Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somaila*
Somalia continues to grapple with increasingly severe and frequent climate shocks that impede people’s livelihoods, worsen the existing humanitarian crisis and influence local conflict dynamics over access to natural resources. In November 2025, after four consecutive failed rainy seasons had affected millions of people, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) declared a national drought emergency. Strong El Niño conditions are forecast to bring wetter-than-usual conditions during the October–December 2026 deyr rainy season, with a high risk of floods in central and southern Somalia. Some communities experience successive periods of drought and flooding without sufficient time to recover between shocks. These adverse effects of climate change are interacting with a volatile security situation, influenced by political competition and fragmentation, as well as continued clashes with al-Shabab, which contribute to deepening an already dire humanitarian crisis.
Arctic Ocean 2050
The new 10-year research program Polhavet 2050 – Arctic Ocean 2050 unites 18 Norwegian research institutions in an unparallelled effort to address how the Arctic Ocean will change in t...
From armed conflict to climate risk
Development assistance to Afghanistan, including over USD 800 million in climate financing, was suspended in 2021. This seminar asks what can be done, and which structures on the ground can carry the work.
Polhavet Arctic Ocean 2050: Science Plan
Polhavet / Arctic Ocean 2050 unites Norwegian and international scientific expertise in a 10-year programme to understand the present and guide the future of the Arctic Ocean . Through interdisciplinary research and innovation and international collaboration , the programme will deliver knowledge and tools for sustainable use, conservation, and geopolitical resilience in a changing Arctic. This Science Plan was written by the Polhavet / Arctic Ocean 2050 working group established by the 18 partner institutions. Co-author from NUPI is Elana Wilson Rowe. Other authors are: A., Årthun, M., Dodd, P., Jentoft, S., Renaud, P., Müller, M., Dankel, D., Bertino, L., Bluhm, B., De Lucia, V., Ellingsen, K., Husum, K., Ingvaldsen, R., Jensen, Ø., Jørgensen, L. L., Jørgensen, S. L., Langehaug, H ., Mooney, P., Østhagen, A., Øverjordet, I. B., Oye, V., Pedersen, M. P., Skodvin, K. E., Søreide, J. E., Sørensen, A., Storelvmo, T., Thorsnes, T., Tjiputra, J., Wilson Rowe, E. & Yoccoz, N.
Polhavet Arctic Ocean 2050: Implementation Plan (2026 -2028)
Polhavet / Arctic Ocean 2050 unites Norwegian and international scientific expertise in a 10-year programme to understand the present and guide the future of the Arctic Ocean. Through interdisciplinary research and innovation and international collaboration, the program me will deliver knowledge and tools for sustainable use, conservation, and geopolitical resilience in a changing Arctic. This Implementation Plan covers the period 2026 -2028 and details the specific tasks the 18 partner organizations in the Norwegian Consortium plans to work on in this period. Co-author from NUPI is Elana Wilson Rowe. Other authors are: A., Årthun, M., Dodd, P., Jentoft, S., Renaud, P., Müller, M., Dankel, D., Bertino, L., Bluhm, B., De Lucia, V., Ellingsen, K., Husum, K., Ingvaldsen, R., Jensen, Ø., Jørgensen, L. L., Jørgensen, S. L., Langehaug, H ., Mooney, P., Østhagen, A., Øverjordet, I. B., Oye, V., Pedersen, M. P., Skodvin, K. E., Søreide, J. E., Sørensen, A., Storelvmo, T., Thorsnes, T., Tjiputra, J., Wilson Rowe, E. & Yoccoz, N.
Energy
Energy is not a political science concept. It originates in physics and describes “a fundamental entity of nature,” best understood as “the capacity for doing work.” Furthermore, as the Encyclopaedia Britannica notes, it “may exist in potential, kinetic, thermal, electrical, chemical, nuclear, or other forms,” to which Merriam-Webster dictionary adds that it can be “transferred between parts of a system in the production of physical change within the system.” At the same time, energy is a frequent object of political discussions, due to the fundamental role it plays in modern societies. Energy generates welfare through ceding human physical labor to work done by machines, from home appliances to steelworks; it provides the physical comfort of adequately heated or cooled surroundings; it makes possible the mobility achieved through modern means of transportation. All of these rely on the conversion of energy resources into energy services. Socioeconomic development is correlated with increasingly higher energy consumption (Destek & Sarkodie, 2019). The fundamental and omnipresent nature of energy and its importance for sustaining modern livelihoods are expressed with the often-used metaphor of the “lifeblood of society.” This has political consequences, as access to energy services at a certain level and affordable price is the foundation of social contracts, leading to popular discontent when these are not provided.
Fashionably or fatally late? exploring NDC procrastination in the UNFCCC
The current global climate change mitigation regime established by the Paris Agreement rests on a “pledge-and-review“ mechanism with the cyclical submission of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to progressively increase climate ambition. Following the 2023 collective review, the so-called Global Stocktake (GST), Parties were required to submit updated NDCs by February 2025. Yet compliance has been strikingly low: only 16 of 198 Parties met the deadline, and even after an extended September cutoff, just 64 submissions were recorded, covering roughly 30% of global emissions. We examine the phenomenon of NDC procrastination – the widespread delay in meeting procedural obligations – and its implications for the climate regime. Drawing on 23 country case studies, compliance reports, and fieldwork at the climate summit in Bonn, we identify four clusters of factors behind delayed submissions. Financial and institutional capacity challenges include resource constraints, reliance on external technical assistance, and complex whole-of-government coordination requirements. Technical and data-related challenges stem from gaps in emissions inventories, modelling expertise, and recalibration needs when baselines shift. Political and governance challenges range from domestic uncertainty (elections, coalition changes) to geopolitical shocks, armed conflict, and instances of ‘green backlash,’ where governments actively obstruct climate policy. Finally, procedural and strategic dynamics encourage states to delay pledges for performative or tactical reasons. While these factors can explain why many parties were late with their submissions, the question of what NDC procrastination means for the future of global climate action is more complex. While NDCs are visibly treated more seriously by many, and considerable resources are channeled into the work on pledges, the scale of non-compliance underscores the fragility of procedural norms. Furthermore, the post-GST round of delayed pledges highlights the tension between detailed, economy-wide pledges aligned with domestic policies and ratcheting up mitigation ambition at a pace needed to tackle dangerous climate change.