NATO at a Crossroads: Views from NATO HQ and Norway
A seminar with NATO Deputy Secretary General, Mircea Geoană and the Norwegian Minister of Defence, Odd Roger Enoksen on the current challenges facing NATO.
Dagsnytt18 om NATO, USA, Russland og Ukraina
Debate about the release of intelligence to thwart Russian offensive operations against Ukraine
Rebel governance? A literature review of Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province
The literature on rebel governance has fundamentally challenged the idea that ‘governance’ is the sole prerogative of ‘government’. Despite important advances over the past decade, studies have largely addressed rebel governance from an ‘institutionalist’ approach. This review seeks to go beyond an ‘institutionalist’ approach, by understanding ‘governance’ as the ‘whole set of practices and norms that govern daily life in a specific territory’. Drawing on a thorough review of literature on Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), this working paper analyses five under-examined independent variables that shape rebel governance in Nigeria’s north-east and Niger: illegitimate state practices, community resilience, and cohesion, external counterinsurgency actions, ‘big men’, and ideology.
Kan Norge oppleve et cyberangrep i dag?
This oped discusses the risk of a cyber attack on Norwegian energy infrastructure after the introduction of sanctions against Russia in connection with Russia's war against Ukraine.
Differentiated Integration and EU Outsiders: A Norwegian View
A non-EU state and member of the European Economic Area (EEA) since 1994, Norway enjoys a unique legal, political and practical relationship with the EU. This policy paper discusses what the EU’s increased openness to differentiation in association models and decision-making procedures could mean for a highly integrated third country like Norway, especially within foreign, security and defence policy. Based on interviews conducted in 2020 and 2021, we highlight three observations: First, Norway’s current association model – the EEA agreement plus some 70 bilateral agreements – is generally seen to have served Norwegian interests well, although both Europhile and EU-sceptic interviewees see EU–Norway relations as asymmetric. Second, the EU’s openness to differentiated solutions is generally welcomed, and considered to give Norway opportunities and leeway. Finally, Norwegian EU membership is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. Reasons include well-functioning association agreements, two negative votes on EU membership, and the continued and growing strength of EU-sceptic political parties in the Norwegian Parliament.
Heading Forward in Response to Crisis: How the Ukraine Crisis Affected EU Maritime Foreign and Security Policy Integration
This chapter discusses the impact of the Ukraine crisis on EU foreign and security policy integration. It finds that the EU has responded to Russia’s aggression by deepening cooperation in areas not directly linked to Ukraine. Two least likely cases are analyzed: The EU’s Maritime Security Strategy and the EU’s Arctic policies. In both of these cases, agreement among the EU member states to adopt a common EU policy was driven mainly by Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. This crisis functioned as a critical juncture, moving EU security policies to the top of the EU agenda and affecting reluctant member states’ positions in favor of forming common policies. In the foreign policy domain, crisis triggers more integration as the EU member states reactively seek to address common challenges.
Finlandisering og mulig finsk Nato-medlemskap
Radio interview about Finland and Sweden's debate about NATO membership. How is the Ukraine war impacting on security debates in the Nordic states?
Russian Certainty of NATO Hostility: Repercussions in the Arctic
How does a security dilemma dynamic between parties deemed not to hold hostile intentions toward each other emerge and escalate? This article investigates Russian official discourse on NATO engagement in Europe post-Crimea (2014), and its impact on security interaction in the Arctic. We also examine how Russia represents NATO intentions and actions in a context seen by Russia as a relation of war. We identify the effect of these changing representations of self and other for the emerging securitization dilemma in relations between Russia and NATO, arguing that they have replaced uncertainty about NATO’s hostile intentions with certainty. Although Russia still articulates the Arctic as a unique cooperative region, there may be little space left for non-conflictual Russian action when encountering NATO in the Arctic. We highlight the agency and importance of evolving political rhetoric in creating a dangerous situation where lethal conflict can occur between parties who do not seek it, and also suggest that adjustments to patterns of official speech could be a tool of mitigation
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: South Sudan
Unpredictable annual variations in extreme weather events, like flooding and droughts, affect agriculture-dependent communities and influence pastoralist mobility patterns and routes. Such changes may intensify the risk of tensions between herders and farmers, often in connection with land, grazing, water and communal affairs. Transhumance, including cross-border migration from Sudan through the Greater Upper Nile in particular, exacerbates the spread of veterinary diseases and fuels environmental degradation and competition over scarce resources. Women and girls continue to bear the brunt of the effects of climate change; female-headed households are especially vulnerable. Climate-related livestock losses compounded by pre-existing rivalries increase the risk of cattle raiding, which can trigger retaliation, communal conflict, displacement, deepening intercommunal rivalry and the formation of armed groups.