Russia and frozen conflicts in the Black Sea region

This policy brief examines the role frozen conflicts play in Russian policy towards the Black Sea Region and measures that could be taken to limit the negative impact of this policy in the region.1 Its focus is on the four frozen conflicts existing in the post-Soviet space – Transnistria in Moldova, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and Nagorno Karabakh in Azerbaijan, as well as on the more recent conflict in Eastern Ukraine that has many features characteristic of frozen conflicts and the aim is to demonstrate how these conflicts have been instrumentalized in Russian foreign and security policy and what needs to be done in policy terms to limit the negative impacts these conflicts have had and may have on the security situation in the region.

The first section presents the general understanding of the frozen conflicts. The second part presents briefly the main parameters of frozen conflicts that have emerged and are still very much present in the post-Soviet space and in the broadly understood Black Sea Region. The third part focuses on the role of frozen conflicts in Russian foreign and security policy, and the fourth part presents some policy relevant conclusions and recommendations.

The main preliminary conclusion is that these conflicts will most probably remain unsolved in the foreseeable future and that this will have a negative impact on the security situation in the region where Russia will still approach these conflicts in an instrumental manner as an issue that can give Russia some strategic advantages or at least prevent solution of these conflicts in a way that would reduce Russia’s strategic footprint in the region.