Publications

Russia in the Black Sea region and in the High North: similarities and differences in strategic posture and responses to war in Ukraine

How the Snake Island matters in the context of the 2022 war in Ukraine? An assessment of the strategic importance of the most disputed island of th...

Ad-hoc Security Initiatives, an African response to insecurity

This article contends that Ad-hoc Security Initiatives (ASI) have developed over the last decade in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin and represents a new form of African collective security mechanism. The G5 Sahel Force and the Multi-National Joint Task Force emerged from a context-specific need for small clusters of African states to respond collectively to a shared cross-border security threat(s). The existing African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) mechanisms were not specific and responsive enough to meet this emerging need. Despite substantial investments over the last twenty years by the African Union, Regional Economic Community/ Regional Mechanisms and international partners to establish the African Standby Force, this instrument was not agile enough to respond to the type of threats experienced in the greater Sahel region. In this article, we trace the emergence of a new type of ASI, examine how they fill an essential gap and analyse why the African Standby Force was not able to meet this need. We then consider the implications of these developments for the future of the APSA and how closer collaboration between ASIs and APSA can be developed.

Standby security arrangements and deployment setbacks: The case of the African Standby Force

The African Standby Force (ASF) is a key mechanism for advancing African agency in addressing the continent’s peace and security threats. The African Union (AU), regional economic communities (RECs) and regional mechanisms (RMs) have previously deployed stabilisation missions and ad hoc security initiatives (ASIs). Yet these deployments don’t strictly reflect the principles envisaged in the original ASF make-up and authorisation processes. In this report, the authors argue that the future of the ASF future should be seen as an opportunity for the AU and RECs/RMs to standardise the quest for African agency and adopt an agile approach that aims for better partnerships between the RECs, ASIs and member states.

Europeanisation of Norwegian security and defence policy. Nordic cooperation as vehicle.

With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European security has been placed on high alert, highlighting the importance of both the EU and NATO as key, although different, regional security actors. As the election of a more isolationist president in the US again in 2024 or 2028 cannot be excluded, boosting European security and defence should be a key objective for both Norway and its European allies. Such a Europeanisation should be seen as an add-on to Norway’s NATO membership, but should imply a more serious investment in various initiatives taken by the EU and key EU-member states (France and Germany), in addition to those taken by the UK. Strengthening Nordic security and defence cooperation should also be seen as a vehicle for a much-needed Europeanisation of Norwegian security and defence policy. With Sweden and Finland now entering NATO and Denmark returning to the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), the potential for Nordic security cooperation as a means to this end has never been greater.

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Central African Republic

In this new Fact Sheet from the joint NUPI and SIPRI Climate-related Peace and Security Risks Project (CPSR). The research team explore the nexus between climate change, peace and security.

Navigating ASEAN-Myanmar Relations: The Phnom Penh Summit as a Critical Juncture for (Dis)Engagement

This article considers recent internal developments in Myanmar and how they strain external relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It identifies ASEAN’s Phnom Penh Summit as a critical juncture for disengaging the military government, engaging non-political entities and upgrading the 2021 Five-Point Consensus.

The Abe Legacy

With the terrible assassination of former Prime minister of Japan, Abe Shinzo, an important, but not always uncontroversial, political era in Japan is over. As the longest serving Prime minster, he leaves an important legacy in Japanese politics, but also in relation to the role he wanted Japan to play on the global scene. Based on the 99th Stockholm Seminar on Japan, two invited experts, Dr. Wrenn Yennie Lindgren and Dr. Richard Nakamura, share their views on the international political, as well as economic implications of the passing of Abe in this policy brief.

The Amazon rainforest and the global–regional politics of ecosystem governance

This article examines the global–regional politics of ecosystem governance through the case of the Amazon rainforest. Despite the bourgeoning literature on global and regional environmental politics, the interplay of these dynamics in ecosystem governance has still received limited attention. I here propose that the politics of ecosystem governance are rooted in a dispute over the realization of alternative ecosystem services. When global actors become invested in promoting ecosystem preservation to secure the realization services with diffuse benefits, it can affect cooperation at the regional level. Ecosystem-adjacent states can perceive external interest as a threat, building regional cooperation as a tool to defend sovereignty, but also as an opportunity, using it to bargain the terms of their stewardship. I use this framework to trace the evolution of regional cooperation in the Amazon, demonstrating how it was developed in response to this ecosystem's growing global salience. Through defensive sovereignty and bargained stewardship, regional cooperation helped Amazon states to cap international commitment and limit external influence in the region but also allowed for building some form of coordinated ecosystem protection. The research sheds new light on both the potential and the limitations of global–regional engagements for the preservation of the Amazon and other analogous cross-border ecosystems.

Norway needs energy and security policy coherence

Prior to 2022, Norwegian policymakers have hardly considered coherence between energy and security, and the few coordinating elements in place are focused on emergency preparedness. • Keeping policy areas separate and energy de-securitized has helped improve Norway’s position in the old energy world. However, both the progressing European energy transition and new geopolitical threats from Russia increasingly challenge this arrangement. • Lack of policy coherence makes Norwegian governance less effective in dealing both with sudden shocks, like the Nord Stream sabotage, and long-term stress factors, like climatic change. • Formalized coordination mechanisms between ministries and agencies are necessary and will increase both governance effectiveness and accountability. • Existing agency level collaboration on emergency preparedness may be a starting point. • A transition requires significant institutional reorganization which may be difficult to achieve. Old structures and agencies may not support security issues connected to a new kind of energy system.