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Researcher

Lucas de Oliveira Paes

Senior Research Fellow
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Summary

Lucas de Oliveira Paes is a Senior Research Fellow and a post-doctoral researcher in the Research group on Russia, Asia and international trade at NUPI. He works on the European Research Council-funded Lorax Project: Understanding Ecosystemic Politics. He holds a PhD in Politics and International Studies from the University of Cambridge.

His doctoral research drew on network theory and analysis to study international hierarchies and the politics of global and regional hegemonic orders. His research interests focus on relational perspectives on dynamics of order, hierarchy, sovereignty, regionalism, and international relations theory more broadly. In the Lorax project, Lucas will study the ecosystemic politics of the Amazon rainforest.

Expertise

  • Globalisation
  • Regional integration
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • South and Central America
  • Climate
  • International organizations
  • Historical IR
  • Comparative methods

Education

2020 PhD, Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge

2016 Master's degree in International Strategic Studies, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

2014 Bachelor's degree in International Relations, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Work Experience

2020- Senior Research Fellow, NUPI

2018-2020 Editor-in-Chief, Cambridge Review of International Affairs

2017-2018 Associate Editor, Cambridge Review of International Affairs

2016-2017 Research Assistant, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, United States

2014-2016 Research Associate, Center for International Studies on Government, Brazil

Aktivitet

Publications
Publications
Scientific article

Annex to the report 'Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks'

This annex is connected to the NUPI Report 'Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks' found here: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/norway-s-strategic-dependencies-in-global-supply-chain-networks

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Publications
Publications
Report

Norway’s strategic dependencies in global supply chain networks

Economic interdependence and global supply chains are being investigated anew. For a long time, a belief in the ability of growing economic ties to foster cooperation, dampen conflict, and enhance prosperity was predominant in academic and political thinking alike. However, these assumptions have recently proven to be half-truths at best. Rather than dampen conflict, the asymmetries of global supply chains have turned them into coercive tools for the powerful to wield against the powerless. Through sanctions and export controls, states controlling vital chokepoints in global economic networks can cause harm in targeted states, and through controlling the nodes of information highways, intelligence agencies can gain access to sensitive information by leveraging the key position of their domestic companies. For states with small, open economies, this development poses a thorny problem: the toolbox for realigning global supply chains is limited, but reliance on supply chains beyond national control is extensive. The problem is not limited to being in a position of dependence, however. For smaller states, being in control over global assets, or being a key provider of a product or resource others depend on can be a double-edged sword. As economic coercion becomes more widely deployed, the impetus for protecting and securing assets increases, and the risk that they might drag smaller states into geopolitical contests grows. Addressing these concerns, it is vital to develop tools, frameworks, and methodologies for assessing supply chains from a national perspective, with a focus on how economic interdependence might introduce geopolitical risks. Against this background, this report builds on recent theoretical and methodological developments for analyzing global supply chains in light of their potential for geopolitical weaponization. More precisely, it will study Norway’s position in global value chains by combining recent methodological developments on the network analysis of supply chains and recent analysis of country-level aggregated analysis of supply dependencies. This allows for a study of supply chains as networks of economic relations, in which the position of different national economies contains both strategic capacities, or assets, by being central suppliers on which other countries depend, and vulnerabilities, by depending heavily on other countries. The report thus uses network analysis to identify Norway’s positions and their related strategic vulnerabilities and assets. Link to the Annex for this report: https://www.nupi.no/en/publications/cristin-pub/annex-to-the-report-norway-s-strategic-dependencies-in-global-supply-chain-networks

  • International economics
  • Economic growth
  • Trade
  • International investments
  • Globalisation
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  • International economics
  • Economic growth
  • Trade
  • International investments
  • Globalisation
Publications
Publications
Scientific article

Technology and maritime security in Africa: Opportunities and challenges in Gulf of Guinea

Maritime security threats undermine safety and security at sea and, in turn, coastal states’ efforts to harness the resources in their maritime domain. This assertion is true for coastal states and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) on the African continent, where limited maritime enforcement capabilities have increased security threats at sea, such as illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, piracy and armed robbery at sea, toxic waste dumping and other illicit activities. African navies and their foreign partners are taking advantage of the opportunities that technology provides to improve safety and security. Technology has led to the identification of criminals at sea, their capture and prosecution, making it crucial in enhancing maritime security. As such, the merits of its use for maritime security are undeniable. However, using technology comes with challenges that need to be considered. With this in mind, our research makes an original contribution by exploring the opportunities for using technology to advance maritime safety and security in Africa, successes and challenges with an emphasis on the Gulf of Guinea region. Drawing from questionnaire data from maritime law enforcement personnel, agencies supporting the implementation of the Yaoundé Code of Conduct (2013), and a review of relevant literature and policy documents, we contend that technology has significantly improved maritime domain awareness and the effective implementation of maritime safety and security in the Gulf of Guinea. However, addressing existing limitations and enhancing human capacity is imperative to sustain this progress.

