NEW BOOK: Sahel – The perfect storm?
A banner of Vladimir Putin is displayed at a protest in Ouagadougou in 2023 supporting Burkina Faso’s junta and calling for the departure of French forces. The rally reflects Russia’s growing presence in the Sahel as security conditions deteriorate.
The Sahel region in Africa is one of the world’s most unstable areas. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 4.2 million people here have been displaced from their homes. In his new book, Sahel – The Perfect Storm, NUPI researcher Morten Bøås analyses how jihadist insurgencies, climate change and state failure together have created an explosive crisis – a “perfect storm” about to break loose.
Book release Thursday
Released on June 19th and affiliated with the research project Jihadist Governance in the Sahel, the book offers an accessible and in-depth analysis of the evolving crisis in the Sahel, with Mali as its point of departure.
– This is where the crisis began in 2012, and the country remains the epicenter, Bøås explains.
From this point, Bøås organizes his analysis in three main parts. First, he examines the trajectory from the 2012 rebellion in Mali to the coup in 2020. He then delves into the region’s historical and structural causes of the crisis. Finally, the book explores how the Sahel has become a stage for great power rivalry – with actors like the Wagner Group at the center.
A region unraveling
The Sahel stretches from the Sahara Desert in the north to savannah regions in the south, covering parts of ten countries. In many areas, state presence is weak or entirely absent. Everyday life is impacted by smuggling, high unemployment rates and local resistance to central authority.
– When the climate crisis undermines people’s livelihoods, the population is growing faster than anywhere else in the world and trust in foreign interventions is eroding, a dangerous and complex situation emerges, Bøås explains.
According to the UN, 80 percent of agricultural land in the Sahel is affected by climate change. At the same time, more than 33 million people lack adequate access to food.
– Conflicts over resources such as water, pasture and minerals are intensifying and being exploited by power elites, while jihadist groups seek to gain local support, he continues.
A geopolitical hotspot
Bøås further outlines how the Sahel has become a geopolitical flashpoint. The UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA was expelled from Mali in 2023, and Russian actors like the Wagner Group have moved in. But reducing the crisis to a story about Russian influence is too simplistic, he warns.
– At its core is the deep and long-standing erosion of state legitimacy and trust, now being exploited by both local and external actors.
What’s at stake?
The book poses a critical question: What happens when climate crisis, insurgency, population pressure and geopolitical rivalry converge in a single region? The answer carries global implications – also for Europe.
But there is hope.
– The UN and EU once had strong legitimacy here. There is a path forward, but it requires a new approach, Bøås emphasizes.
Toward the end of the book, he therefore outlines an alternative agenda: A strategy that puts human security first, strengthens local state authority in collaboration with communities and prioritizes development projects over failed military interventions.
Sahel – The Perfect Storm is an essential read for anyone seeking to understand how global crises intersect – and why this matters to us all.