Upholding the NATO cyber pledge Cyber Deterrence and Resilience: Dilemmas in NATO defence and security politics
This Policy Brief clarifies the key concepts of traditional deterrence and explores how these apply to cyber deterrence for the NATO alliance. Firstly a range of problems inherent to cyberspace itself and to the translation of existing deterrence models to this domain are identified. Secondly a range of alternative and complementary approaches to deterrence are proposes that can assist in developing a new framework for conceptualizing NATO Alliance cyber deterrence. A rethinking cyber deterrence as a condition of success or failure is argued for: cyber deterrence must be reframed as an ongoing process, utilizing national and Alliance resources from multiple domains as a means to establish deterrence and resilience. It is argued that traditional models of deterrence, drawn from the nuclear and conventional deterrence thinking of many decades’ standing, are inadequate for addressing the challenge of deterring cyber threats in the 21st century. The dynamism of the environment, the range of threats, the multiplicity of state and non-state actors, and the technical challenges of attribution – all require a reorientation of deterrence posture and practice. This reconceptualization must focus on cyberspace itself in an intensification of attention to its idiosyncrasies, but should also be open to a relaxation of orthodoxy in its incorporation of new outlooks and ideas, some of which may strain the established boundaries of deterrence theory. Full text Policy Brief online version: http://www.nupi.no/en/About-NUPI/Projects-centres-and-programmes/Cyber-Security-Centre/Upholding-the-NATO-cyber-pledge
EU's new external migration policy: just old wine in new bottles?
NUPI has the pleasure of inviting you to Kjelleren at Litteraturhuset to discuss EUs new framework that is meant to cope with the migration crisis better than before.
Montenegro’s integration to EU and NATO in challenging times
Montenegro is about to become NATOs 29th member, and is the first country from the Western Balkans to join since Croatia in 2009. Minister of European Affairs of Montenegro visits NUPI to share his view of the situation.
The EU and a changing world: The Global Strategy and its implementation
Both Europe and the rest of the world has witnessed great changes the past year. How does this effect the EU?
Political change and historical analogies
This article deals with how scholars, policy analysts and activists, striving to make sense of current political change, have turned to history for analogies and ideas for action. While it is encouraging to see the Trump presidency and other instances of upheaval leading to a strengthened interest in history, in academe and public life more generally, there nevertheless is a need to caution against facile appropriations of the historical record and the use of superficial similarity to legitimize political action. I discuss ways of historicizing the present, through some examples of historical analogies applied to the first months of the Trump presidency and other relatively current instances of change. I start with a discussion of historical analogies and concepts, stressing how they can be understood as both first order and second order constructs. Then I discuss the current usage of historical analogies and concepts as both first order and second order constructs, before I conclude.
Iceland’s Relations with its Regional Powers: Alignment with the EU-US sanctions on Russia
The paper examines the Icelandic government’s consideration to withdraw its support for the sanctions against Russia over Ukraine in 2015. The consideration came as a surprise to many since Iceland in the past has habitually aligned itself closely with the United States and the European Union in such matters. The Icelandic fishing industry lobbied hard for the sanctions to be lifted to avoid Russian counter-sanctions on Iceland. After considerable internal debate, the government decided to uphold the sanctions, but settled on a policy of not taking part in EU´s foreign policy declarations about the sanctions. This move is interesting given Iceland’s traditional positioning between two gravitational centres in world politics: the EU and the US. The paper discusses what this case tells us about Icelandic policymakers’ room for maneuvering in the formulation and enactment of its foreign policy, and about Iceland’s foreign policy bonds to the US and the EU.
Norsk politi i internasjonal tjeneste 1989-2016
(Norwegian only): Denne rapporten dokumenterer erfaringer blant norsk politipersonell som har tjenestegjort i internasjonale operasjoner fra 1989 frem til i dag. Spørreskjemaet ble sendt til 440 personer, og det kom inn 277 svar: 78% fra menn, de resterende 22% fra kvinner. Flertallet av dem er fra 41 til 57 år og fortsatt ansatt i politiet. 57% har vært ute mer enn en gang, og 81% av de som har svart, har vært en eller flere ganger i Kosovo, Sør-Sudan, Afghanistan, Liberia, Palestina, Bosnia og Herzegovina eller Haiti (i synkende rekkefølge etter antall).
Norwegian Police in International Operations 1989-2016
This policy brief presents the main findings and recommendations from a longer survey-based report with the same title, documenting the experiences of Norwegian police personnel in international operations from 1989 until today. The purpose of the survey was to systematically gather the knowledge Norwegian police bring home from international operations, be they peace operations, stabilization missions or other assistance missions. This information is an important source of information for policymakers, practitioners and academics in order to understand the challenges Norwegian police have met, not only in the field but also before deployment and after return. This is meant to provide an improved knowledge base for developing new policy and practice for Norwegian police deployments and international police assistance.