Preventing climate-change related conflict: Why Artificial Intelligence (AI) alone won’t close the early-warning response gap
Summary:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) brings new opportunities and challenges to international efforts to warn about and respond to climate change-related conflict. This policy brief discusses the benefits and risks of AI-enhanced Conflict Early Warning and Early Response (CEWER) systems for climate-induced conflict, demonstrating that the effectiveness of such systems depends on how well they can be aligned with context-specific approaches to data analysis. In this policy brief the author recommends the following:
• International partners should prioritise supporting locally embedded, participatory conflict early warning initiatives that carefully balance technical sophistication with local needs.
• National civil society organizations should increase their capacity to engage with AI systems and AI-generated information, to support the integration and uptake of AI-driven early warning systems among local communities.
• Research organisations and technology companies that build and supply AI-powered early warning systems should adopt human-centred design approaches.
• International partners should prioritise supporting locally embedded, participatory conflict early warning initiatives that carefully balance technical sophistication with local needs.
• National civil society organizations should increase their capacity to engage with AI systems and AI-generated information, to support the integration and uptake of AI-driven early warning systems among local communities.
• Research organisations and technology companies that build and supply AI-powered early warning systems should adopt human-centred design approaches.
- Published year: 2026
- Publisher: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Page count: 4
- Language: English
- Volume: 2026
- Booklet: 11
Written by
Andreas Hirblinger
Senior Research Fellow