Publications
The defence of northern Europe: new opportunities, significant challenges
With Finland and Sweden joining NATO, the Nordics will be united for the first time in a military alliance encompassing not only northern Europe but also the broader transatlantic region. It will eventually fortify northern European security, but several obstacles must be overcome first. NATO has done a formidable job since 2014 in updating its defence plans, cumulating in the Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area (DDA) family of plans approved in Vilnius 2023. Now Finland and Sweden need to be incorporated into these plans. A more challenging task is to implement NATO's New Force Model which is tremendously ambitious. Finland and Sweden's contributions will be important, but new investments must be made. NATO's Command Structure is yet to be fully reformed and fitted to the DDA. Joint Force Command Norfolk must urgently be staffed, without undue politicization in NATO. Nordic defence buildup can draw on regional cooperation in particular in five areas: in strengthening the area's command design through functional double-hatted headquarters; developing close air power cooperation through e.g. a Combined Joint Air Operations Centre; strengthening total defence cooperation across borders and expanding logistical infrastructure; establishing joint intelligence task forces; and joint training and exercises. The contributions of the United States and United Kingdom are indispensable when it comes to upholding the alliance's guarantee in northern Europe. The recent signing of Defense Cooperation Agreements between the US and the Nordics reinforces this—together with an increased presence of air and naval assets in the region. The same applies to the UK and the Joint Expeditionary Force which now has shifted its focus towards northern Europe. This engagement is a crucial addition to Nordic and NATO plans and activities in a period when growth in Nordic defence structures is occurring at a relatively slow pace. Only after the weaknesses and hurdles are addressed will the deterrence and defence of the region attain a fully credible level.
Is liberal internationalism worth saving? Ad hoc coalitions and their consequences for international security
Slow responses and blocked decision-making of international organizations provide opportunities for ad hoc coalitions to fill functional and political gaps. Compared to UN peace operations, ad hoc coalitions avoid gridlock and high transaction costs, they are fast to set up, can be task and time specific, flexible and easily dissolved. However, they also have much lighter human rights and financial accountability frameworks, a patchy record of longer-term impact and can contribute to a more fragmented response to armed conflicts and threats to international peace and security.
The EU’s international cyber and digital engagements
Digital transformation is a key priority for the European Union. It drives economic growth and enables societal development. However, the EU’s leadership in digital matters and its capacity to deliver are not universally recognised. There is skepticism about the EU’s leadership and its vision for a human-centric digital future - one that places human rights and the rule of law at the center of technological innovation and digital transformation. Simultaneously, the EU’s global influence is limited by its own ability to deliver certain critical capabilities in the digital and cyber domains. While expectations for the EU’s role have grown, cyber and digital policies are governed primarily by an intergovernmental method. This policy brief looks at how the EU frames and implements its international cyber and digital engagements with third countries. What drives the cooperation and and what are the specific tools and mechanisms deployed by the EU? The policy brief also considers implications for Norway.
Friendship in International Politics
In the international political discourse of the early 21st century, claims of friendship and “special ties” between states and their leaders are commonplace. Frequently reported by international media, such claims are often used as entry points for scholars and pundits seeking to evaluate the contents, relative strength, and present-day conditions of a given state-to-state relationship. Advancing the claim that friendships not only exist but also matter in and to the international political domain, international relations scholars began in the mid-2000s to trace and explore friendship—as a concept and practice—across time, societies, cultural contexts, and scientific disciplines. As part of the research agenda on friendship in international politics, scholars have explored why, how, and under what conditions friendships between states emerge, evolve, subsist, and dissolve; how amicable structures are typically organized; how they manifest themselves on a day-to-day basis; and what short- and long-term implications they may have for international political processes, dynamics, outcomes, and orders.
Annex to the report 'Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks'
This annex is connected to the NUPI Report 'Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks' found here: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/norway-s-strategic-dependencies-in-global-supply-chain-networks
Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks
Economic interdependence and global supply chains are being investigated anew. For a long time, a belief in the ability of growing economic ties to foster cooperation, dampen conflict, and enhance prosperity was predominant in academic and political thinking alike. However, these assumptions have recently proven to be half-truths at best. Rather than dampen conflict, the asymmetries of global supply chains have turned them into coercive tools for the powerful to wield against the powerless. Through sanctions and export controls, states controlling vital chokepoints in global economic networks can cause harm in targeted states, and through controlling the nodes of information highways, intelligence agencies can gain access to sensitive information by leveraging the key position of their domestic companies. For states with small, open economies, this development poses a thorny problem: the toolbox for realigning global supply chains is limited, but reliance on supply chains beyond national control is extensive. The problem is not limited to being in a position of dependence, however. For smaller states, being in control over global assets, or being a key provider of a product or resource others depend on can be a double-edged sword. As economic coercion becomes more widely deployed, the impetus for protecting and securing assets increases, and the risk that they might drag smaller states into geopolitical contests grows. Addressing these concerns, it is vital to develop tools, frameworks, and methodologies for assessing supply chains from a national perspective, with a focus on how economic interdependence might introduce geopolitical risks. Against this background, this report builds on recent theoretical and methodological developments for analyzing global supply chains in light of their potential for geopolitical weaponization. More precisely, it will study Norway’s position in global value chains by combining recent methodological developments on the network analysis of supply chains and recent analysis of country-level aggregated analysis of supply dependencies. This allows for a study of supply chains as networks of economic relations, in which the position of different national economies contains both strategic capacities, or assets, by being central suppliers on which other countries depend, and vulnerabilities, by depending heavily on other countries. The report thus uses network analysis to identify Norway’s positions and their related strategic vulnerabilities and assets. Link to the Annex for this report: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/annex-to-the-report-norway-s-strategic-dependencies-in-global-supply-chain-networks
How does climate change affect peace and security?
