Norway and Poland as actors in a changing security landscape (NORPOLFACTOR)

Russia’s full-fledged war against Ukraine is a watershed event that has changed perceptions of security in both immediate neighbourhood and in the broader European and transatlantic context. Both Poland and Norway border on an increasingly more assertive Russia and are NATO's front states on the Eastern flank. 

This project aims to conduct a comparative examination of national, Polish and Norwegian, perceptions of security and the impact Russian invasion of Ukraine has had on these perceptions. 

Realisation of this joint Polish-Norwegian project mapping national perceptions of shifting security landscape with grave implications for national policies but also for cooperation within the international organisations Poland and Norway are members of, will provide an important input to policymaking in both countries. 

The aim is to help national decision makers to better coordinate their policies in various international fora. This cooperative effort will also provide support for national and international stakeholders responsible for formulation and implementation of security and foreign policies and will provide better instruments for addressing challenges and dealing with risks and threats caused by Russia aggressive behaviour in areas of strategic importance for both national Polish and Norwegian policies and for policies if international organisations Poland and Norway are members of or are affiliated with in other ways. 

The specific objectives to be achieved by the project include following tasks: 

• Assess and compare the security challenges in the High North and along the Eastern flank of NATO in Central Europe along the Polish border with Russia in the Kaliningrad region and Belarus and Ukraine in the context of Russian war in Ukraine
• Identify common patterns of military and defence-related activities conducted by the Russian Federation in both regions and provide evidence-based assessment of what use does Russia make of its presence in these two regions as a way of projecting various types of power beyond its borders
• Compare and analyse the impact Russia’s military build-up and activity in the Arctic/High North and in Central Europe (Kaliningrad and Belarus) will have for security of Norway and Poland
• Identify what other tools than military are used by the Russian Federation to project its power in the region and what national and international measures should be implemented to counter negative impacts of these Russian non-military malign activities
• Assess the impact of the deterrence measures adopted by NATO in the Northern and Central European parts of the Eastern Flank in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and how these measures influence the security of Norway and Poland
• Study the broader geopolitical and geo-economic implications of involvement of other major powers, first and foremost China, in both regions
• Propose recommendations for the decision-makers in Norway, Poland and NATO.