagement-focused measures that empower state and local governments to facilitate renewable energy projects and reduce transaction costs.
Mapping renewable energy policy development at the state level in Mexico
This report maps renewable energy policy development at the state (provincial) level in Mexico and tracks early experiences with renewable energy deployment in four selected Mexican states. “Renewable energy policy” refers to the policy instruments that state governments have adopted to facilitate renewable energy deployment (e.g., long-term climate and energy strategies and subsidies), and the institutionalization of these instruments through the establishment of state entities responsible for their implementation (e.g., state energy agencies).
EEA at 30
This report is in Norwegian only. During 30 years, Norway has participated in the EU internal market via the EEA (European Economic Area) agreement. According to available research, this has led to a strong increase in trade and a real income gain of about 2-6%. On top of this, there are other gains, for example administrative cost savings due to common rules in the EEA, and welfare gains due to common environmental standards in Europa. The EEA agreement is unique by having an extensive set of common rules that are continuously updated. Thousands of EEA rules are part of national laws and practice that people and firms meet every day without necessarily knowing that they are due to the EEA. The eastern enlargement from 2004 extended the EEA into an integrated and growing market with more than 500 million inhabitants and has led to economic and social convergence in Europe since the new members have trebled their incomes. Migrants from the new member Norway have high work participation rates and currently represent about ¼ of immigrants in Norway. The EU is still clearly Norway’s largest partner with about 60% for trade as well as investment. Within the EEA, trade with and between the new member states has grown fastest. For trade in goods, the EEA has led to a seamless common market for the sectors that are included. Also for services, the EEA has led to stronger integration but differences between national regulations still impede trade. Completion of the internal market for services is important for small and medium-sized enterprises, and important to create efficient value chains in Norway and Europe. During the EEA period, Norway had a sizeable terms-of-trade gain due to stronger price growth for exports than for imports. Trade within as well as beyond the EEA contributed to this. During recent years, the EU has modified the rulebook on state aid, partly motivated by the green transition and subsidies in China and the USA. This leads to a new industrial policy, with new forms of cooperation where EFTA may participate, however with some challenges. Digitalisation has created new global challenges where the EU plays a leading role as regulator, with impact also for the EEA. In particular, common regulations in telecommunication have led to considerable gains and contributed to competitive digital services. In the new trade policy climate, the borderline between what is inside and outside the EEA becomes more blurred. An example is climate policy, where Norway through the EEA participates in the EU emission quota trading system but it is not yet clear whether Norway should introduce EUs carbon tax on imports from third countries (CBAM). Cooperation with the EU increasingly affects trade policy viz. third countries, where EFTA traditionally had autonomy. The new geopolitics also create trade policy challenges not covered by the EEA, where the EU introduces new measures while EFTA does not have a clear response. In some areas, for example export restrictions and sanctions, Norway has an ever-closer cooperation with the EU.
Revisiting the Case of Ethnography and International Relations
This article revisits the debate on the role of ethnography in International Relations. It primarily does this by elucidating three points of tension in the literature on ethnography in International Relations. Firstly, it tackles the challenges related to ‘getting on’ with ethnography after the reflexive methodological developments that have taken place within anthropology since the 1980s. Secondly, it investigates how to overcome certain matters of scale and how to conceptualise the ‘international’ methodologically, or more specifically, ethnographically. When looking at issues that somehow exist and operate on the international scale, the ethnographic task of immersion in local scenes does sometimes seem like an ill-suited approach. However, I argue, this problematisation is dependent on a certain methodological understanding of what the international is. I attempt to formulate an alternative methodological approach that takes seriously the idea that international relations always can be accessed locally. This paper suggests that one of the main solutions to the obstacle of scale is methodologically abandon the imaginary of totalities as a higher level. In this way, ethnography can enable important understandings of social relations that exist across scales of local and global.
