Researcher
Indra Overland
Contactinfo and files
Summary
Research Professor Indra Overland heads NUPI’s Center for Energy Research and is Associate Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
He works on energy issues in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, especially Indonesia and Myanmar. He started working on Southeast Asia in 1992, worked as a long-term political observer in Cambodia for the Joint International Observer Group (JIOG), led cooperation with Chulalongkorn University, the Myanmar Institute for Strategic and International Studies (MISIS), the OSCE Academy, and has twice been a Visiting Fellow at the ASEAN Centre for Energy in Jakarta.
Indra Overland is coauthor of the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report; has been published in Nature Energy; has been awarded the Marcel Cadieux Prize, the Toby Jackman Prize, the Kjetil Stuland Prize and “Kemp’s Best in Energy” (Reuters); and has been rated among the 300 most prolific researchers in Norway and the ninth most followed Norwegian researcher in social media.
He strives to communicate his research to the public and has been interviewed or cited by Al Jazeera, Associated Press, BBC World Service, Berlingske, Bloomberg, CBC, CNN, de Volkskrant, El País, Forbes, Financial Times, Helsingin Sanomat, Het Financieele Dagblad, Hokkaido Shimbun, Le Monde, Le Point, MSN, Newsweek, Politico, Rzeczpospolita, The Economist, The Guardian, The Japan Times, The Straits Times, The New York Times, The Telegraph, Times Literary Supplement, Toronto Star, Tribune de Geneve, Vietnam+, Wall Street China, Wall Street Journal, 24 Heures.
His recent research includes “ASEAN’s energy transition: how to attract more investment in renewable energy”, (Energy, Ecology and Environment, 2023), “Integrating 100% renewable energy into electricity systems: A net-zero analysis for Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar” (Energy Reports, 2023), “Moving beyond the NDCs: ASEAN pathways to a net-zero emissions power sector in 2050” (Applied Energy, 2022), “The ASEAN climate and energy paradox” (Energy and Climate Change, 2021), “Environmental performance of foreign firms: Chinese and Japanese firms in Myanmar”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021), “Vietnam's solar and wind power success: Policy implications for the other ASEAN countries” (Energy for Sustainable Development, 2021), “Sharing the Spoils: Winners and Losers in the Belt and Road Initiative in Myanmar”, Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 2020), “Local and global aspects of coal in the ASEAN Countries” (Handbook of Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources, 2020), The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook” (ACE, 2020), “Impact of Climate Change on ASEAN International Affairs: Risk and Opportunity Multiplier” (NUPI 2017).
Expertise
Education
2000 PhD, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Geography, University of Cambridge
Aktivitet
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Clear all filtersEU climate and energy policy: new challenges for old energy suppliers
Climate policy will transform the EU energy demand mix. This has implications for the main suppliers of fossil fuels to the EU, foremost among which are Algeria, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. Norway has a better starting point for adapting to changing EU energy demand than the other energy suppliers and therefore represents a best-case scenario. Whatever Norway fails to do, the other countries are even less likely to achieve. The question is whether Norway has been quick enough to exploit the opportunities to play a proactive role in the EU’s energy transition. This chapter argues that it has not, dragging its feet on natural gas vehicles, Norwegian wind power, electricity interconnectors, green battery development and mixing of hydrogen into natural gas. Some possible reasons for the tardiness are Norway’s dual resource course of oil and hydropower, carbon lock-in, energy populism, resource nationalism and blind spots in the perception of Norway’s place in international climate and energy policy.
Kazakhstan: Civil Society and Natural Resource Policy in Kazakhstan
In Kazakhstan, civil society is held back and has had a limited role in the management of the petroleum sector. As this chapter notes, civil society has had little experience of promoting its own interests vis-à-vis the state, and public discussion of natural resource issues has been mainly government-driven. The fact that Kazakhstan made a notable step forward—from being a collapsing socialist economy in the 1990s to becoming a regional economic player with improved social and economic performance—has helped to legitimize non-transparent natural resource policies. As long as the socio-economic situation continues to improve or remains stable, the non-transparent management of natural resources is likely to be accepted by the population, which, like the Russian population, puts a premium on stability. The relative passivity of civil society has been compensated by Kazakhstan’s exposure to international initiatives and organizations such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and numerous UN agencies. As in Azerbaijan, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) has provided a platform for some civil society engagement with industry and government.
Public Brainpower: Civil Society and Natural Resource Management
This book discusses how civil society, public debate and freedom of speech affect the management of natural resources. Drawing on the work of Robert Dahl, Jürgen Habermas and Robert Putnam, the book introduces the concept of public brainpower. Good governance of natural resources requires fertile public debate – to conceive new institutions, to provide checks and balances on existing institutions and to ensure their continuous dynamic evolution as the needs of society change. The book explores the strengths and weaknesses of these ideas through case studies of 18 oil and gas-producing countries: Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Canada, Colombia, Egypt, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Libya, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK and Venezuela. The concluding chapter presents 10 tenets on how states can maximize their public brainpower, as well as a ranking of how well 33 resource-rich countries have succeeded in doing so. Four of the chapters – ‘Introduction’, ‘Norway’, ‘Kazakhstan’ and ‘Russia’ – are available under a CC BY 4.0 Open Access license at ResearchGate: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320656629_Introduction_Civil_Society_Public_Debate_and_Natural_Resource_Management (Introduction) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320657120 (Norway) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320657015 (Kazakhstan) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320657842 (Russia)
Impact of Climate Change on ASEAN International Affairs: Risk and Opportunity Multiplier
This study examines the implications of climate change for international affairs in Southeast Asia and for ASEAN as a multilateral organization. Climate change and efforts to mitigate climate change give rise to major risks as well as opportunities in international affairs. It is therefore in the interest of all countries to be aware of the risks and prepare for them, and the overarching purpose of this study is to support ASEAN and its member states in this area. Given Southeast Asia’s complex geography—with numerous archipelagoes, long coastlines, intricate borders, and great-power neighbors—climate change is especially likely to affect interstate relations in the region.Climate change may impact on international affairs among the ASEAN countries at several levels. Firstly, changing climatic conditions may affect interstate relations through humanitarian crises, migration, and/or the need for greater imports of vital goods. Secondly, reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires international coordination and cooperation. Thirdly, the global energy transition driven by climate policy may lead to an altered geopolitical situation in the world, including ASEAN.
