Virkninger for norsk fiskerinæring av en ny forhandlingsrunde i WTO : Simulerte reduksjoner i handelsrestriksjoner i den internasjonale likevektsm...
En ny forhandlingsrunde i WTO kan medføre betydelige tollreduksjoner for fiskerinæringen. Dette vil bedre eksportmulighetene for Norge i mange markeder, men samtidig undergrave den tollfordel Norge har i EU-markedet i forhold til en del konkurrenter. Resultatene fra en analyse med den internasjonale likevektsmodellen GTAP med verden inn-delt i 26 regioner, viser at dersom bare tollen for fisk blir redusert i WTO, øker samlet eks-port-verdi av fisk for Norge. Handelen med EU går imidlertid noe ned, men dette kompenseres ved høyere eksport til resten av verden. Tollreduksjoner i andre sektorer som følge av WTO-forhandlingene kan endre utfallet. Liberalisering av landbrukssektoren vrir konsumetter-spørs-elen fra fisk mot landbruksvarer, og dette bidrar til mindre eksport av fisk. Liberalisering på industri-området fører til økt eksport av fisk fordi verdens inntektsnivå øker.
Sunk costs in the exporting activity: Implications for international trade and specialisation
International trade costs may be sunk and not proportional to sales. The paper explores this theoretically, by allowing firms to invest in sales channels or marketing in order to increase demand in each market. The returns to such investments will, ceteris paribus, be higher in markets with lower variable trade costs (e.g. transport costs). Firms will therefore invest and sell more at home than in foreign markets, and more in foreign markets with low variable trade costs. Sunk export costs will therefore amplify the trade-reducing impact of other trade barriers, and dampen the «home market effect» whereby large countries tend to be net exporters of differentiated goods.
Kan valg av eksportmarked forklares med teorien om investeringer under usikkerhet? En økonomisk studie av atferden til norske fiskeeksportører
I denne artikkelen gjøres det rede for hvordan nye teorier for investeringer under usikkerhet kan anvendes til å forklare bedrifters eksportbeslutninger. Det gis en empirisk analyse basert på eksportadferden til norske fiskeeksportører. Valg av eksportdestinasjon er søkt forklart ved ulike landspesifikke egenskaper, samt opplysningen om hvorvidt bedriften har eksporterfaring til landet. Hvis valg av eksportdestinasjon medfører ugjenkallelige investeringer, vil teorien for investeringer under usikkerhet predikere at høy valutakurs-usikkerhet reduserer sannsynligheten for å etablere seg i et marked. Jeg finner at inneværende års valutakurs-usikkerhet gir signifikant effekt på sannsynligheten for å være i et marked. Derimot finner jeg ingen signifikant effekt av denne variabelen for valg av eksportland for førstegangsetablerere. Alternative forklaringsvariable med signifikant effekt er korrupsjonsindeksen CPI, velstandsnivå, geografisk avstand og markedets størrelse. Tilstedeværelsen av andre norske eksportbedrifter påvirket eksportbeslutningen positivt, noe som tyder på eksistens av positive eksternaliteter i eksportaktiviteten. Persistens i eksportstatus gir tentativ støtte til eksistensen av ugjenkallelige kostnader.
Geography and growth - some empirical evidence
Income in the world does not distribute randomly in space. There are geographic clusters of rich and poor countries. Also growth rates tend to be spatially clustered. Spatial regression analyses indicate that geographical clustering may be an inherent ingredient in growth mechanisms: Growth in one country stimulates growth in surrounding countries. A simple exogenous growth model with technology diffusion through trade in capital goods can account for some, but not all of these empirical patterns of growth and income distribution.
