Regionale og bilaterale handelsavtaler i Latin-Amerika. Konsekvenser for norsk eksport

Factors behind the environmental Kuznets curve. A decomposition of the changes in air pollution

Firms' export decisions - fixed trade costs and the size of the export market

Rammevilkår for norsk fiskeeksport

I en spørreundersøkelse ble 81 norske sjømateksportører også bedt om å kommentere ulike rammevilkår for eksporten. Dette notat oppsummerer resultatene fra denne del av undersøkelsen, uten å gjennomføre en full evaluering av de enkelte tiltak. Resultatene viser at toll og handelshindringer oppfattes som viktigst av ulike rammevilkår. Markedsføring og informasjon om handelshindringer fra EFF (Eksportutvalget for fisk) er også viktig for bedriftene, mens EFFs informasjon om enkeltmarkeder er lavere verdsatt. Mens mange norske sjømateksportører – spesielt små bedrifter - anvender GIEKs eksportkredittgarantier, mener en del av dem at GIEKs tilbud i markeder med høy risiko er for begrenset. Notatet reiser spørsmål om hvorvidt eksportfremmende tiltak i større grad bør rettes inn mot nye markeder i startfasen.

EUs utvidelse og handelsvilkårene for norsk fiskeeksport

Notatet analyserer hvordan tollbelastningen for norsk sjømateksport til søkerlandene kan påvirkes av EUs utvidelse. Norge har frihandelsavtaler med 11 av de 13 søkerlandene, og som følge av dette er tollen for fiskeeksport til disse landene null i de fleste tilfeller. Dersom EUs toll innføres for disse landene, øker tollen til 8.5% i gjennomsnitt fordi eksporten særlig består av varer med høy EU-toll (pelagisk fisk). I tillegg blir Norges konkurranseposisjon svekket fordi EU-landene får null toll istedenfor en tollbelastning på 5-8% i dag. Dersom Norge ikke får kompensasjon for økt toll, kan det føre til en betydelig reduksjon i eksporten. Ved tidligere EUutvidelser har imidlertid Norge fått kompensasjon, stort sett i form av tollfrie kvoter. Notatet argumenterer for at dette er sannsynlig også denne gang, selv om det juridisk sett ikke er helt selvsagt. Muligens vil en generell tollreduksjon være bedre enn tollfrie kvoter, fordi kvoter skaper byråkrati og ikke kan tilpasses endringer i handelsmønsteret.

Virkninger for norsk fiskerinæring av en ny forhandlingsrunde i WTO : Simulerte reduksjoner i handelsrestriksjoner i den internasjonale likevektsm...

En ny forhandlingsrunde i WTO kan medføre betydelige tollreduksjoner for fiskerinæringen. Dette vil bedre eksportmulighetene for Norge i mange markeder, men samtidig undergrave den tollfordel Norge har i EU-markedet i forhold til en del konkurrenter. Resultatene fra en analyse med den internasjonale likevektsmodellen GTAP med verden inn-delt i 26 regioner, viser at dersom bare tollen for fisk blir redusert i WTO, øker samlet eks-port-verdi av fisk for Norge. Handelen med EU går imidlertid noe ned, men dette kompenseres ved høyere eksport til resten av verden. Tollreduksjoner i andre sektorer som følge av WTO-forhandlingene kan endre utfallet. Liberalisering av landbrukssektoren vrir konsumetter-spørs-elen fra fisk mot landbruksvarer, og dette bidrar til mindre eksport av fisk. Liberalisering på industri-området fører til økt eksport av fisk fordi verdens inntektsnivå øker.

Norway as an Allied Activist - Prestige and Pennance through Peace

According to a standard view, popular among Norwegian commentators and historians, Norway’s foreign relations after World War II are like a pendulum swinging from side to side, between national interests and national values, between the will to secure the state and its territory and the will to represent a global cosmopolitan spirituality. This notion of a Norwegian foreign policy pendulum coincides with the traditional realism-idealism dichotomy within the study of international relations. The formula has become a dominant theoretical ingredient in most current analyses of Norwegian foreign policy, and is a favoured perspective from which politicians celebrate Norway’s post-cold war role on the international scene. And that role, at least as far as the selfperception takes it, is that of being an exponent of international «activism» and «engagement». The first section of this report addresses the question how to approach Nor-wegian foreign policy analytically. The authors suggest that neither the perspective of the essentialists highlighting more or less permanent national interests, nor the geopolitical and systemic focus of the structuralists present fully credible explanations. Instead they argue that present Norwegian foreign policy is about the creation, maintenance and enhancement of a role or an identity whose main function is to gain recognition, attention and contact in order to maximize international influence. In the second part, the authors point at the importance of consensus in Norwegian policy and identify three basic positions in the Norwegian foreign policy discourse. They suggest that pragmatic idealism, a school of thought capable of exploring the analytical approach sketched above, is the dominant factor. In the third part, the authors focus on some fundamental experiences that have formed the Norwegian image of self in relation to the world. They propose that this heritage represents strong inherent and latent tensions in Norwegian politics.

Transition from socialism - the corruption heritage

The paper explores the apparently high incidence of corruption in those former socialist countries where the Communist Party lost power. It argues that part of the explanation of the high corruption incidence is to be sought in the simultaneous production decline which gives rise to a Schumpeter effect, where former bureaucrats are becoming corruption entrepreneurs. Another important factor is the swift change in the ruling norms giving rise to a Huntington effect an overshooting of the applicability of the market mechanism. An important driver of both effects is the monetation of the centralised multitiered bartering system of the old socialist economies. That process is briefly compared to older forms of market expansion into decentralised non-market agricultural economies as analysed by Polanyi and Marx.

Sunk costs in the exporting activity: Implications for international trade and specialisation

International trade costs may be sunk and not proportional to sales. The paper explores this theoretically, by allowing firms to invest in sales channels or marketing in order to increase demand in each market. The returns to such investments will, ceteris paribus, be higher in markets with lower variable trade costs (e.g. transport costs). Firms will therefore invest and sell more at home than in foreign markets, and more in foreign markets with low variable trade costs. Sunk export costs will therefore amplify the trade-reducing impact of other trade barriers, and dampen the «home market effect» whereby large countries tend to be net exporters of differentiated goods.

Strengthening Cooperative Threat Reduction with Russia : The Norwegian Experience

Many nuclear safety and security challenges remain in Northwest Russia. Years of international cooperation – and substantial funding – are required to deal with the legacy of the extensive nuclear activities of the Cold War. Among the more urgent projects that call for international attention are the safe dismantling of nuclear attack submarines and clean-up at naval storage facilities, e.g. at Andreeva Bay. For nearly a decade, Norway and other countries have been working cooperatively with Russia to improve the situation. While important progress has been made, much of the foreign support has come with some hard-learned experiences. However, the dialog established, the cooperative framework institutionalized, and today’s understanding of the respective concerns, priorities, and practices of the actors involved should create a sound basis for new rounds of cooperative and concerted efforts to limit the persistent nuclear security and safety risks in the region. In this report, past and ongoing activities for remedial actions in Northwest Russia are assessed, and suggestions for continued and improved cooperation are presented. The survey has been conducted as part of the Norwegian contribution to the international research consortium on «Strengthening the Global Partnership: Protecting Against the Spread of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons».