Publications
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet — Lake Chad*
Climate change and conflict are deeply intertwined in the Lake Chad region, where resource scarcity, displacement and erratic weather patterns fuel tensions between communities and increase vulnerability to extremist recruitment. This NUPI-SIPRI fact sheet investigates what the UN and its member states should focus on in order to improve the situation in the Lake Chad region.
Lutter contre l’insécurité liée au changement climatique dans la région du lac Tchad
This is a french translation of the report 'Responding to climate change-related insecurity in the Lake Chad region'
Preventing climate-change related conflict: Why Artificial Intelligence (AI) alone won’t close the early-warning response gap
Artificial Intelligence (AI) brings new opportunities and challenges to international efforts to warn about and respond to climate change-related conflict. This policy brief discusses the benefits and risks of AI-enhanced Conflict Early Warning and Early Response (CEWER) systems for climate-induced conflict, demonstrating that the effectiveness of such systems depends on how well they can be aligned with context-specific approaches to data analysis. In this policy brief the author recommends the following: • International partners should prioritise supporting locally embedded, participatory conflict early warning initiatives that carefully balance technical sophistication with local needs. • National civil society organizations should increase their capacity to engage with AI systems and AI-generated information, to support the integration and uptake of AI-driven early warning systems among local communities. • Research organisations and technology companies that build and supply AI-powered early warning systems should adopt human-centred design approaches.
Protecting Critical Undersea Infrastructure: Enhancing NB8 Maritime Security Cooperation
Critical undersea infrastructure encompassing various energy and data connections underpins economic cooperation among the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8). But a turbulent geopolitical environment has exposed its vulnerabilities. To reduce risks, the NB8 need to enhance security cooperation, innovation, and defence-industrial coordination. This policy brief is part of a series where the eight leading institutes of the NB8 countries commit to working more closely together on analysis and research to deepen understanding of the evolving security, political, and societal dynamics shaping the Nordic-Baltic region in an era of renewed great power competition.
Caught in the Middle: Research Security between Open Internationalization and National and Economic Security
Does research security imply a new approach to international cooperation, and how does it square with already established knowledge‑ and security‑related policies? Using the EU and Norway as cases, in this chapter we study how research security gets situated between, and fits with, three sets of established knowledge‑ and security‑related policies. These are: (a) open internationalization policies, which highlight the benefits of international research cooperation; (b) national security policies, which address protection against risks; and (c) the EU’s more recently developed economic security strategy, which promotes building competitive capacities. Moreover, the chapter demonstrates how technology, digital technology and Chinese activities concerning emerging and critical technologies are front and center of most debates surrounding research security in Europe.
Fashionably or fatally late? exploring NDC procrastination in the UNFCCC
The current global climate change mitigation regime established by the Paris Agreement rests on a “pledge-and-review“ mechanism with the cyclical submission of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to progressively increase climate ambition. Following the 2023 collective review, the so-called Global Stocktake (GST), Parties were required to submit updated NDCs by February 2025. Yet compliance has been strikingly low: only 16 of 198 Parties met the deadline, and even after an extended September cutoff, just 64 submissions were recorded, covering roughly 30% of global emissions. We examine the phenomenon of NDC procrastination – the widespread delay in meeting procedural obligations – and its implications for the climate regime. Drawing on 23 country case studies, compliance reports, and fieldwork at the climate summit in Bonn, we identify four clusters of factors behind delayed submissions. Financial and institutional capacity challenges include resource constraints, reliance on external technical assistance, and complex whole-of-government coordination requirements. Technical and data-related challenges stem from gaps in emissions inventories, modelling expertise, and recalibration needs when baselines shift. Political and governance challenges range from domestic uncertainty (elections, coalition changes) to geopolitical shocks, armed conflict, and instances of ‘green backlash,’ where governments actively obstruct climate policy. Finally, procedural and strategic dynamics encourage states to delay pledges for performative or tactical reasons. While these factors can explain why many parties were late with their submissions, the question of what NDC procrastination means for the future of global climate action is more complex. While NDCs are visibly treated more seriously by many, and considerable resources are channeled into the work on pledges, the scale of non-compliance underscores the fragility of procedural norms. Furthermore, the post-GST round of delayed pledges highlights the tension between detailed, economy-wide pledges aligned with domestic policies and ratcheting up mitigation ambition at a pace needed to tackle dangerous climate change.
As open as possible? Comparing Scandinavian approaches to research security
Intensifying geopolitical rivalries have triggered a series of national and international policy initiatives designed to safeguard research security and reduce risks associated with international scientific collaboration. This paper undertakes a comparative analysis of Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, examining the structures, processes, and policy frames that shape their respective approaches to research security and responsible internationalization. Although the Scandinavian countries share cultural, linguistic, and political similarities, as well as advanced research capabilities, their institutionalized strategies for managing the tension between openness and security diverge in significant ways. By examining the policy frames and the interplay between structural and processual factors, the study reveals how these variations produce distinct governance outcomes. Through this analysis, the paper contributes to conceptualizing a typology of national approaches, offering insights into how small, open knowledge economies navigate the dual imperatives of international engagement and strategic protection in an era of geopolitical uncertainty.
Mapping Russian interests and power repertoires in the MENA region and Ukraine
This report presents a comparative examination of the key drivers of Russia’s foreign and security policy focusing on its power repertoires in two geopolitical contexts: in Ukraine, where conflict has been ongoing since 2014 and entered a new phase in February 2022; and in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where Russia has been more active since its military engagement in Syria in 2015.
The uneven influence of the Global Stocktake on national climate policy and the NDCs
The Global Stocktake (GST), concluded at the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP) in Dubai in 2023, is seen as a central component of the Paris Agreement’s ambition cycle, as it is meant to assess collective global progress, which should inform future Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Many commentators and Parties put significant hope in the Stocktake’s ability to ratchet up ambition in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process. Following the Dubai COP, which resulted in the impressive “Outcome of the global stocktake” (Decision -/CMA.5) spanning almost 200 detailed paragraphs, some Parties expected the GST to become a new impulse for collective efforts to combat climate change. More critical voices, however, expressed unease and concern about “replacing the Paris Agreement with the Global Stocktake” – which meant departing from the nationally determined and diversified approach that was agreed in 2015. This policy brief takes a closer look of the influence on national climate policy and the NDCs.
Energy
Energy is not a political science concept. It originates in physics and describes “a fundamental entity of nature,” best understood as “the capacity for doing work.” Furthermore, as the Encyclopaedia Britannica notes, it “may exist in potential, kinetic, thermal, electrical, chemical, nuclear, or other forms,” to which Merriam-Webster dictionary adds that it can be “transferred between parts of a system in the production of physical change within the system.” At the same time, energy is a frequent object of political discussions, due to the fundamental role it plays in modern societies. Energy generates welfare through ceding human physical labor to work done by machines, from home appliances to steelworks; it provides the physical comfort of adequately heated or cooled surroundings; it makes possible the mobility achieved through modern means of transportation. All of these rely on the conversion of energy resources into energy services. Socioeconomic development is correlated with increasingly higher energy consumption (Destek & Sarkodie, 2019). The fundamental and omnipresent nature of energy and its importance for sustaining modern livelihoods are expressed with the often-used metaphor of the “lifeblood of society.” This has political consequences, as access to energy services at a certain level and affordable price is the foundation of social contracts, leading to popular discontent when these are not provided.