Research project
Roads to Power? The political effects of infrastructure projects in Asia (ROADS)
Events
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is said to be aimed at generating both economic gains, but also political ones – tying recipients of Chinese investments closer to Beijing. But does investing in infrastructure projects generate increased political influence?
ROADS seeks to answer this question by combining systematic analyses of China's investments in infrastructure projects in different regions with in-depth analyses of the political dynamics of infrastructure investments in specific countries.
We assess the political effects of infrastructure investments (roads, trains, digital) by analysing the pre-existing relationship between China and the countries where they invest, as well as attributes of the infrastructure investments themselves.
Ongoing research considers China's role in infrastructure development in Southeast Asia (i.e. Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia and Indonesia) and other regions (i.e. MENA region, Europe), as well as responses and parallel initiatives of other major powers (i.e. US, Japan, G7, EU) to the BRI.
The ambition is to arrive at a more nuanced understanding of the BRI and China's efforts to wield power globally, and to identify the factors that strengthen or undermine BRI and China.
Project Manager
Participants
External
Tan-Mullins, May
Larson, Deborah
Nymalm, Nicola
Sakai, Hidekazu
Freeman, Carla
Articles
title.podkast
Psychology, Status, and Recognition in International Politics
In this episode, Professor Deborah Welch Larson joins host Morten Skumsrud Andersen to discuss how the need for recognition and the fear of status...
Psychology, Status, and Recognition in International Politics
In this episode, Professor Deborah Welch Larson joins host Morten Skumsrud Andersen to discuss how the need for recognition and the fear of status...
Building influence: China's Belt and Road Initiative and the geopolitics of infrastructure
Over the past decade, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has redrawn physical, economic, and political maps. From ports in the Indian Ocean to...
New publications
The Political Effects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Context, Competition, and Infrastructure Politics
In this special issue, the authors identify three contextual dimensions that are particularly important for understanding the political effects of the Belt Road Initiative (BRI). First, bilateral relations and domestic politics: how a country’s history of interactions with China, and the particularities of its domestic politics, affects how the BRI is received, negotiated, and politicized. Second, the politics of international goods substitution: the BRI does not operate in a vacuum but in an ecology of competing providers of infrastructures and related international goods. The effects of any given investment will depend on what alternatives are available to recipient states. Third, symbolic and ideational contexts. Beyond its material dimensions, the BRI can function as an identity or status marker—for China, for recipient states, and for adversaries—in ways that may carry independent political consequences. Engaging with these three contextual dimensions, the authors argue, is key to moving beyond abstraction or insulation, and toward a fuller picture of the political effects of the BRI. The contributions to this special issue all investigate how these contextual dimensions of the BRI condition its political effects across regions and issue areas. Thereby, they seek to bridge the gap between macro-level accounts of China’s rise, and the more fine-grained studies of BRI projects. In this introduction, the authors first review the evolution of research on the BRI before addressing these three contextual dimensions in more detail and how they relate to the contributions comprising the special issue.
The Political Effects of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Context, Competition, and Infrastructure Politics
In this special issue, the authors identify three contextual dimensions that are particularly important for understanding the political effects of the Belt Road Initiative (BRI). First, bilateral relations and domestic politics: how a country’s history of interactions with China, and the particularities of its domestic politics, affects how the BRI is received, negotiated, and politicized. Second, the politics of international goods substitution: the BRI does not operate in a vacuum but in an ecology of competing providers of infrastructures and related international goods. The effects of any given investment will depend on what alternatives are available to recipient states. Third, symbolic and ideational contexts. Beyond its material dimensions, the BRI can function as an identity or status marker—for China, for recipient states, and for adversaries—in ways that may carry independent political consequences. Engaging with these three contextual dimensions, the authors argue, is key to moving beyond abstraction or insulation, and toward a fuller picture of the political effects of the BRI. The contributions to this special issue all investigate how these contextual dimensions of the BRI condition its political effects across regions and issue areas. Thereby, they seek to bridge the gap between macro-level accounts of China’s rise, and the more fine-grained studies of BRI projects. In this introduction, the authors first review the evolution of research on the BRI before addressing these three contextual dimensions in more detail and how they relate to the contributions comprising the special issue.
Central Asia between China and Russia: Exercising Agency in a Changing Regional Order
This report addresses a central question: why has China’s expanding engagement in Central Asia not led to direct rivalry with Russia? Organised around thematic expert contributions, the report examines Sino-Russian relations, China’s role in shaping regional order, and the economic and social dimensions of its engagement. It concludes with policy recommendations for the United Kingdom on how to apply existing priorities more effectively in Central Asia.
Japan and Strategic Connectivity: Policies, Partners, and Possibilities
This report analyses the increasingly important role of infrastructure development and connectivity as a central arena of global geopolitical competition, particularly focusing on Japan’s connectivity policy under the banner of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific. The core aim of this report is to explore how Japan seeks to utilise strategic connectivity, specifically through its multi-layered approach, as a pivotal geopolitical instrument to project influence and promote a rules-based order, amidst rising competition with China. The report offers ten actionable policy recommendations, in particular, for the European Union.
Navigating ASEAN-Myanmar Relations: The Phnom Penh Summit as a Critical Juncture for (Dis)Engagement
This article considers recent internal developments in Myanmar and how they strain external relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It identifies ASEAN’s Phnom Penh Summit as a critical juncture for disengaging the military government, engaging non-political entities and upgrading the 2021 Five-Point Consensus.
Recognition and Japan’s Post-coup Diplomacy in Myanmar and Afghanistan
How does Japan diplomatically engage with post-coup countries? Officially, it does not maintain diplomatic relations. Unofficially, however, Japan conducts a vibrant post-coup diplomacy. Probing different forms of recognition, this article investigates how Japan manages its diplomacy with countries where illiberal, military governments have violently assumed power. Since the military government’s coup in Myanmar in 2021, Japan has adapted its policies in terms of magnitude, span and content to remain engaged in this strategic location. Similarly, since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021, Japan has shifted its contributions for humanitarian assistance, political process and economic infrastructure. In both cases, Japan has crafted its post-coup relations amid intensifying great power dynamics on the one hand, and a changing domestic policy agenda for foreign aid and security on the other. Japan has developed its own distinct form of post-coup diplomacy that involves a ‘pragmatic’ approach to engagement and implied forms of recognition.
Project Manager
Events
Participants
External
Tan-Mullins, May
Larson, Deborah
Nymalm, Nicola
Sakai, Hidekazu
Freeman, Carla