The future of the US nuclear guarantee
The war in Ukraine has the potential to fundamentally reshape Europe’s security landscape. This challenge is compounded by the deepening security cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, political dysfunction in the United States raises concerns, and significant shifts in US security policy could diminish its commitment to Europe. Nuclear weapons play a pivotal role in great power politics. The modernization of US strategic nuclear forces presents a major challenge. These developments may erode the credibility of the US extended deterrence and nuclear guarantee to Europe. Given this context, it is crucial for European allies to strengthen their conventional defense capabilities, reducing reliance on nuclear forces. In addition, Europe should actively advocate for a robust nuclear deterrent. Although US tactical or sub-strategic nuclear weapons stationed in Europe represent only a small portion of America’s overall nuclear arsenal, they remain important. European nations should also pursue greater operational cooperation with US strategic forces, including hosting US strategic aircraft operations in their airspace and participating in joint training and exercises.
The Most Important U.S. Election in a Generation
US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security
How will the outcome of the US election impact security policy in the UK and Northern Europe? The report discusses potential consequences of a victory for Harris and Trump respectively, as well as the new British government's security policy orientation. What does this mean for Norway and Northern Europe?
The Evolution of US Military Presence on NATO’s Eastern Flank: Reassuring Allies, Deterring Russia, and Managing Escalation
Concurrent with increasing Russian revanchism and aggression from 2014, the US approach to military presence on NATO’s Eastern flank has evolved. Overall, the development could be perceived as change in rationale from reassurance of allies to deterrence of Russia by punishment and, in recent years, deterrence by denial. This has resulted in altered structures for presence, resulting in changes of dispositions on the ground that has contributed to increasing the credibility of NATO’s deterrence doctrine. The rhetorical offensiveness of U.S. strategic communication has also become more powerful and exercise activity scaled up. This indicates a change in US perception of escalating activity. There is persistent bipartisan agreement on the continuation of US deep-engagement in Europe, with similar perceptions in the US military-leadership. This underpins the theory of an “institutionalized practice” of military presence and Great Power Persistence. The enhanced credibility of US-NATO deterrence on the Eastern flank lowers the likelihood of fait accompli-scenarios. This has security implications for countries located elsewhere that Russia may wish to challenge, both conventionally and through Hybrid means.
Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy in 2024: a status quo nation in a time of global turmoil
What is the Norwegian public’s opinion on the state of the world? And what foreign policy does it want the Norwegian government to pursue? In this report, we present the findings from an opinion poll conducted by Sentio for NUPI in the period 18 to 24 April 2024. The global landscape is deeply unsettled, and we find ourselves in an era marked by considerable uncertainty about future developments in world politics. The great power rivalry between the United States and China is intensifying, the war in Ukraine continues to rage, the war in Gaza is causing immense human suffering and having major ramifications for the Middle East, and the effects of global warming are becoming increasingly apparent. The Norwegian government has warned through, for example, its intelligence service’s annual report on security threats, that Norway is facing its most serious security situation in decades.1 However, a key finding in our report is that the Norwegian public is somewhat measured in its assessments and considers the general threat level for Norway to be moderate, i.e. at a normal level. This suggests that the government’s actions have minimal impact on public opinion on world politics. The public’s failure to grasp the severity of the security situation is both surprising and alarming, as is its disregard for official communications about the geopolitical threats facing Norway. Against the backdrop of limited crisis comprehension, we see a relatively stable development in the Norwegian public’s attitudes to foreign policy since 2021, with the notable exception of attitudes to Russia, which have clearly hardened. NUPI conducted similar studies in 2020 and in connection with the general election in 2021,2 and in this report, we have asked many of the same questions as previously, in addition to some new ones. We therefore take this opportunity to compare our findings with the previous studies where appropriate, to gauge the extent of change in public opinion. This report and the survey it presents is financed by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung.
US and UK Elections: Implications for NATO and Northern European Security
This report was written before President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 US President Elections. An updated report can be found here: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/us-and-uk-elections-implications-for-nato-and-northern-european-security2 Elections on both sides of the Atlantic have highlighted diverging views and increasing tensions over the importance of the security alliance, which celebrates its 75th anniversary this year. The most impactful election will undoubtedly take place in the United States, where the two candidates present Europe with remarkably different challenges. The re-election of President Joseph Biden to a second consecutive term in office will largely represent continuity albeit few clear incentives to undertake the transformational changes necessary for Europe to adapt to an increasingly volatile security landscape. On the other hand, if former President Donald Trump secures a second term in the Oval Office, Europeans could see their transatlantic security alliance thrown into turmoil and could be forced to consider difficult and uncomfortable steps to strengthen their own security. Voters will also head to the polls across Europe, including in the highly anticipated European Parliament elections, which will shape the composition of the next iteration of EU institutions. However, most notable for Northern European security will be elections in the United Kingdom on July 4th, which could lead to a change in the governing party for the first time in 14 years. A recent commitment by Downing Street to increase defence spending to 2.5 % by 2030 – reaching £87 billion in that year – has upped the ante towards its Labour opposition, which has suggested a similar increase but without providing a specific timeframe. As the NATO Alliance prepares for a 75th anniversary celebration in Washington, DC, questions loom regarding its capacity to deter a potentially emboldened Russia, particularly considering the Kremlin’s recent advances in the war in Ukraine, now entering its third year. This analysis assesses the implications of the upcoming elections on both sides of the Atlantic. It combines perspectives from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway, and assesses implications for NATO, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and future security in Northern Europe.
Breakfast seminar: USA and geopolitics
Kenneth R. Weinstein will give us insight into US foreign policy and geopolitics at this seminar.
Zooming in on the U.S.
Går verden slik vi kjenner den i oppløsning?
De fleste av oss har vokst opp med tanken om at verden blir bedre og bedre, det blir mindre fattigdom og krig og demokratiet sprer seg. Men nå er...
The US election and the global security order
Join us when leading experts will explore the current state of democracy in the USA and its profound implications for global security policies in the next coming years.