This comic is based on findings from our series of Climate, Peace, and Security Fact Sheets, which aim to present reliable, relevant, timely and actionable information and analysis on climate-related peace and security risks in selected countries and regions on the United Nations Security Council Agenda. The Climate, Peace, and Security Fact Sheets are a joint product by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), with funding from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The information in this comic does not necessarily reflect the views of the donor.
A role for state governments in social licensing for renewable energy projects in Mexico
In Mexico, energy governance has mainly been a federal matter. However, the state (regional) governments, motivated by environmental and climate concerns, economic development opportunities, and social community needs, have recently started to explore ways to facilitate renewable energy development. But although state governments claim renewable energy reduces energy poverty and express support for a just transition, these projects do not seem to have social licenses—explicit support for them to proceed—at the local community level. The discrepancy between rhetoric and reality is related to the way these projects are negotiated and implemented. In this policy brief we examine two paths that the Mexican states can take to improve the social licensing of renewable energy projects. First, they can establish a framework for ethical conduct and evaluation of the potential impacts of renewable energy projects, including elements such as adherence to international standards, inclusive planning processes, and environmental and social impact assessments. Second, they can implement proactive, engagement-focused measures that empower state and local governments to facilitate renewable energy projects and reduce transaction costs.
Mapping renewable energy policy development at the state level in Mexico
This report maps renewable energy policy development at the state (provincial) level in Mexico and tracks early experiences with renewable energy deployment in four selected Mexican states. “Renewable energy policy” refers to the policy instruments that state governments have adopted to facilitate renewable energy deployment (e.g., long-term climate and energy strategies and subsidies), and the institutionalization of these instruments through the establishment of state entities responsible for their implementation (e.g., state energy agencies).
EEA at 30
This report is in Norwegian only. During 30 years, Norway has participated in the EU internal market via the EEA (European Economic Area) agreement. According to available research, this has led to a strong increase in trade and a real income gain of about 2-6%. On top of this, there are other gains, for example administrative cost savings due to common rules in the EEA, and welfare gains due to common environmental standards in Europa. The EEA agreement is unique by having an extensive set of common rules that are continuously updated. Thousands of EEA rules are part of national laws and practice that people and firms meet every day without necessarily knowing that they are due to the EEA. The eastern enlargement from 2004 extended the EEA into an integrated and growing market with more than 500 million inhabitants and has led to economic and social convergence in Europe since the new members have trebled their incomes. Migrants from the new member Norway have high work participation rates and currently represent about ¼ of immigrants in Norway. The EU is still clearly Norway’s largest partner with about 60% for trade as well as investment. Within the EEA, trade with and between the new member states has grown fastest. For trade in goods, the EEA has led to a seamless common market for the sectors that are included. Also for services, the EEA has led to stronger integration but differences between national regulations still impede trade. Completion of the internal market for services is important for small and medium-sized enterprises, and important to create efficient value chains in Norway and Europe. During the EEA period, Norway had a sizeable terms-of-trade gain due to stronger price growth for exports than for imports. Trade within as well as beyond the EEA contributed to this. During recent years, the EU has modified the rulebook on state aid, partly motivated by the green transition and subsidies in China and the USA. This leads to a new industrial policy, with new forms of cooperation where EFTA may participate, however with some challenges. Digitalisation has created new global challenges where the EU plays a leading role as regulator, with impact also for the EEA. In particular, common regulations in telecommunication have led to considerable gains and contributed to competitive digital services. In the new trade policy climate, the borderline between what is inside and outside the EEA becomes more blurred. An example is climate policy, where Norway through the EEA participates in the EU emission quota trading system but it is not yet clear whether Norway should introduce EUs carbon tax on imports from third countries (CBAM). Cooperation with the EU increasingly affects trade policy viz. third countries, where EFTA traditionally had autonomy. The new geopolitics also create trade policy challenges not covered by the EEA, where the EU introduces new measures while EFTA does not have a clear response. In some areas, for example export restrictions and sanctions, Norway has an ever-closer cooperation with the EU.