Germany’s security and defence policies after the Zeitenwende: New government, new direction?
Summary:
The German Zeitenwende (turning point of history), introduced in 2022, still has a long way to go when it comes to solving the structural problems that have long beset Germany’s security and defence policies. Moreover, it continues to face considerable domestic opposition. Even so, it remains an important ongoing process, signalling a positive way forward.
Germany’s overall foreign, security and defence policy line – which features NATO and the EU as cornerstones – is unlikely to change significantly in the wake of the new conservative–social democratic government taking power. Nonetheless, the new administration will have to show more determination and political will if it is to get things done and assume greater responsibility for Germany’s and Europe’s security.
In the shorter term, the German government has secured more funding for security and defence due to the release of the constitutional debt brake. In the medium and long term, however, a sound combination of creating debt and making room in the normal budget for more defence spending (which may also involve tax increases) will be required. At the same time, care must be taken to make more effective and efficient use of the available funds, rather than simply spending ever greater quantities. It would be wise to remain cautious and realistic about Germany’s political and military leadership capabilities in the short term, as the country has a lot of catching up to do in the first instance.
Nonetheless, while Germany cannot lead alone in all domains and geographical areas, it can lead by example through continuing along the path it has embarked on. Successful leadership requires effective burden-sharing, meaning that several countries must be willing (whether singularly or jointly) to take the lead on particular issues or in specific geographical areas. Ideally, leadership should be conducted by small(er) groups of likeminded countries, including combinations of bigger and smaller states where appropriate. The close Norwegian–German security and defence partnership is characterized by mutual trust, common values and a long tradition of concrete cooperation, especially when it comes to maritime security.
Over the longer term, this partnership can become even more strategic, systematic and sustainable, perhaps providing a model for other countries to follow. Moreover, the close relations between the two countries provides a counter-argument to those who accuse Germany of neglecting the interests of smaller European countries.
Germany’s overall foreign, security and defence policy line – which features NATO and the EU as cornerstones – is unlikely to change significantly in the wake of the new conservative–social democratic government taking power. Nonetheless, the new administration will have to show more determination and political will if it is to get things done and assume greater responsibility for Germany’s and Europe’s security.
In the shorter term, the German government has secured more funding for security and defence due to the release of the constitutional debt brake. In the medium and long term, however, a sound combination of creating debt and making room in the normal budget for more defence spending (which may also involve tax increases) will be required. At the same time, care must be taken to make more effective and efficient use of the available funds, rather than simply spending ever greater quantities. It would be wise to remain cautious and realistic about Germany’s political and military leadership capabilities in the short term, as the country has a lot of catching up to do in the first instance.
Nonetheless, while Germany cannot lead alone in all domains and geographical areas, it can lead by example through continuing along the path it has embarked on. Successful leadership requires effective burden-sharing, meaning that several countries must be willing (whether singularly or jointly) to take the lead on particular issues or in specific geographical areas. Ideally, leadership should be conducted by small(er) groups of likeminded countries, including combinations of bigger and smaller states where appropriate. The close Norwegian–German security and defence partnership is characterized by mutual trust, common values and a long tradition of concrete cooperation, especially when it comes to maritime security.
Over the longer term, this partnership can become even more strategic, systematic and sustainable, perhaps providing a model for other countries to follow. Moreover, the close relations between the two countries provides a counter-argument to those who accuse Germany of neglecting the interests of smaller European countries.
- Published year: 2025
- Publisher: NUPI
- Page count: 34
- Language: English
Written by
Tobias Etzold
Senior Research Fellow