The Evolution of US Military Presence on NATO’s Eastern Flank: Reassuring Allies, Deterring Russia, and Managing Escalation
Concurrent with increasing Russian revanchism and aggression from 2014, the US approach to military presence on NATO’s Eastern flank has evolved. Overall, the development could be perceived as change in rationale from reassurance of allies to deterrence of Russia by punishment and, in recent years, deterrence by denial. This has resulted in altered structures for presence, resulting in changes of dispositions on the ground that has contributed to increasing the credibility of NATO’s deterrence doctrine. The rhetorical offensiveness of U.S. strategic communication has also become more powerful and exercise activity scaled up. This indicates a change in US perception of escalating activity. There is persistent bipartisan agreement on the continuation of US deep-engagement in Europe, with similar perceptions in the US military-leadership. This underpins the theory of an “institutionalized practice” of military presence and Great Power Persistence. The enhanced credibility of US-NATO deterrence on the Eastern flank lowers the likelihood of fait accompli-scenarios. This has security implications for countries located elsewhere that Russia may wish to challenge, both conventionally and through Hybrid means.
NATO: A historical moment in the Nordic-Baltic region
Finland’s membership in NATO on April 4th 2023 represent a watershed moment in Baltic and Nordic history. By entering into a formal military alliance with its neighbours, Finland will be part of a united front of deterrence against Russia, reaching from the High North to the Black Sea. The Baltic countries, which always have felt vulnerable and exposed given their geopolitical location, now have a new and capable ally next door. But what are the concrete implications for Nordic-Baltic security and defence? This is the key question discussed in this article.
Militærmaktens plass etter Ukraina
(This op-ed is in Norwegian only): Et nytt Europa som formes etter Ukrainas seier, krever politisk mot og vilje hos europeiske ledere – samt betydelig militærmakt, skriver Karsten Friis.
Africa in a changing global order: G20 membership and elusive peace in Somalia and Sudan
How can we understand the African Union’s evolving position in a changing global order from its role in the G20 and its peace initiatives in Somal...
Evolving Linkages Between Indo-Pacific and European Security: Challenges and Their Dynamics
NUPI is proud to host Aiko Takahara, Distinguished Visiting Professor, Tokyo Woman’s Christian University, Senior Adjunct Fellow of the Japan Institute of International Affairs, and Distinguished Research Fellow of the Japan Forum on International Relations.
Evolving Linkages Between Indo-Pacific and European Security: Challenges and Their Dynamics
NUPI is proud to host Aiko Takahara, Distinguished Visiting Professor, Tokyo Woman’s Christian University, Senior Adjunct Fellow of the Japan Institute of International Affairs, and Distinguished Research Fellow of the Japan Forum on International Relations.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Libya
Libya is exposed to a number of climate hazards. In September 2023, Storm Daniel caused severe rainfall and floods, triggering the collapse of two ageing dams in eastern Libya. This left a trail of destruction in the city of Derna and its surrounding areas. Libya is also one of the driest and most water-stressed countries in the world; it is prone to drought and less than two per cent of the country receives enough rain to sustain agriculture. Climate stressors are in turn aggravated by political turmoil, a divided government, protracted conflict and the presence of a plethora of armed groups. These factors, which have contributed to mismanagement, corruption and a lack of good governance, affect efforts to address climate-related risks, including those that may influence peace and security dynamics.