  • Security policy
  • Development policy
  • Africa
  • Oceans
  • Governance
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  • Security policy
  • Development policy
  • Africa
  • Oceans
  • Governance
Articles
Articles

Nature knows no political borders

Ecosystems cannot be split up only because they cross state borders. Neither can the governance of nature. What does this mean for state sovereignty?
  • Diplomacy
  • Climate
Event
09:30 - 11:00
NUPI/Livestream to Facebook and Youtube
Engelsk
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Event
09:30 - 11:00
NUPI/Livestream to Facebook and Youtube
Engelsk
8. Mar 2023
Event
09:30 - 11:00
NUPI/Livestream to Facebook and Youtube
Engelsk

Building Sustainable Democracy in Latin America and the Caribbean

How can the Escazú Agreement contribute to democracy building?

Publications
Publications
Report

Stakeholder Networks in International Development Projects in the Amazon rainforest

The governance of environmental issues has become a central challenge in world politics. These issues are often complex, thus requiring flows of knowledge and resource from multiple actors across multiple levels. International development cooperation is a channel for these varied sets of actors to join their efforts in concrete projects and policies, allowing for global engagement with local envi- ronmental challenges. It thus can anchor policy networks capable of structuring polycentric modes governance. Yet, empirical research has shown that policy networks are sites of political disputes, (re)producing power rela- tions and affecting the capacity of different social groups to influence relevant outcomes. In this brief, we examine such dynamics in the network of stakeholders involved in development, execution or governance of internationally funded projects in the Amazon.

  • South and Central America
  • Climate
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  • South and Central America
  • Climate
Event
14:30 - 16:00
NUPI
Engelsk
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Event
14:30 - 16:00
NUPI
Engelsk
1. Dec 2022
Event
14:30 - 16:00
NUPI
Engelsk

Book Launch: Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders

We invite you to this book launch with Ayse Zarakol and her new book on the rise and fall of world orders.

Publications
Publications
Scientific article

The Amazon rainforest and the global–regional politics of ecosystem governance

This article examines the global–regional politics of ecosystem governance through the case of the Amazon rainforest. Despite the bourgeoning literature on global and regional environmental politics, the interplay of these dynamics in ecosystem governance has still received limited attention. I here propose that the politics of ecosystem governance are rooted in a dispute over the realization of alternative ecosystem services. When global actors become invested in promoting ecosystem preservation to secure the realization services with diffuse benefits, it can affect cooperation at the regional level. Ecosystem-adjacent states can perceive external interest as a threat, building regional cooperation as a tool to defend sovereignty, but also as an opportunity, using it to bargain the terms of their stewardship. I use this framework to trace the evolution of regional cooperation in the Amazon, demonstrating how it was developed in response to this ecosystem's growing global salience. Through defensive sovereignty and bargained stewardship, regional cooperation helped Amazon states to cap international commitment and limit external influence in the region but also allowed for building some form of coordinated ecosystem protection. The research sheds new light on both the potential and the limitations of global–regional engagements for the preservation of the Amazon and other analogous cross-border ecosystems.

  • Regional integration
  • Development policy
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • South and Central America
  • Governance
  • International organizations
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  • Regional integration
  • Development policy
  • Diplomacy
  • Foreign policy
  • South and Central America
  • Governance
  • International organizations
Publications
Publications
Report

The challenge of IUU fishing in West Africa and The PotentialTechnology Solutions: An analysis of international cooperationprojects in Ghana and Gu...

Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a social, economic and environmental problem. It undermines management and drives the depletion of fish stocks, threatens food security, and drains valuable resources from the economy. In recent decades, efforts have been made to build an international regime that can curb IUU fishing. However, implementing this regime and stemming the tides of IUU fishing remains challenging. At the center of this challenge is the necessity to create capacity in states for the monitoring, control, and surveillance (MCS) of fisheries. Monitoring fisheries means measuring fishing effort characteristics and resource yields continuously. The control of fisheries concerns the establishment of regulations for exploiting resources. Surveillance refers to the measures to secure compliance with regulatory controls.

  • International investments
  • Africa
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  • International investments
  • Africa
Event
10:30 -
NUPI
Engelsk
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Event
10:30 -
NUPI
Engelsk
13. Oct 2022
Event
10:30 -
NUPI
Engelsk

The Brazilian Elections and the Prospects for Norwegian Cooperation in the Amazon Rainforest

How can the presidential election in Brazil affect international cooperation to preserve the Amazon rainforest?

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