How does climate change impact peace and security?

Since 2021, NUPI and SIPRI have analysed the links between climate, peace, and security in countries and regions on the agenda of the UN Security Council. These are the researchers’ key findings.

A MINUSMA soldier in Mali in 2019. The UN mission in Mali officially ended ten years of deployment in the country this month.

Foto: Marco Longari / AFP / NTB

Published: January 17, 2024 Kheira Tarif Katongo Seyuba Anne Funnemark Elisabeth L. Rosvold Kyungmee Kim Florian Krampe Asha Ali Cedric H. de Coning

Climate change is having alarming effects on societies and ecosystems. There is also growing evidence of its impacts on peace and conflict, which is reflected in discussions in the United Nations Security Council.

NUPI and SIPRI have analysed the links between climate, peace and security in countries and regions on the agenda of the UN Security Council in a series of Climate, Peace, and Security Fact Sheets. This paper synthesizes four key findings from the fact sheet series:

the centrality of livelihood to climate-related security risks
the way in which climate change in one location can lead to insecurity risks in another
how climate change interacts with new and existing conflict risks
conflict as a societal response to climate change

The paper concludes with recommendations for how the UN Security Council shapes policies for addressing the complex challenges arising from climate change.

Since 2021, the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) have generated analysis on climate, peace and security in specific countries and regions on the UNSC agenda. To support Norway during its 2021-2022 elected membership of the UNSC, NUPI and SIPRI jointly published 11 Fact Sheets covering nine countries on the agenda of the Security Council (Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Colombia, Ethiopia, Iraq, Mali, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan) and the Sahel region.

The Fact Sheets are based on a review of academic and grey literature, and consultations with government ministries, UN missions and agencies, and country/regional experts.