Researcher
Indra Overland
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Summary
Research Professor Indra Overland heads NUPI’s Center for Energy Research and is Associate Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
He works on energy issues in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, especially Indonesia and Myanmar. He started working on Southeast Asia in 1992, worked as a long-term political observer in Cambodia for the Joint International Observer Group (JIOG), led cooperation with Chulalongkorn University, the Myanmar Institute for Strategic and International Studies (MISIS), the OSCE Academy, and has twice been a Visiting Fellow at the ASEAN Centre for Energy in Jakarta.
Indra Overland is coauthor of the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report; has been published in Nature Energy; has been awarded the Marcel Cadieux Prize, the Toby Jackman Prize, the Kjetil Stuland Prize and “Kemp’s Best in Energy” (Reuters); and has been rated among the 300 most prolific researchers in Norway and the ninth most followed Norwegian researcher in social media.
He strives to communicate his research to the public and has been interviewed or cited by Al Jazeera, Associated Press, BBC World Service, Berlingske, Bloomberg, CBC, CNN, de Volkskrant, El País, Forbes, Financial Times, Helsingin Sanomat, Het Financieele Dagblad, Hokkaido Shimbun, Le Monde, Le Point, MSN, Newsweek, Politico, Rzeczpospolita, The Economist, The Guardian, The Japan Times, The Straits Times, The New York Times, The Telegraph, Times Literary Supplement, Toronto Star, Tribune de Geneve, Vietnam+, Wall Street China, Wall Street Journal, 24 Heures.
His recent research includes “ASEAN’s energy transition: how to attract more investment in renewable energy”, (Energy, Ecology and Environment, 2023), “Integrating 100% renewable energy into electricity systems: A net-zero analysis for Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar” (Energy Reports, 2023), “Moving beyond the NDCs: ASEAN pathways to a net-zero emissions power sector in 2050” (Applied Energy, 2022), “The ASEAN climate and energy paradox” (Energy and Climate Change, 2021), “Environmental performance of foreign firms: Chinese and Japanese firms in Myanmar”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 2021), “Vietnam's solar and wind power success: Policy implications for the other ASEAN countries” (Energy for Sustainable Development, 2021), “Sharing the Spoils: Winners and Losers in the Belt and Road Initiative in Myanmar”, Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 2020), “Local and global aspects of coal in the ASEAN Countries” (Handbook of Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources, 2020), The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook” (ACE, 2020), “Impact of Climate Change on ASEAN International Affairs: Risk and Opportunity Multiplier” (NUPI 2017).
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Education
2000 PhD, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Geography, University of Cambridge
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Clear all filtersDid China Bankroll Russia’s Annexation of Crimea? The Role of Sino-Russian Energy Relations
This chapter is an empirical analysis of energy cooperation between China and Russia, centred on the Ukrainian crisis as a defining event of the partnership. Despite China’s officially neutral political stance on Crimea, the increased frequency of meetings to discuss joint energy projects and the signing of the largest energy deal in world history created the impression that China actively stepped in and supplied the necessary financing to get Russia through sanctions over Crimea and the oil price collapse of 2014–2016. The chapter assesses this hypothesis by examining the long-term trends in lending, investments and trade trends between the two countries, and by taking a closer look at Chinese involvement in four concrete energy projects managed by some of the main Russian energy companies: Power of Siberia, Yamal LNG, Vankor and ESPO. While there is evidence of increased Chinese investments in Russia and a surge of Russian oil imports to China after the annexation, the authors conclude that China was not the major force keeping Russia’s wheels turning during the pre- and post-Crimea years. The involvement of China in the major Russian energy projects was planned and negotiated long before the annexation of Crimea. The authors therefore argue that China did not step in to bankroll Russia after Crimea, instead long-term trends in cooperation simply continued. On the other hand, clearly the long-term growth in cooperation between the two countries reduces Russia’s dependency on the West and provides greater elbowroom for its foreign policy.
Lonely Minds: Natural Resource Governance without Input from Society
This concluding chapter draws together the threads from the 18 case studies of oil- and gas-producing countries, relating them to the theoretical concept of ‘public brainpower’ and the arguments presented in the introductory chapter. It elaborates on the concept of public brainpower in greater detail, adding important caveats related to some possible detrimental effects of public debate: volatility, polarization, populism and mock democracy. Ten tenets on how to achieve public brainpower are formulated, and a ranking of the public brainpower of 33 resource-rich countries is presented. The chapter rounds off with suggestions for further research.
Variations on Public Brainpower: Findings from Country Case Studies of Oil- and Gas-Producing Countries
This chapter sums up the 18 case-study chapters that make up the bulk of this volume and prepares the ground for the concluding chapter. It begins by reviewing and highlighting the case-study findings, followed by notes and reflections on some general challenges encountered in the preparation of the book and the research conducted for the case studies. Inaccessibility of information and lack of expertise in some countries indicate a lack of available minds and voices to record, analyse, comment on and propose changes to petroleum policy in those countries. The impact of censorship extends well beyond the borders of authoritarian states, affecting, for instance, the statements and publications of foreign experts who may fear losing access to visas and contacts in countries where they have spent their entire careers building up their professional competence.
