Policy brief
China’s Green Statecraft and NB8 Arctic Security
Written by
Dana Dūda
Head of the Asia Programme, Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA)
Konstantinas Andrijauskas
Konstantinas Andrijauskas, Associate Professor, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University (IIRPS VU)
Björn Cappelin
Björn Cappelin, Analyst, Swedish National China Centre at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs (UI)
Ed.
Summary:
Energy dependence has become a geopolitical liability. Russia’s war against Ukraine, the US-Iran war and tensions with the Kingdom of Denmark over Greenland have all exposed the strategic weight of energy independence, critical minerals, and Arctic access. For the eight Nordic-Baltic states (NB8), the next vulnerability may emerge from the green transition itself, where China’s dominance in clean technologies and critical mineral processing can be converted into strategic leverage. Some dependence is unavoidable in the short term; the task is to manage it deliberately rather than let it accumulate by default. This policy brief argues for integrating green energy security and Arctic security within a one strategic framework, because the Arctic’s critical mineral resources, renewable energy infrastructure and emerging transport and digital connectivity projects are relevant to Europe’s efforts to strengthen its energy dependence. This brief proposes collective measures to limit strategic dependence on China in the long term.
- Published year: 2026
- Publisher: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Page count: 5
- Language: English
- Volume: 2026
- Booklet: 6
Written by
Dana Dūda
Head of the Asia Programme, Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA)
Konstantinas Andrijauskas
Konstantinas Andrijauskas, Associate Professor, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University (IIRPS VU)
Björn Cappelin
Björn Cappelin, Analyst, Swedish National China Centre at the Swedish Institute for International Affairs (UI)