International R&D Spillovers and the Absorptive Capacity of Multinationals
This paper studies R&D spillovers as a motive for firms to go multinational. The establishment of a foreign subsidiary may increase a firm’s ability to learn from foreign R&D activity since R&D spillovers between firms are moderated by geographical distance. As opposed to earlier studies on this subject, we also model the concept of absorptive capacity where spillovers are endogenised as a function of the firms’ own R&D investments. We employ a three-stage Cournot duopoly model to identify under what conditions a firm chooses to service a foreign market through exports or localised production (going multinational). With exogenous R&D investments, the absorptive capacity effect contributes to increase the gains from going multinational when the firm is a technology leader in terms of R&D. If R&D investments are endogenous, only medium-sized absorptive capacity effects will result in firms going multinational. Also, higher spillover rates do not necessarily drive down R&D and profits for the multinational firm. This stands in contrast to models that ignore the aspect of absorptive capacity.
Learning, Networks and Sunk Costs in International trade: Evidence form Norwegian Seafood Exports
Based on new survey data for 81 Norwegian seafood exporters, the report examines the composition and magnitude of different types of trade costs, ranging from tariffs and transport costs to other sales costs. The results suggest that there are economies of scale in the exporting activity, due to fixed costs of market entry, learning through experience, and externalities between firms so that one exporter benefits from the others via learning or joint marketing effects. Seafood exports strongly rely on personal networks, and firms incur costs in order to establish these networks. On the whole, however, fixed sales costs for seafood exports are small, due to these products being relatively homogeneous. In spite of this, such costs matter for the choice of markets and the magnitude of trade. The report analyses how costs vary across products, firms and markets. For seafood exports, traditional trade barriers such as tariffs and transport costs are more important than the sunk costs. Transport costs do not increase proportionally with geographical distance, mainly since this is not the case for sea transports.
Bokanmeldelse: Globalisering, næringslokalisering og økonomisk politikk
Political Priorities and Economic Interests in Russian-Latvian Relations
The paper focuses on interaction of political and economic aspects in Russian-Latvian relations. During the most of the 1990´s, the relationship was dominated by the «conflict manifestation,» which could be witnessed during the protracted Russian troop withdrawal and mutually irreconcilable positioning over NATO expansion and status of Russian-speaking population. However, in the context of EU enlargement and «economisation» of Russian foreign policy, economic factors may play an increasingly important role in Russian-Latvian relations. It is possible to discover a complex web of links and economic interdependence between economic actors in both Russia and Latvia. This especially refers to transit as Latvian ports remain among the major routes of Russian exports, primarily oil, to Western Europe. Yet, certain interests of particular economic groups in Russia as well as economic and political priorities of Russian government generally, in the region and domestically will have influence, not necessarily favourable, on further development of this economic interdependence.
Meet Me Halfway but don't Rush : Absorptive capacity and strategic R&D investment revisited
In this paper, we analyse how R&D investment decisions are affected by R&D spillovers between firms, taking into consideration that more R&D investment improves the ability to learn from competing firms - the so-called absorptive capacity effect of R&D. The model in this paper is an extension of d’Aspremont and Jacquemin (1988), where they show that exogenous R&D spillovers reduce the incentive to invest in R&D when firms compete in a Cournot duopoly. Our model treats R&D spillovers as endogenous, being a function of absorptive capacity effects. Contrary to earlier studies, we show that absorptive capacity effects do not necessarily drive up the incentive to invest in R&D. This only happens when the market size is small or the absorptive capacity effect is weak. Otherwise firms will actually chose to cut down on R&D. Furthermore, absorptive capacity effects also increase the critical rate of spillovers that determines whether participating in research joint ventures leads to lower or higher R&D investment. Finally, we show that strong learning effects of own R&D are not necessarily good for welfare. Moreover, if the market size is large, welfare will be at its highest when the learning effect is small.
Firms' export decisions - fixed trade costs and the size of the export market
This article presents two models of international trade under monopolistic competition. In increasing returns sectors firms face fixed, in addition to variable, trade costs, therefore both exporters and non-exporters may coexist. While nonexporters benefit from access to large domestic markets, exporters benefit from access to large foreign markets. Consequently, a small country has a higher share of exporting firms than a large one. In contrast to standard models, increasing returns sectors turn out more open in small countries than in large ones, and small countries may be net exporters of such commodities, despite the disadvantage of a smaller home market.