Policy brief
Published:
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somaila*
Written by
Katongo Seyuba
Researcher, Sipri
Thor Olav Iversen
Senior Researcher
Ed.
Florian Krampe
Senior Researcher, SIPRI
Cedric H. de Coning
Research Professor
Summary:
Somalia continues to grapple with increasingly severe and frequent climate shocks that impede people’s livelihoods, worsen the existing humanitarian crisis and influence local conflict dynamics over access to natural resources. In November 2025, after four consecutive failed rainy seasons had affected millions of people, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) declared a national drought emergency. Strong El Niño conditions are forecast to bring wetter-than-usual conditions during the October–December 2026 deyr rainy season, with a high risk of floods in central and southern Somalia. Some communities experience successive periods of drought and flooding without sufficient time to recover between shocks. These adverse effects of climate change are interacting with a volatile security situation, influenced by political competition and fragmentation, as well as continued clashes with al-Shabab, which contribute to deepening an already dire humanitarian crisis.
- Published year: 2026
- Publisher: NUPI & SIPRI
- Page count: 4
- Language: English