Political economy analyses
This project provides political economy analyses of eleven countries deemed important to Norwegian development cooperation. ...
Ukrainian energy market in transition: How can it succeed in a new geopolitical setting?
NUPI and NUCC invites leading experts to share their views in recent changes in the Ukrainian energy market.
The Geopolitics of Renewable Energy
For a century, the geopolitics of energy has been synonymous with the geopolitics of oil and gas. However, geopolitics and the global energy economy are both changing. The international order predominant since the end of World War II faces mounting challenges. At the same time, renewable energy is growing rapidly. Nevertheless, the geopolitics of renewable energy has received relatively little attention, especially when considering the far-reaching consequences of a global shift to renewable energy. The paper starts with a discussion of seven renewable energy scenarios for the coming decades: the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2016, the EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2016, IRENA’s REmap 2016, Bloomberg’s New Energy Outlook 2016, BP’s Energy Outlook 2016, Exxon-Mobil’s Outlook for Energy 2016 and the joint IEA and IRENA G20 de-carbonization scenario. The paper then discusses seven mechanisms through which renewables could shape geopolitics: Critical materials supply chains, technology and finance, new resource curse, electric grids, reduced oil and gas demand, avoided climate change, and sustainable energy access.
Myanmars Attractiveness for Investment in the Energy Sector: A Comparative International Perspective
This report examines the strengths and weaknesses of Myanmar’s business climate in the petroleum and renewable energy sectors: how it compares with other countries, especially in ASEAN; what matters to foreign investors; and how this situation can be improved. Not resting on one’s (new) laurels: The recent international interest in Myanmar may prove counterproductive for the country’s investment climate, if this upsurge in interest induces the government to slow down in its reform efforts. When the novelty of Myanmar wears off, that may become a problem. Indeed, possible signs of such a slowdown can be observed already. According to official data, FDI in Myanmar decreased significantly in the first four months of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015. Investors were increasingly cautious and worried about the slow pace of reform, delays in establishing a panel to approve new investment projects and the lack of clarity on the country’s new economic development strategy (DVB, 2016). This highlights the importance of working constantly to improve the investment climate and staying in close contact with investors, keeping them informed about developments. Challenges common to the petroleum and renewables sectors: Lack of data and information for market entry; fragmented institutional and regulatory framework; low levels of electricity access and digitalization; low international oil prices. Challenges in the petroleum sector: Limited supply-industry infrastructure and lack of local engineers; MOGE petroleum sector monopolization and conflicts of interest; limited geological data; complicated taxation; weak government–business communication; challenges in finding local partners; time-consuming licensing procedures; paper-based communication and lack of e-government; production-sharing agreements biased towards participation of large oil companies, excluding smaller ones; frequent changes in legislation; closed downstream market. Challenges in the renewable energy sector: No national target or legislation on renewable energy; no dedicated public agency regulating the sector; lack of business associations; subsidies for grid electricity generated from fossil fuels disadvantage off-grid renewables; access to suitable land; complex mountainous terrain and protected areas as well as political instability in these areas; underdeveloped grid system for large-scale production; lack of data on the renewable-energy resource potential; limited infrastructure for technical support and maintenance; high cost of installing solar panels and wind turbines; disintegrated biofuel production and supply markets; lack of local specialists; no taxation system for renewables; security risks in conflict-prone Kachin, Rakhine and Shan states. Opportunities in the petroleum and renewable energy sectors: Government commitment to reform; advantageous location as part of the Greater Mekong Subregion and ASEAN, close to the Chinese and Indian markets; significant resource base, especially natural gas, hydropower and bioenergy; rapidly rising energy demand in Myanmar and neighbouring countries; high demand for investment in refineries, oil terminals, oil barges and petrol stations; opportunities in retail business; new petroleum and renewable energy laws are underway; abundant semi-skilled labour, and low cost of unskilled labour; low levels of corruption and criminality. Initially, companies may perceive the business climate as unpredictable, but, having entered the market, and having learned and adapted to local conditions, companies experience greater predictability. Opportunities in the petroleum sector: Relatively transparent tender system; equal treatment of investors; government experience and capacity; market maturity. Myanmar’s strategic location, with rapidly rising energy demand among hundreds of millions of people in the neighbouring countries and low transportation costs (especially for gas delivery to China, India and Thailand), represents an opportunity to foreign investors. Opportunities in the renewable energy sector: Latecomer advantage; low level of electrification increases cost advantage of off-grid electrification; support from international donors; strong civil society actors are promoting renewable energy development.
Security in Europe - Polish and Norwegian Perspectives (PISM_NUPI_Bilateral)
The main aim of this collaborative project (PISM and NUPI) is to map the Polish and Norwegian approaches towards various types of security related challenges in the European and regional context. ...