A warmer Arctic in colder geopolitical climate: What role for the private sector?
• The Arctic is experiencing considerable physical and geopolitical change affecting states, Indigenous peoples and various stakeholders. • Private sector actors are also affected by climate change, geopolitical developments and economic trends in the Arctic, although the impacts on and potential governance role of the private sector in securing safety and stability in the Arctic are often neglected in policy analyses. • This policy note outlines key stressors in the region and gives recommendations as to how the private sector can contribute to a safe and stable Arctic by supporting governance and sharing knowledge.
Trump, Global Order, and the Liberal West
A Postliberal Global Order? Challenge(r)s to the Liberal West
In a new report, NUPI’s senior researcher Minda Holm looks closer at which international order it is that is under pressure. What is the issue with seeing the world through the lens of a post-1945 Liberal International or Rules-Based Order? What do actors like Russia and China have in common with the populist radical right in their perspectives on global politics? And what does Donald Trump’s second term entail for the liberal West?
Breakfast seminar: India's rise and great power competition
India is the world’s largest democracy, has high economic growth, and is one of very few countries that cooperates with both Russia and the US. How does India balance between Russia, China and the US?
Topos of threat and metapolitics in Russia’s securitisation of NATO post-Crimea
This article makes a twofold contribution on the relationship between self/other securitisation, ambiguous threat constructions, and anxiety at the intersection of Securitisation Theory (ST) and Ontological Security Studies (OSS). First, we develop the concept topos of threat (TT) as a potent linguistic anchor in securitisation processes. TTs depict an entire self/other threat situation that warrants escape, serving identity needs while staying flexible and ambiguous. However, their frequent rhetorical deployment can blur the threat construction and increase anxiety: this challenges the classical scholarly assumption that antagonism necessarily alleviates anxiety. Second, we theorise metapolitics as an anxiety mediation strategy. Metapolitics is a mode of interpretation – a relentless analysis of surface clues to expose a deceptive, powerful adversary – which in the final event fails to alleviate anxiety. The dual practice of nurturing topoi of threat and metapolitics drives conflict because it sets in motion a vicious securitisation spiral that entrenches rigid patterns of self/other representation and fosters a bias of anticipating hostility. We employ abductive theorising: working with established theory alongside empirical discovery through a discourse analysis of Russia’s official rhetoric on NATO and the use of the TT ‘colour revolution’ since the conflict in Ukraine began in 2014.
Trump II: A new trajectory in Russia relations for NATO Nordic states
• The incoming Trump administration will replace the policy of “stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes” with “making a deal with Russia”. This might entail de-escalation with Russia as well as economic and security burden-sharing with Europe. Norway and its now NATO neighbours Sweden and Finland have a window of opportunity to develop new policy for the second Trump term. • An adjusted approach to relations with Russia in the North can be devised that draws on Norwegian traditions in its relations with Russia. This approach will differ from the UK, Poland and the Baltic States but can represent a fruitful model of NATO membership for the Nordic states. • Despite a significant decline in military tension in the North since 2022, the risk of a future security competition with Russia and Nordic NATO members should not be downplayed. Presuming Russia is a status quo power in the North, NATO should have a clear and predictable posture in the North that combines deterrence and reassurance. • Russia should not be treated as a monolithic entity; there are moderates that would welcome diplomacy with Nordic NATO neighbours. Backchannel contacts between Russia and the Nordic NATO states can develop the outlines of an adjusted security posture for the North that could be received favourably by the new Trump Administration as it attempts to open negotiations to end the war in Ukraine
Water and Conflict in Central Asia
This project examines the escalating water scarcity crisis in Central Asia, focusing on key hotspots like the Qosh Tepa Canal, to analyze how climate change, population growth, and unilateral water st...
Fra salong til stormaktsspill
Hvordan var det å være kvinne i diplomatiet før i tiden? Og hvordan er det å være «diplomatfrue»? I denne episoden av Utenrikshospitalet får vi et...
Mistra Mineral Governance (MISTRA)
MISTRA will help public and private decision-makers in Sweden and in the EU navigate the landscape of critical minerals and the low carbon energy transmission....
Polen og krigen i Ukraina: Er stemningen i ferd med å snu?
The main aim of this article is to map how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has influenced Polish attitudes and, consequently, Polish politics. The article begins with a thorough review of Polish attitudes toward Ukraine, Ukrainians, and the war. It also analyzes whether Polish attitudes differ from those in other NATO and EU countries. This analysis of attitudes is followed by an eclectic examination of the measures implemented by Polish authorities in response to the war, based on various understandings of the forces shaping international relations, with particular emphasis on explanations rooted in realist, liberal-institutionalist, and constructivist perspectives of international relations.