På tide å tenke nytt om Iran
(Available in Norwegian only): Det overordnede målet for USAs såkalte "maximum pressure"-strategi har vært å fremforhandle en bedre atomavtale med Iran, samt å svekke både Teherans innflytelse i Midtøsten og ayatollah Khameneis grep om makten. Men har strategien vært vellykket i å oppnå dette?
The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical gains and losses after energy transition
This article presents the GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses that 156 countries may experience after a full-scale transition to renewable energy. The following indicators are considered for inclusion in the index: fossil fuel production, fossil fuel reserves, renewable energy resources, governance, and conflict. Some of these represent potential gains; some represent losses; and some the capacity of countries to handle changes in geopolitical strength. Five alternative versions of the index are developed to work out the optimal design. First, the energy resource indicators are combined with equal weights to create two simple versions of the index. Next, governance and conflict indicators are included to create three more complex versions of the index. The index provides useful pointers for strategic energy and foreign policy choices: geopolitical power will be more evenly distributed after an energy transition; Iceland will gain most; Russia may be one of the main holders of stranded geopolitical assets; China and the USA will lose more geopolitically than foreseen by other analyses. The index also indicates a lack of emphasis in parts of the literature on space for renewable energy infrastructure and on domestically sourced coal for the current strength of countries such as China and the United States.
Stater og transnasjonale motstandsnettverk: Irans mobilisering av irakiske sjiamilitser etter 1979
The Islamic Republic of Iran has been building a transnational network of Shi’a militias since 1979, commonly referred to as its asymmetric warfare capability and ‘strategic depth’. While it is a known fact that Iran has mobilised Shi’a militias in other countries to strengthen its regional position, how they have done it has not received much scholarly attention. The objective of this paper is to explain this phenomenon by examining how Iran has mobilised Iraqi Shi’a militias since 1979. The selected cases are the mobilisation processes of three most prominent Shi’a militias in Iraq today: Badr Organisation, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and Kata’ib Hizbullah. Although variation exists between them, they are all cases of Iran’s network of armed resistance groups, which have allowed it to engage in covert or indirect conflict intervention in the Middle East. To logically connect the empirical data with the study’s research question, I have used a case study research design, with process tracing and the semi-structured interview as methods for data collection. Furthermore, the empirical analysis has been guided by a theoretical framework that has attempted to build a bridge between the existing literatures on state-militia dynamics and contentious politics.
David Petraeus visits NUPI
NUPI had the pleasure of hosting David H. Petraeus on 30. September. The four-star General (Ret) and former director of CIA shared his insights and prognosis for the geopolitical landscape ahead at the event entitled “Global Security Threats and Western Responses”.
Migration and Development: Sharing knowledge between Norway and Poland (MiDeShare)
The aim of this project is to improve our understanding of the relationship between migration and development in order to suggest more effective policies for addressing root causes of migration in wea...
New project examines root causes of migration in Africa and the Middle East
What is the relationship between migration and development?
Top marks for NUPI’s EU project
Reviewers find NUPI-led research on the EU’s crisis response "exceptional"!
Norge må tenke nytt i Persiabukta
(In norwegian only) I stedet for å si ja til å bidra militært i Persiabukta, er det mulig å tenke seg en mye mer proaktiv og klok norsk linje. Sommertid er glemselstid. Verden går tilsynelatende i sine vante spor. Og når vi endelig vender tilbake til kontorpulten, synes beste måte å takle jobbens utfordringer på å gjøre som vi pleier. Det bør ikke gjelde for norsk utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitikk. For der står vi ved et veiskille, og i løpet av sommeren har det dukket opp en ny prøvestein for Norge.
Konflikt, ustabilitet og migranter: "post-Gaddafi blues" i Sahel
(In norwegian only) Hvilke lærdommer kan vi trekke av bombingen av Libya i 2011? Var krigføringen i tråd med krigens folkerett? Brøt norske myndigheter grunnloven i forbindelse med krigsdeltagelsen? Levde media opp til sitt samfunnsoppdrag så lenge krigføringen i Libya pågikk? Ble det norske folk holdt for narr om de egentlige årsakene til krigen? Og hva ble konsekvensene av Libya-krigen for nasjonen Libya, regionen og verdenssamfunnet? Libya: Krigens uutholdelige letthet setter et kritisk søkelys på Norges deltagelse i den Nato-ledete operasjonen i Libya. Blant forfatterne finner vi folkerettsjurister, historikere, militære, statsvitere og professorer i journalistikk og fredsforskning. Et felles utgangspunkt for alle bidragsyterne er spørsmålet om hva norske politikere, militære og det norske folk kan og bør lære av Norges første krig i Afrika.
Turkish Foreign Minister visited NUPI
Turkey's Foreign Minister H.E. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu visited NUPI on Friday August 30th.