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The Middle East and North Africa

The conflicts and crises in the Middle East and North Africa are central themes in NUPI research on the region.

What roles do the emergent big powers play in these conflicts? How do great-power politics influence regional dynamics? These are central question that affect relations elsewhere around the globe, especially as regards energy issues. Developments in individual countries like Egypt, Syria and Iran are also followed closely by NUPI researchers, as are questions of the security situation in the area and how this is affected by actors and conflicts elsewhere in Africa.
Research project
2019 - 2023 (Completed)

Preventing Violent Extremism in the Balkans and the MENA: Strengthening Resilience in Enabling Environments (PREVEX)

The overarching objective of PREVEX is to put forward more fine-tuned and effective approaches to preventing violent extremism....

  • Terrorism and extremism
  • Europe
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Conflict
  • Governance
  • The EU
  • Comparative methods
  • Terrorism and extremism
  • Europe
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Conflict
  • Governance
  • The EU
  • Comparative methods
Publications
Publications
Report

På tide å tenke nytt om Iran

(Available in Norwegian only): Det overordnede målet for USAs såkalte "maximum pressure"-strategi har vært å fremforhandle en bedre atomavtale med Iran, samt å svekke både Teherans innflytelse i Midtøsten og ayatollah Khameneis grep om makten. Men har strategien vært vellykket i å oppnå dette?

  • Security policy
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Security policy
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • The Middle East and North Africa
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical gains and losses after energy transition

This article presents the GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses that 156 countries may experience after a full-scale transition to renewable energy. The following indicators are considered for inclusion in the index: fossil fuel production, fossil fuel reserves, renewable energy resources, governance, and conflict. Some of these represent potential gains; some represent losses; and some the capacity of countries to handle changes in geopolitical strength. Five alternative versions of the index are developed to work out the optimal design. First, the energy resource indicators are combined with equal weights to create two simple versions of the index. Next, governance and conflict indicators are included to create three more complex versions of the index. The index provides useful pointers for strategic energy and foreign policy choices: geopolitical power will be more evenly distributed after an energy transition; Iceland will gain most; Russia may be one of the main holders of stranded geopolitical assets; China and the USA will lose more geopolitically than foreseen by other analyses. The index also indicates a lack of emphasis in parts of the literature on space for renewable energy infrastructure and on domestically sourced coal for the current strength of countries such as China and the United States.

  • Foreign policy
  • Europe
  • Russia and Eurasia
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • North America
  • South and Central America
  • The Arctic
  • The Nordic countries
  • Oceania
  • Conflict
  • Climate
  • Energy
  • Governance
  • Foreign policy
  • Europe
  • Russia and Eurasia
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • North America
  • South and Central America
  • The Arctic
  • The Nordic countries
  • Oceania
  • Conflict
  • Climate
  • Energy
  • Governance
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

Stater og transnasjonale motstandsnettverk: Irans mobilisering av irakiske sjiamilitser etter 1979

The Islamic Republic of Iran has been building a transnational network of Shi’a militias since 1979, commonly referred to as its asymmetric warfare capability and ‘strategic depth’. While it is a known fact that Iran has mobilised Shi’a militias in other countries to strengthen its regional position, how they have done it has not received much scholarly attention. The objective of this paper is to explain this phenomenon by examining how Iran has mobilised Iraqi Shi’a militias since 1979. The selected cases are the mobilisation processes of three most prominent Shi’a militias in Iraq today: Badr Organisation, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and Kata’ib Hizbullah. Although variation exists between them, they are all cases of Iran’s network of armed resistance groups, which have allowed it to engage in covert or indirect conflict intervention in the Middle East. To logically connect the empirical data with the study’s research question, I have used a case study research design, with process tracing and the semi-structured interview as methods for data collection. Furthermore, the empirical analysis has been guided by a theoretical framework that has attempted to build a bridge between the existing literatures on state-militia dynamics and contentious politics.

  • Security policy
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Conflict
  • Insurgencies
  • Security policy
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Conflict
  • Insurgencies
Articles
News
Articles
News

David Petraeus visits NUPI

NUPI had the pleasure of hosting David H. Petraeus on 30. September. The four-star General (Ret) and former director of CIA shared his insights and prognosis for the geopolitical landscape ahead at the event entitled “Global Security Threats and Western Responses”.

  • Defence and security
  • Security policy
  • Terrorism and extremism
  • NATO
  • Europe
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Asia
  • North America
  • Energy
David H. Petraeus
Illustrasjon av ulike mennesker som går oppå et Europa-kart med EU-ringen av stjerner
Research project
2019 - 2021 (Completed)

Migration and Development: Sharing knowledge between Norway and Poland (MiDeShare)

The aim of this project is to improve our understanding of the relationship between migration and development in order to suggest more effective policies for addressing root causes of migration in wea...

  • Development policy
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Africa
  • Humanitarian issues
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • Migration
  • Development policy
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Africa
  • Humanitarian issues
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • Migration
Articles
News
Articles
News

New project examines root causes of migration in Africa and the Middle East

What is the relationship between migration and development?

  • Development policy
  • Europe
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Africa
  • Humanitarian issues
  • Conflict
  • Fragile states
  • Migration
Bildet viser båtmigranter fra Libya i en gummibåt til havs i 2018
Articles
News
Articles
News

Top marks for NUPI’s EU project

Reviewers find NUPI-led research on the EU’s crisis response "exceptional"! 

  • Security policy
  • Europe
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Conflict
  • International organizations
NUPI-forskere vant frem i knallhard konkurranse om prosjektfinansiering fra EU. F.v.: Direktør Ulf Sverdrup, administrasjonssjef Silje Skøien, prosjektleder Morten Bøås, seniorforsker Pernille Rieker og seniorforsker Kari Osland.
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

Norge må tenke nytt i Persiabukta

(In norwegian only) I stedet for å si ja til å bidra militært i Persiabukta, er det mulig å tenke seg en mye mer proaktiv og klok norsk linje. Sommertid er glemselstid. Verden går tilsynelatende i sine vante spor. Og når vi endelig vender tilbake til kontorpulten, synes beste måte å takle jobbens utfordringer på å gjøre som vi pleier. Det bør ikke gjelde for norsk utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk. For der står vi ved et veiskille, og i løpet av sommeren har det dukket opp en ny prøvestein for Norge.

  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • NATO
  • Foreign policy
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Defence
  • Security policy
  • NATO
  • Foreign policy
  • The Middle East and North Africa
Publications
Publications
Chapter

Konflikt, ustabilitet og migranter: "post-Gaddafi blues" i Sahel

(In norwegian only) Hvilke lærdommer kan vi trekke av bombingen av Libya i 2011? Var krigføringen i tråd med krigens folkerett? Brøt norske myndigheter grunnloven i forbindelse med krigsdeltagelsen? Levde media opp til sitt samfunnsoppdrag så lenge krigføringen i Libya pågikk? Ble det norske folk holdt for narr om de egentlige årsakene til krigen? Og hva ble konsekvensene av Libya-krigen for nasjonen Libya, regionen og verdenssamfunnet? Libya: Krigens uutholdelige letthet setter et kritisk søkelys på Norges deltagelse i den Nato-ledete operasjonen i Libya. Blant forfatterne finner vi folkerettsjurister, historikere, militære, statsvitere og professorer i journalistikk og fredsforskning. Et felles utgangspunkt for alle bidragsyterne er spørsmålet om hva norske politikere, militære og det norske folk kan og bør lære av Norges første krig i Afrika.

  • Defence
  • NATO
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Conflict
  • Defence
  • NATO
  • The Middle East and North Africa
  • Conflict
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