Research project
Water and Conflict in Central Asia
The critical issue of water scarcity in Central Asia is gaining momentum and resonates across region's agriculture, power generation, and conflict dynamics. Growing demand for food and water amplify interstate tensions over the region's limited water resources. There are several water hotspots for tensions over water in Central Asia: Qosh Tepa Canal built by Afghanistan; Rogundam; Aral Sea / Karakalpakstan; water sharing in the Ferghana Valley; subsiding sea level of the Caspian. These challenges are exacerbated by population growth, climate change, poor resource management, unilateral water strategies of riparian states, and the region's historical water-related tensions. In this project we will pay particular attention to the Qosh Tepa Canal project, due to its large conflict potential.
The project is funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and runs from January 2024 until the end of February 2025.
MFA of Norway
Project Manager
Participants
Articles
New publications
Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa irrigation project: Implications for transboundary water management in Central Asia
Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa irrigation project could exacerbate water scarcity and destabilize Central Asia. To ensure sustainable resource management and avert potential conflict, a multilateral water-sharing agreement must be negotiated among the states involved with mediation by the international community.
Water and conflict in Central Asia
Temperatures in Central Asia are rising faster than the world average, reducing water availability, increasing food security, and causing more frequent natural disasters. The Aral Sea Basin’s arid climate makes it particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Among the Central Asian countries, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are the most vulnerable to water stress. Inter-state disputes over water became more frequent during 2014-2024, including some violent conflicts. Water-related protests in Central Asia are becoming more frequent relative to other types of protest. Joint action is required to increase the region’s water storage capacity, since accelerated glacier melt may destabilize the seasonal runoff.