Mali is characterised by short-term climate variability, and is vulnerable to long-term climate change due to high exposure to the adverse effects of climate change, but also high population growth, diminished resilience and multiple violent conflicts. Mali is forecast to become hotter with more erratic rainfall, impacting seasonal regularity and increasing the risk of droughts and floods. Moreover, conflict, political instability and weak government institutions undermine effective adaptation to climate change.
- Climate change may impact seasonal regularity and jeopardise natural resource-based livelihoods. Livelihood insecurity can interact with political and economic factors to increase the risk of conflicts over natural resource access and use
- Conflict, agricultural development and changing environmental conditions have affected migratory livestock routes, pushing herders into areas where natural resources are under pressure or shared use is not well defined. This can increase the risk of conflict with other herders and farmers.
- Evolving conflict dynamics have strengthened the linkage between local resource disputes, ethnic/religious community conflicts and civil war. Local conflicts are becoming more violent, complex and harder to resolve.
- Weak governance and agricultural policies have created social, economic and political inequalities that feed conflicts. The same factors undermine community resilience to climate change, particularly among marginalised groups.
The project is jointly undertaken by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) with funding from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and aims to generate reliable, relevant, timely and actionable information and analysis on climate-related peace and security risks for selected countries and regions on the UN Security Council agenda. Its main product is a series of fact sheets on countries on the agenda of the Security Council.
PS! A French version will be released early June 2021.