Resisting Radicalization: Exploring the Nonoccurrence of Violent Extremism
Precarious living conditions across the Balkans, the Middle East, and North Africa create fertile ground for radical ideas. Yet, despite genuine grievances and legitimate grounds for anger, most people living in these regions are not radicalized and do not embrace ideas that lead to acts of violent extremism. Which raises the question ... why? To answer this question, the authors of Resisting Radicalization investigate the nonoccurrence of violent extremism in what they term enabling environments. Their work, the result of a multiyear international project, has critical implications for the future of P/CVE (Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism) programs. This book is a result of the EU Horizon 2020 project PREVEX (Preventing Violent Extremism in the Balkans and the MENA: Strengthening Resilience in Enabling Environments). Project number: 870724
Moral- og realpolitikk i en ny verden
The scenes from the White House on Saturday unsettled even the most seasoned analysts. The anticipated signing of the mineral agreement—which was expected to provide Ukraine with an indirect American security guarantee that the country desperately needs—did not take place. Instead, the public witnessed an open dispute between President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and President Volodymyr Zelensky. The deal that may now emerge in the aftermath of these events is unlikely to be the one Ukraine had hoped for. Subsequent commentary on social media has largely focused on identifying who initiated the quarrel. These responses have tended to fall into two polarized camps, each assigning clear blame to one side—either Zelensky or Trump and Vance
Hva nå?
It is time for Norway to develop a foreign policy for security—one grounded in issues rather than party politics, writes Julie Wilhelmsen in this op-ed. This is not an argument for withdrawing Norway from NATO or breaking ties with the United States, but rather an attempt to initiate a debate on how to create greater room for action in a policy area that Norway must independently formulate. It is an invitation to engage in rational and knowledge-based reasoning—something we, as “like-minded” actors, should pursue to find the best solutions in a time when global challenges are growing ever more complex and there is a notable absence of clear leadership anywhere in the world. It is, of course, uncertain whether Norwegian leaders will have any leverage in the White House when the time comes. Moreover, should any of the proposals I have outlined be pursued, they will undoubtedly generate significant dissonance among domestic audiences after years of rhetoric suggesting that “weapons are the path to peace”—an approach that has at times appeared to serve as Norway’s new moral compass. Yet, a strategy that combines deterrence with reassurance in security policy, and that promotes diplomacy in international affairs, is both needed globally and, from a historical perspective, a well-established Norwegian position. Such an approach could make Norway more secure and enhance the credibility of Norwegian foreign policymakers.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan
South Sudan is one of the least peaceful countries in the world and one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have led to both drought and flooding, impacting river flows and the groundwater availability and water quality for a population highly reliant on agriculture and pastoralism. Decades of violent conflict have also eroded the population’s coping capacities. Weak governance and the lack of infrastructure further undermine the capacity of state and social institutions to adapt to climate change. Beyond the existing tensions between armed groups in South Sudan, the spillover effects of the war in Sudan are exacerbating a complex and persistent humanitarian crisis.
Russia’s strategic interest in the Arctic: a comparative perspective
The main objective of this brief study is to examine what we define as ‘Russia’s strategic interest in the Arctic’ from a comparative perspective in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. There are different ways of mapping a country’s strategic interest in an issue. This research paper adopts a quantitative approach to measuring the level of strategic interest that official Russia has expressed in the Arctic and compares this interest in the Arctic with interest in the Barents Sea, Baltic Sea and Black Sea regions. Measuring interest comparatively is done by mapping how much attention is being given to these four regions by various Russian actors who shape or examine Russian policies in their key communication channels. Due to the format of this study, it does not explore what drives this interest, focusing only on a quantitative examination of the number of references to the regions in question in the chosen set of information channels.
From combatants and war supporters to peacemakers? Women’s participation in political violence and political transitions (Gendered Transitions)
In the “Gendered Transitions”-project, the researchers will study how women’s participation in political violence translates into their participation in peace processes. ...
Explaining changes in women’s representation in peace processes: The adoption of a gender quota in the Agreement Monitoring Committee in Mali
How can we explain changes in women’s representation in peace processes? Based on an analysis of interviews with key actors in the peace process and documents, this article examines the events, factors and actors that contributed to the introduction of a gender quota in the Malian peace process (2015-2023). After a peace agreement was signed in 2015 between the Malian government and two rebel groups, several mechanisms and committees were established to contribute to its implementation. An Agreement Monitoring Committee was also established, where representatives of the parties were to meet regularly to make decisions related to the overall implementation of the agreement. Until November 2020, the parties’ delegates to this committee consisted exclusively of men. Since the outbreak of conflict in 2012, through ceasefire negotiations, peace negotiations, and the implementation of the peace agreement, Malian women’s groups have been fighting for increased participation. But such demands were usually met with resistance from the parties to the peace process. This changed in 2020, however, when the same parties adopted a 30% gender quota in the monitoring committee. The article therefore addresses a central issue surrounding women's participation in peace processes: How can important actors be persuaded to change their minds, and move from opposing women's participation to adopting a 30% gender quota? The analysis finds that changes in women's representation are facilitated by critical actors who initiate or stimulate others to support and/or promote women-friendly reforms. Furthermore, two enabling conditions must be present: On the one hand, international gender equality norms, together with international pressure to promote these norms; and on the other hand, women’s mobilization, including women’s activists’ use of international frameworks to advocate for gender-based reforms. The analysis shows how these enabling conditions were present in the Malian case. Furthermore, the article analyses and shows how critical actors who supported the peace process contributed to “political accumulation”, that is, the gradual building of political recognition for the issue of women’s inclusion over time. This happened through a combination of increases in the number of actors and initiatives supporting and promoting women’s inclusion and the repeated exposure and learning among the parties and other key actors. Critical actors also collaborated with and supported Malian women’s organizations and women leaders engaged in activism for women’s increased representation in the peace process. Additionally, critical actors actively worked to remove counter-arguments and obstacles – for example, through funding and capacity-building. This contributed to a more enabling environment in which the benefits of supporting the gender quota began to outweigh the costs of opposing it. The article concludes that the combined efforts of critical actors, which occurred in a context of international gender equality norms and women’s mobilization, contributed to changes in the behaviour of key actors and made possible the adoption of a gender quota in the monitoring committee.
Failed International Interventions and the Making of New Social Contracts in Mali
Mali's 2020 coup brought Colonel Assimi Goïta to power. Despite security crises and economic struggles, Goïta enjoys strong public support, substantially exceeding that enjoyed by the ousted, democratically elected leader. In exploring this paradox, this article argues that Goïta has crafted a new social contract based not on public services but on a strongman narrative, portraying himself as Mali's defender. The regime has leveraged dissatisfaction with international interventions to frame Goïta as an `exceptional man' in `exceptional times', in ways that resonate with Malian myths and traditions. This has important ramifications for debates about African agencies and international interventions.