Conventional Counterforce Dilemmas: South Korea's Deterrence Strategy and Stability on the Korean Peninsula
In response to North Korea's nuclear weapons program, South Korea is quietly pursuing an independent conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy. This strategy is unique. Few, if any, nonnuclear states have sought to rely on advanced conventional capabilities to deter a nuclear-armed adversary. Why is South Korea pursuing a conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy, and what could its impact be on strategic stability on the Korean Peninsula? South Korea's approach should be understood as both a short- and long-term hedge against U.S. abandonment. Its deterrent effect, no matter how uncertain, acts as a short-term stopgap if the United States abandons South Korea. Over the long term, capabilities such as advanced ballistic and cruise missiles bolster South Korea's nuclear latency. At the same time, we highlight that the strategy poses numerous technological and operational difficulties and has negative implications for arms race and crisis stability. Given South Korea's approach and North Korea's response, disarmament efforts focused purely on the bilateral U.S.–North Korea relationship will not succeed. Rather, any agreement will now need to address the growing gap in the conventional balance of forces on the Korean Peninsula.
The Nordic shift: China’s uphill battle for public approval in northern Europe
A recent survey shows that even the champions of free trade in Europe’s high north are reassessing their approach to Chinese investment.
Climate, Peace and Security and the UN Security Council
The Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) are collaborating on a climate, peace and security project that...
The Belt and Road Initiative and New Regionalism
While framed by China as an inclusive platform of multilateral cooperation, The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been met with mixed perceptions in Europe. Join this webinar to learn more about the nature, dynamics and influence of the BRI.
The Palgrave Handbook of EU Crises
The Palgrave Handbook of EU crises comprehensively explores the European Union’s institutional and policy responses to crises across policy domains and institutions – including the Euro crisis, Brexit, the Ukraine crisis and other foreign policy crises, the migration crisis, the legitimacy crisis and the global health crisis resulting from Covid-19. It contributes to our understanding of how crises affect institutional change and continuity, decision-making behavior and processes, and public policy making. If offers a systematic discussion of how the existing repertoire of theories understand crises and how well they capture times of crises and events of disintegration. More generally, the handbook looks at how public organizations cope with crises, and thus probes how sustainable and resilient public organizations are in times of crisis and unrest.
Forventer økt spenning i norske nærområder under Biden
Short comments on Russian approach and expectations in connection with trasnfer of power from Donald Trump to Joe biden as the US 46th president.
Training for Peace 2020 - 2025 (TfP)
In the phase (2020-2025) the TfP will strengthen its partnership and collaboration with the African Union, by providing applied research, policy support and capacity-building. ...
Digitalization, growth and international trade
ICTs, growth, income inequalities and international trade are on the agenda when UiO and NUPI invites to webinar the 28th of january.
Russian energy and grand strategy
This Policy Brief presents the most recent data on the performance of the Russian energy sector and discusses its strategic importance in the current setting.
Navigating de facto statehood: trade, trust, and agency in Abkhazia's external economic relations
What opportunities and trade-offs do de facto states encounter in developing economic ties with the outside world? This article explores the complex relationship between trade and trust in the context of contested statehood. Most de facto states are heavily dependent on an external patron for economic aid and investment. However, we challenge the widespread assumption that de facto states are merely hapless pawns in the power-play of their patrons. Such an approach fails to capture the conflict dynamics involved. Drawing on a case study of Abkhazia, we explore how this de facto state navigates between its "patron" Russia, its "parent state" Georgia, and the EU. The conflict transformation literature has highlighted the interrelationship between trust and trade – but how does this unfold in the context of continued nonrecognition and contested statehood? Does trade serve to facilitate trust and hence prospects for conflict transformation? With Abkhazia, we find scant correlation between trust and trade: in the absence of formal recognition, trade does not necessarily facilitate trust. However, the interrelationship between trade, trust, and recognition proves more complex than expected: we find less trust in the patron and more trade with the parent than might have been anticipated.