Trump 2.0 og internasjonal politikk
I denne spesialrapporten har Senter for geopolitikk samlet en rekke bidrag fra forskere tilknyttet senteret, fra Fridtjof Nansen Institutt, Institutt for Forsvarsstudier, Universitetet i Oslo, UiT – Norges Arktiske Universitet og Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt. Bidragene setter søkelys på noen konkrete temaer som inntak til å forstå et USA i endring og hva det vil kunne bety for andre stater, og for utviklingen på konkrete politikkfelt. Rapporten har særlig fokus på hva disse endringene, hver for seg og samlet, betyr for Europa og Norge. En oppdatert versjon ble publisert 12.06.25, klokken 12.40.
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Haiti
Located on the Atlantic hurricane belt, Haiti is susceptible to earthquakes and is particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change due to its geographical location as well as political instability, extreme poverty and gang violence. Rising sea levels, changing precipitation patterns and frequent natural disasters and extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, landslides and earthquakes, exacerbate the country’s humanitarian crisis. Flooding during El Niño years worsens existing food insecurity and drives displacement, increasing population pressure on host communities and fuelling social tensions.
Trump, debt and the risk of an own goal
The bond market can bring down governments and force shifts in economic policy, even in great powers, writes Ole Jacob Sending in this op-ed. « I wish I could come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.» This is how James Carville, advisor to Bill Clinton, described the power wielded by the bond market. In 2025, Carville’s quote has regained relevance. The United States’ position as an economic hegemon is under pressure, not least due to a combination of high debt levels and the Trump administration’s irresponsible economic policies. The bond market may be the clearest example of how political power is grounded in economic power – particularly in a globalized world. The effects of this market are felt across all economies, including those of the great powers.
Trump, debt and the risk of an own goal
The bond market can bring down governments and force shifts in economic policy, even in great powers, writes Ole Jacob Sending in this op-ed. « I wish I could come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.» This is how James Carville, advisor to Bill Clinton, described the power wielded by the bond market. In 2025, Carville’s quote has regained relevance. The United States’ position as an economic hegemon is under pressure, not least due to a combination of high debt levels and the Trump administration’s irresponsible economic policies. The bond market may be the clearest example of how political power is grounded in economic power – particularly in a globalized world. The effects of this market are felt across all economies, including those of the great powers.
How can peacekeeping contribute to advancing Women, Peace and Security?
When UN member states contribute expertise and capacity building, this can simultaneously contribute to advancing Women, Peace and Security. This is, however, likely to be a function of the gender norms of the society and security sector of the Police Contributing Country in question. Police Contributing Countries that seek to contribute to advancing the WPS agenda, should therefore work towards gendering their own security sectors. If gender mainstreaming remains an individual responsibility, advancing gender equality and the WPS agenda in peacekeeping is not likely to have a transformative effect on the security sectors of host countries. Interventions and projects seeking to affect transformative change should target structural factors of gender inequality, such as existing gender norms in the workplace. However, such actions also need to go beyond the security sector itself, as women’s choices are also limited by societal, cultural and religious norms.
Arctic Spillover? Military Signalling in the European Arctic Before and After the Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
How has Russian and Western military activity in the European Arctic evolved following Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine? Are we seeing a more forward-leaning and assertive Russia, and have NATO allies strengthened their presence? In short, are we seeing an intensified mutual deterrence posture? These crucial questions are made all the more pressing by the region hosting a significant proportion of Russia’s sea-based strategic nuclear arsenal. Against this backdrop, the article analyses developments in both Russian and Western military activity in the European Arctic, with a particular focus on how deterrence is signalled through military posture. The study finds that, despite claims to the contrary, military day-to-day business in the European Arctic remains relatively unchanged. Russia’s activities appear to signal a desire to maintain the status quo rather than revisionist stance. While the West has strengthened its deterrence signalling, its posture remains measured.
Lessons from Tanzania’s property tax reform in 2021: Perceptions of fairness and efficiency
This study examines the effectiveness and taxpayer perceptions of Tanzania’s 2021 property tax reform, which introduced the use of electricity tokens for tax payment. The reform aimed to simplify tax collection and improve compliance by linking payments of property tax electricity purchases through the state-owned electricity provider Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO). A survey of 509 property owners in Dar es Salaam and Morogoro reveals high awareness of the reform (81%), but mixed views on its fairness and equity. Many respondents (55%) believe the reform did not achieve equitable distribution of the tax burden. However, the use of electricity tokens was seen as efficient and cost-effective by 57% of respondents. Despite these operational advantages, concerns about fairness and limited reductions in tax burdens for lower-income groups persisted. The findings suggest that while the reform has improved administrative efficiency, more attention is needed to address issues of equity and public trust in the system. Policymakers are encouraged to consider valuation-based tax methods to ensure a fairer distribution of the property tax burden.
Marc Lanteigne
Marc Lanteigne is a specialist on the politics and foreign policy of China and East Asia (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) and Oceania / Pacific Island...
Arctic Security Conference 2025: Managing Fragmentation and Polarization
Building on last year's success, ASC25 aims to contribute to an enlightened debate about security policy in the north.