Constraints, Dilemmas and Challenges for EU Foreign Policy in Venezuela
Years of increasingly authoritarian rule and economic mismanagement by President Nicolás Maduro have turned Venezuela into a source of regional instability. The European Union’s (EU) main foreign policy objective towards the country has been a peaceful transition to free and transparent elections and its re-introduction into regional and global trade and political frameworks. The strategies pursued by the EU to mitigate the constraints on its foreign policy towards Venezuela have helped to bring about more EU unity, but have failed to have a significant impact in the country itself. Multipolar competition between the EU and the United States (US) on the one hand and between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia on the other, have undermined the EU’s attempts to contribute a peaceful solution to the process. Most recently, the war on Ukraine has created a new dilemma for the EU in its dealings with Venezuela, that is, having to navigate between maintaining pressure on the Maduro regime, keeping up momentum for negotiations and deciding whether to follow the US in resuming oil trade with Caracas to mitigate the energy crisis in Europe.
Technology and maritime security in Africa: Opportunities and challenges in Gulf of Guinea
Maritime security threats undermine safety and security at sea and, in turn, coastal states’ efforts to harness the resources in their maritime domain. This assertion is true for coastal states and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) on the African continent, where limited maritime enforcement capabilities have increased security threats at sea, such as illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, piracy and armed robbery at sea, toxic waste dumping and other illicit activities. African navies and their foreign partners are taking advantage of the opportunities that technology provides to improve safety and security. Technology has led to the identification of criminals at sea, their capture and prosecution, making it crucial in enhancing maritime security. As such, the merits of its use for maritime security are undeniable. However, using technology comes with challenges that need to be considered. With this in mind, our research makes an original contribution by exploring the opportunities for using technology to advance maritime safety and security in Africa, successes and challenges with an emphasis on the Gulf of Guinea region. Drawing from questionnaire data from maritime law enforcement personnel, agencies supporting the implementation of the Yaoundé Code of Conduct (2013), and a review of relevant literature and policy documents, we contend that technology has significantly improved maritime domain awareness and the effective implementation of maritime safety and security in the Gulf of Guinea. However, addressing existing limitations and enhancing human capacity is imperative to sustain this progress.
Public Policy Europeanisation in Response to the Covid‐19 Crisis: The Case of Job Retention Schemes
To what extent and how did the Covid-19-pandemic trigger the Europeanisation of public policy in the EU member states? This article addresses this question by exploring member states’ responses to the labour market implications of the pandemic. Although the EU due to its free movement principles in effect has a common labour market, labour market policies have remained in the hands of the member states. Nonetheless, we find that they responded in a surprisingly similar manner to rising unemployment caused by lockdowns. Was this policy change linked to Europeanisation processes, and if so, in what way? We find that member states’ responses were related both to economic incentives and to contingent learning playing out in largely informal settings at the EU level. Our findings shed light on how crises may function as a critical juncture that triggers policy change, and how the EU may play a key role in such change. Our study thus also adds insights to our understanding of the mechanisms that underpin Europeanisation, in particular by shedding light on the importance of informal learning processes and the influence of the European Commission also in formally less integrated policy areas.
EUs utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk og implikasjoner for Norge
EUs samlede respons på krigen i Ukraina illustrerer bredden i EUs utenriks-politiske virkemidler og medlemslandenes økte vilje til å løse felles utfordrin-ger innenfor EU systemet. Det har også blitt tydeligere hvordan EU og Nato i økende grad komplementerer hverandre. Krigen og en endret geopolitisk situasjon illustrerer også hvordan sikkerhet i økende grad spiller over i andre politikkområder i EU som handel, energi, teknologi, kommunikasjon og kri-tiske råvarer. Vi befinner oss dermed i en europeisk sikkerhetspolitisk kontekst som er radikalt endret siden 1994. En hovedutfordring for Norge er at avta-lene med EU ikke reflekterer denne utviklingen. For å kompensere for dette må man dermed stadig søke å inngå nye avtaler for å sikre norske sikkerhets-politiske interesser, noe som er krevende og uforutsigbart. Så langt har det for eksempel skapt utfordringer knyttet til en eventuell norsk tilknytning til EUs nye satellittkommunikasjonssamarbeid (IRIS²) og helseunion. Denne artikke-len diskuterer EUs utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk og implikasjoner for Norge. Vi redegjør for viktige utviklingstrekk og drivere av EUs utenrikspolitikk, før vi går litt mer i dybden på hva slags utenrikspolitisk aktør EU er i dag. Til slutt diskuterer vi betydningen av denne utviklingen for Norge