In July 2022, heavy torrential rains destroyed the homes of almost 22 000 people in Bangui and surrounding prefectures, adding to an already dire humanitarian crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR). Years of armed conflict and humanitarian crisis, low capacity of state institutions and low levels of household and community resilience make the population of CAR highly vulnerable to the compound impacts of climate change. While the projected physical effects of climate change on CAR are among the lowest for the continent, the combination of population growth and weak adaptive capacities – accentuated by protracted conflicts and Covid-19 – renders the impacts of climate change severe. Additionally, transhumance from the Sahel is increasingly impacting CAR and further aggravating the consequences of climate change.
- With few functioning weather stations, there is limited knowledge of the current state of climate change in CAR. However, based on information from the wider region, climate change is expected to lead to more frequent and intense extreme weather events such as flooding and droughts.
- More extreme weather is likely to have a detrimental impact on livelihoods and food security in CAR. The ongoing conflict and a low-functioning state are detrimental to households’ adaptation capacities, disproportionally affecting women and women-led households.
- Pastoral ecosystems in the Sahel and Central Africa cross international borders. The impacts of climate change in the wider region contributes to altering transhumance patterns, increasing both the volume and spread of transhumance into CAR. This contributes to the strain on livelihoods and, indirectly, conflict dynamics in CAR.