Lebanon poised at the brink
Gravely affected by the Syrian crisis, Lebanon has remained relatively stable against all odds – despite the influx of some 1.5 million Syrian refugees and an internal political crisis involving supporters of opposing Syrian factions. Lebanon’s resilience can be explained by the high opportunity cost of state breakdown for domestic, regional and international political actors. Moreover, international economic assistance, diaspora remittances and informal networks established by refugees help to prevent outright economic breakdown. However, stability remains extremely precarious. Primary tipping points include (1) an IS strategy to spread the conflict to Lebanon, with consequent disintegration of the army along sectarian lines, (2) democratic decline and people’s dissatisfaction, (3) Hizbullah’s domestic ambitions and Israeli fears over the group’s growing military powers and (4) the potential that frustration between refugees and host communities may erupt into recurrent violence. The slow economic and sanitary decline in the country (5), however, is considered the biggest challenge.
Lebanon on knife-edge
With Syria to the north-east, Israel in the south and faced with its own political crises, Lebanon finds itself challenged on many fronts.
Lebanon on the brink
Gravely affected by the Syrian crisis, Lebanon has managed to remain relatively stable against all odds – despite the influx of some 1.5 million Syrian refugees and internal political crisis involving actors who support opposing Syrian factions. Lebanon’s resilience can be explained by the high opportunity cost of state breakdown for domestic, regional and international political actors. Moreover, international economic assistance, diaspora remittances and informal networks established by refugees help to prevent outright economic breakdown. Yet, stability remains extremely precarious. Important tipping points include (1) the IS strategy of spreading the conflict to Lebanon, and the consequent disintegration of the army along sectarian lines, (2) democratic decline and popular dissatisfaction, (3) Hizbullah’s domestic ambitions and Israeli fears over the group’s growing military power and (4) the potential for frustration between refugees and host communities turning into recurrent violence. However, (5) the slow economic decline and the worsening sanitary conditions stand out as the greatest challenges.
Community-based policing and post-conflict police reform (ICT4COP)
This research project will create greater knowledge of social, cultural, legal and ethical dimensions of community-based policing in post-conflict societies....
Lebanon at a brink
With the Syrian war, Lebanon has received 1,5 million refugees and become a buffer state against IS’ Jihadism. What explains the country’s resilience against a violent spill-over from Syria?
External powers and the Arab spring
How did external powers react when the political landscape opened up and the Arab Spring unfolded? And how much did they matter? Sverre Lodgaard addresses these questions in his most recent book.
Tine Gade
On leave. Tine Gade is Senior Research Fellow in NUPI’s Research Group on Peace, Conflict and Development. She holds a PhD in political science fr...
Book launch: External Powers and the Arab Spring
What was the role of external powers during the Arab Spring?
Protection of Civilians. From Principle to Practice (PoC)
Protection of Civilians: From Principle to Practice...
Morocco, challenges in the region and its cooperation with the EU
In this seminar, Mohammed Tawfik Mouline, wil give a presentation on Morocco’s major achievements at the political, economic and social levels.