Are the EU's neighbors ready for membership?

This episode shifts the focus from why enlargement has returned to the top of Europe’s agenda to how enlargement actually works. Host Jessica Hendrick (ECFR communications officer) drops into the thick of the debate with experts Tiago Antunes (ECFR Senior Policy Fellow), Engjellushe Morina (ECFR Senior Policy Fellow), and Leo Litra (ECFR Visiting Fellow) to dissect the EU Commission’s 2025 Enlargement Package.

The Neighborhood podcast series is part of the NUPI-led Re-Engage project. The series is produced by ECFR, and co-published by ECFR and NUPI. Listen to episode 2: The EU's Enlargement Reality Check here:

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The annual report card and geopolitical progress

The Enlargement Package serves as the EU’s annual assessment on the progress each candidate country has made toward accession. The package assesses everything from judicial reform to foreign policy alignment. This technical evaluation sets the stage for the political decisions made by the Council, such as granting candidate status, or opening and closing negotiation chapters and clusters.

«There are two frontrunners, Montenegro and Albania. We know that Ukraine and Moldova are doing very well in their reform pace, and they are not going ahead only because of political reasons,» explains Tiago Antunes in the episode.

Serbia and Georgia are stalled or backsliding. Georgia is noted to be a «candidate in name only» due to a serious backsliding of rule of law and democratic institutions. This demonstrates that enlargement remains a merits-based process.

EU’s internal struggle: Vetoes and missing homework

While candidate countries are making strides on difficult reforms, particularly in the fundamental areas like rule of law and democratic institutions, the process is complicated by the EU’s own internal struggles.

• The Veto Problem: Every single decision in the Council requires unanimity, giving immense veto power to individual member states, such as Hungary. This political wrangling complicates the process even when decisions are technically ready.
• Missing Policy Reviews: A key point of surprise is what is not in the package: the Commission has not delivered pre-enlargement policy reviews. These internal reforms are necessary to prepare the EU to transition from 27 to potentially 30+ member states. The absence of this "homework" means the internal reform process is "dragging".

Are tangible benefits reaching citizens?

The package attempts to match reform delivery with tangible rewards, such as cheaper roaming, access to SEPA banking services, and substantial growth plans. The goal is to allow citizens in candidate countries to feel the gains of gradual integration.

• Also read: Completing the Union

However, the experts note that these benefits are not yet fully realized on the ground. For example, despite SEPA integration, high bank fees still apply to ordinary citizens for transfers in places like Albania. This absence of visible results, particularly in the Balkans where the process has dragged on for many years, can lead to a "deep level of frustration" and disbelief among citizens.

The geopolitical necessity

The discussion emphasizes that enlargement is a success story historically. Furthermore, security is now a major benefit of enlargement, especially concerning countries like Ukraine. Avoiding enlargement would be highly costly, leaving the EU with an unstable neighborhood.

Listen to the full episode to learn more about:

• Why Montenegro received such a positive report despite internal criticisms regarding political leadership.
• How public support (56% of EU citizens support enlargement) is crucial for political leaders to take "bold decisions".
• The high cost of non-enlargement and the risk of political instability spreading wider in the neighborhood.

This episode is a critical dive into the bureaucratic complexities, the geopolitical urgency, and the imperative for popular belief and engagement for enlargement to succeed.