Fiche technique sur le climat, la paix et la sécurité au Sahel
La région du Sahel est fortement exposée au changement climatique. Toutefois, en raison de facteurs relevant des contextes national et local, ce dernier ura des impacts différenciés dans la région. Les températures deviendront progressivement plus élevées dans la région et certaines zones connaîtront es niveaux de précipitations accrus, mais irréguliers. Dans l’immédiat, ces tendances pourraient se traduire par des saisons irrégulières, des périodes de écheresse et des inondations. L’interaction avec des facteurs d’ordre social, économique et politique pourrait exacerber les vulnérabilités existantes et accroître les risques de conflits violents: • Les changements dans les régimes pluviométriques et les tendances saisonnières peuvent parfois attiser et exacerber des conflits violents dont l’enjeu st l’accès à des ressources limitées ou inégalement réparties. Les femmes et les filles sont particulièrement vulnérables. Partout au Sahel, le changement climatique peut accentuer le risque d’affrontements entre éleveurs et agriculteurs autour de l’accès à l’eau et aux pâturages. • Les catastrophes d’apparition soudaine et le changement climatique à long terme peuvent forcer des populations à se déplacer de manière temporaire ou permanente et parfois à rejoindre des personnes déplacées par des conflits armés. La migration est une importante stratégie d’adaptation qui peut toutefois entraîner des conflits entre communautés d’accueil et communautés de migrants. • Les catastrophes et le changement climatique entraînent une érosion de la résilience, aggravant ainsi la vulnérabilité des communautés aux prédations de groupes armés et aux manipulations opérées par les élites. Certains groupes armés recrutent dans des communautés dont les moyens de subsistance sont affectés par des facteurs comme le changement climatique. Par ailleurs, les milices locales peuvent aggraver les conflits entre agriculteurs et éleveurs.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet Mali
Mali is characterised by short-term climate variability, and is vulnerable to long-term climate change due to high exposure to the adverse effects of climate change, but also high population growth, diminished resilience and multiple violent conflicts. Mali is forecast to become hotter with more erratic rainfall, impacting seasonal regularity and increasing the risk of droughts and floods. Moreover, conflict, political instability and weak government institutions undermine effective adaptation to climate change.
Enhancing the Effectiveness of the G5 Sahel Force by Strengthening Strategic Coherence and International Support
At the UN Security Council and in other forums in Africa and Europe diplomats are considering how to increase international support to the G5 Sahel Force. The support is aimed at filling critical gaps that have hindered the mobility and operational tempo of the G5 Sahel Force. The overall goal is to enhance its operational capacity and effectiveness in an effort to restore stability in the Sahel. Despite the presence of the UN Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), the Group of Five Sahel (G5 Sahel) Force, as well as French-led and European Union missions, the security situation in the Sahel has significantly deteriorated over the last few years. Drawing on lessons identified from the support provided by the UN to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), and a wide number of experiences with voluntary funded trust funds in other mission support set¬tings, we discuss a few political, financial, doctrinal, human rights and operational considerations. We find that a UN support office funded from assessed contributions, complimented with voluntary contribu¬tions, appear to be the only solution for reliable and predictable support to those core needs of the G5 Sahel Force that cannot be met by the G5 Sahel countries themselves, or via bilateral support to those countries.
Reviewing Jihadist Governance in the Sahel
The ways in which jihadist insurgents in the Sahel govern is rarely considered in the academic literature. They have often been portrayed as ‘Islamic terrorists’, who achieve their objectives by using brutal force against the civilian population and who finance their activities through criminal networks and activities. However, scattered empirical evidence reveals a different picture. Jihadist insurgents, like other insurgent groups, often use a variety of strategies to rule territory and populations. The scale, character and form of how such groups govern differs not only between countries but also at the sub-national level within the same group. Nevertheless, until recently jihadist insurgent governance in Africa and particularly the Sahel region has largely been overlooked. This synthesis reviews the existing literature on jihadist governance in West Africa, with a particular emphasis on the understudied region of the Sahel. The review is organised as follows: first, we clarify key concepts and provide definitions. Second, we provide a brief overview of Islam and politics in the Sahel, contextualising the rise of Salafist-jihadism as well as historical cases of jihadist governance. Third, we provide a brief overview of the literature and synthesise the existing research on jihadist insurgent governance in the Sahel. Fourth, we examine some key cases of jihadist governance in northern Mali, Nigeria and the Liptako-Gourma region straddling Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Finally, we conclude by summarising our findings, discussing the implications for the study of civil war and insurgency and consider avenues for future research.
The impact of climate change on Africa’s peace and security
The gradual rise in global temperatures, irregular rainfall and floods have indirect, complex and coherent implications for peace and security. On March 9 2021, the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council met at state level to discuss these challenges. The Peace and Security Council presented various recommendations concerning climate and security. This op-ed is based on the communique published after the meeting and presents opportunities for how the African Union, together with regional economic communities/regional mechanisms, member states and others, can work together to strengthen efforts surrounding climate and security challenges.
The Impact of Climate Change on Peace and Security in Somalia: Implications for AMISOM
The February 2021 mandate renewal for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is an opportunity to review what we know about climate change and security in Somalia, and to consider what governments and multilateral organisations can do to improve the way they manage climate related security risks. Research finds no direct causal relationship between climate and conflict but has identified multiple pathways through which climate-related change interacts with political, social, and environmental stresses to compound existing vulnerabilities and tensions. These factors combined can undermine development gains, impact the dynamics of ongoing violence and disrupt fragile peace processes. Additional pressures, such as COVID-19, compound the risk and makes a country like Somalia even more vulnerable to shocks and setbacks, as the recent political crisis shows.