Russia: Public Debate and the Petroleum Sector
In Russia, civil society engagement with the petroleum sector is surprisingly rich and varied for a country that is ranked low on most democracy-related indicators. This chapter finds that there is a lively and varied public debate, with business associations, research institutes, independent experts, indigenous organizations and the few surviving independent media actively and often competently analysing and commenting on a broad range of issues related to the oil and gas sector. Russians were early users of social media, which occasionally also function as a platform for discussion of petroleum policy issues. However, the real impact of civil society on decision-making and policy formulation in the petroleum sector is not as great as the diversity of actors and discussion might imply. One key reason is the tight government control over mainstream media outlets. The situation for free speech and civil society worsened steadily from around 2004 to 2016. As in neighbouring Kazakhstan, the Russian population puts a high premium on stability over freedom. While a central concern in this book is whether the media and civil society have any influence on the petroleum sector, in Russia the paradoxical situation is that the relationship is often reversed: the gas company Gazprom, rather than another organizational vehicle, is used by the government to control key mass media; and the oil company Yukos played a central role in promoting civil society until its main owner Mikhail Khodorkovskiy was arrested and the company was carved up.
Norway: Public Debate and the Management of Petroleum Resources and Revenues
This chapter assesses the importance of civil society involvement and public debate for Norwegian petroleum governance. It finds that during the early years of the country’s oil and gas development most important choices were made by a small number of decision-makers in government with little input from the broader society. The attitude of government officials was therefore decisive for Norway’s early successes. During the two first decades of Norway’s petroleum era, also economists at the Ministry of Finance, the Norwegian School of Economics, Statistics Norway and the University of Oslo played important roles. One of the greatest successes of Norwegian oil and gas governance, the sovereign wealth fund, was created by technocrats in interaction with politicians. However, over time, and in a way similar to the Netherlands, civil society and public debate came to play more influential roles. What characterizes contemporary Norwegian petroleum governance is that it has many legs to stand on: an active and diverse civil society, free and diverse media, many political parties representing differing interests, numerous institutions of research and higher education and, importantly, a strong technocracy inside and outside government. In combination, these legs provide for both reliability and dynamism, as Norwegian petroleum governance is constantly evolving. Finally, a key aspect of Norway’s Nordic model is constant compromise – which is difficult to achieve in more polarized societies.
Introduction: Civil Society, Public Debate and Natural Resource Management
The introductory chapter establishes the analytical framework for this edited volume. The literature on the resource curse and institutions is briefly discussed, along with the work on civil society and the public sphere by Almond and Verba, Dahl, Habermas and Putnam. Drawing on these classics, the theoretical concept of ‘public brainpower’ is formulated. The main pillar of public brainpower is polycentricity, or the coexistence of many different public actors freely expressing their thoughts: individual citizens, political parties, trade unions, charities, companies, research institutes, religious institutions, mass media and government institutions. The more polycentric a society is, the greater is its brainpower: its memory becomes more comprehensive and multifaceted, different actors can perform quality control of each other’s ideas and arguments, and it is more difficult to repress challenging views. Above all, a polycentric society has a broader base for creativity. The greater the public brainpower of a society, the better its management of natural resources. Finally, the 18 case studies of oil- and gas-producing countries are presented, along with the methodology and definitions of key terminology used throughout the volume.
A Place in the Sun? IRENA’s Position in the Global Energy Governance Landscape
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), created in 2009, is the only intergovernmental organization dedicated to renewable energy. Drawing on several new datasets, this article explores IRENA in the context of three other major international energy organizations: the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Through this analysis, several empirical approaches to comparing international energy organizations are tried out. Direct comparison between IRENA other international energy organizations is found to be problematic as each organization is different and comparisons inevitably encounter apples and oranges type issues. The study finds that IRENA’s niche in international renewable energy governance is not yet fully carved out, but that the organization’s mandate and institutional structure, as well as recent international developments, indicate that it may grow rapidly in importance.
The Philippines, ASEAN and climate change
What did the Philippines achieve in its chairmanship of ASEAN in 2017? And what challenges lie ahead for the ASEAN countries related to climate change?
Myanmar – challenges and opportunities
UN Resident Coordinator and UNDP representative in Myanmar, Knut Østby and researchers Roman Vakulchuk and Kristian Stokke will take a closer look at Myanmar, and the political and economic challenges the country is facing.
Myanmar: A Political Economy Analysis
Myanmar may for a long time remain in a transitional state with an uncertain future. After a series of political and economic liberalization reforms from 2011 onwards, Myanmar’s political trajectory remains open-ended, although the most plausible scenario remains a continued slow democratization process. The democratic opening has been driven largely by the interest of the military rulers in changing Myanmar’s relations with Western states and thereby gaining leverage vis-à-vis China. Continued military influence, persistent capacity problems in political parties and parliamentary politics, weak channels of political representation and limited administrative capacity give rise to critical questions about the substance of democratization and economic development in Myanmar. The country’s informal economy is one of the largest in the world and is upheld by informal elite pacts that were formed in the military era, often involving high-ranking officers and crony companies. Along with a high level of corruption and lack of redistributive mechanisms the continuing cronyism hinders inclusive growth. If these economic structures persist, social and ethnic conflicts may intensify and progress towards further democratization stall. Despite this, foreign direct investments in resource extraction and other sectors have been on the rise since 2011 and are likely to continue. Myanmar is also ranked as the world’s second-most vulnerable country to climate change. The government needs a better understanding of climate change and its effects – both its direct impacts on Myanmar and its indirect impacts via neighbouring countries such as Bangladesh. As Myanmar remains at a crossroads, smart external assistance may have greater long-term impact in Myanmar than in other recipient countries where the situation is less volatile. However, donors may also become increasingly frustrated and reduce their assistance because of the ongoing Rohingya crisis and because of the limited local capacity to absorb international assistance.