Research project
Arctic Pressures (ArcPres)
There also remain longstanding global trends that continue to shape the premises for Arctic governance and security, such as climate change and developments in global regimes. The ArcPres project aims to analyze interplay across these novel and long-term drivers and the regional dynamics of rivalry and cooperation. This synthesizing approach is needed to ensure that interactions between policy fields relevant to the Arctic are considered. Our core research foci will be on empirical studies of factors that are not well-covered by existing research programmes due to their novelty, recent enhanced importance or cross-sector nature. These include:
- developments internal to Russia (changing Arctic politics, changing networks of actors developing Arctic relevant policies).
- Russia-China bilateral relations and developments of relevance to the Arctic from science cooperation to the high political level, with a focus on how these relations are affected by the war and Russia/West relations.
- developments of relevance to Arctic governance in broader global regimes (climate, ocean governance).
- developments in Arctic security (including soft security issues, such as misinformation, and interplay between Western responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and security dynamics in the Arctic).
- developments in alliance politics developments in science-policy networks focused on Arctic governance (amongst the “like-minded” Arctic states, in Indigenous peoples’ organizations and networks and vis-a-vis Russia in Arctic policy and research fields).
To further integrate across project outputs and existing scholarship, the ArcPres team will also incorporate and consider the high likelihood of impacts of extra-regional events and developments through scenario-building exercises. These scenario workshops will be small to facilitate dialogue, but are open to stakeholders, researchers and practitioners beyond the project team. Interest in participating in ArcPres scenario workshops is welcome and can be directed to the project leader.
Project Manager
Participants
External
- Kari, Myklebost, University of Tromsø
- Rauna, Kuokkanen, University of Lapland
- Jennifer, Spence, Harvard Kennedy School
- Pia, Hansson, University of Iceland
- Mathieu, Landriault, Observatoire de la politique et la sécurité de l’Arctique (OPSA),
Articles
New publications
A warmer Arctic in colder geopolitical climate: What role for the private sector?
• The Arctic is experiencing considerable physical and geopolitical change affecting states, Indigenous peoples and various stakeholders. • Private sector actors are also affected by climate change, geopolitical developments and economic trends in the Arctic, although the impacts on and potential governance role of the private sector in securing safety and stability in the Arctic are often neglected in policy analyses. • This policy note outlines key stressors in the region and gives recommendations as to how the private sector can contribute to a safe and stable Arctic by supporting governance and sharing knowledge.
Arctic Spillover? Military Signalling in the European Arctic Before and After the Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
How has Russian and Western military activity in the European Arctic evolved following Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine? Are we seeing a more forward-leaning and assertive Russia, and have NATO allies strengthened their presence? In short, are we seeing an intensified mutual deterrence posture? These crucial questions are made all the more pressing by the region hosting a significant proportion of Russia’s sea-based strategic nuclear arsenal. Against this backdrop, the article analyses developments in both Russian and Western military activity in the European Arctic, with a particular focus on how deterrence is signalled through military posture. The study finds that, despite claims to the contrary, military day-to-day business in the European Arctic remains relatively unchanged. Russia’s activities appear to signal a desire to maintain the status quo rather than revisionist stance. While the West has strengthened its deterrence signalling, its posture remains measured.
Russia’s strategic interest in the Arctic: a comparative perspective
The main objective of this brief study is to examine what we define as ‘Russia’s strategic interest in the Arctic’ from a comparative perspective in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. There are different ways of mapping a country’s strategic interest in an issue. This research paper adopts a quantitative approach to measuring the level of strategic interest that official Russia has expressed in the Arctic and compares this interest in the Arctic with interest in the Barents Sea, Baltic Sea and Black Sea regions. Measuring interest comparatively is done by mapping how much attention is being given to these four regions by various Russian actors who shape or examine Russian policies in their key communication channels. Due to the format of this study, it does not explore what drives this interest, focusing only on a quantitative examination of the number of references to the regions in question in the chosen set of information channels.
The Arctic Barometer: Measuring Expert Predictions on the Arctic Region
Making predictions in a highly uncertain environment is always a hazardous enterprise. Confronted with global warming, the future of the Arctic region has been often debated, both in terms of the scope and the speed of expected changes, including the future of resource development, the opening of shipping routes, and the evolution of multilateral fora. These predictions have come from different sources: governments through different policy papers and statements, the media, civil society, and academics, to name but a few. It can be difficult to account for this vast and diverse array of predictions, considering that each actor has interests to promote. We decided to develop a survey asking different actors to make predictions about possible Arctic geopolitical developments. Instead of letting individuals make their own predictions on the topic of their choice, we selected plausible scenarios and prompted respondents to evaluate if these developments were likely or unlikely to happen. Scenarios were developed to be both visible and concrete: we can evaluate if the scenario unfolded or not during a certain time period. For example, we can observe if Russia violated the airspace of another Arctic state, if Greenland reached state sovereignty, or if the U.S. deployed a freedom of navigation operations in the Arctic region. In total, our scenarios covered two dimensions: governance and security. On governance, potential developments around diplomatic initiatives or multilateral cooperation were tested. On security, the possibility of military conflict in the region or of military intrusions were considered. Two main objectives justified this approach. First, we wanted to evaluate if experts were correct in their predictions. Related to this, we were curious to know which type of issues caused incorrect assessments. Second, we repeated the same scenarios in multiple waves: the objective was to analyze if specific geopolitical developments occurring between waves would change predictions, moving the needle on experts’ predictions
Changing or frozen narratives? The Arctic in Russian media and expert commentary, 2021–2022
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has brought Russia–West relations to its lowest point since the Cold War. Relations in the Arctic region are not excepted, evidenced not least by the other seven member states’ pausing their participation in Russia’s Arctic Council chairmanship (which concluded in May 2023). To the extent that “Arctic exceptionalism” – the notion that the Arctic has been characterised by a cooperative mode between Russia and the West which has remained relatively untouched by increasing tensions elsewhere – was ever an appropriate description, Western analysts have now declared it firmly dead. How does this situation look from within Russia? This research paper investigates how the Russian state media and the foreign policy expert community have portrayed the Arctic in 2021 and 2022. How much change has been seen since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine? By surveying “the story about the Arctic” as presented by mainstream narrators and experts, we gain insights into, among other things, how changes in Arctic cooperation, sanctions, the role of China in the Arctic, and the question of climate change are conveyed to Russian audiences. The paper proceeds as follows. We start by briefly explaining the methods and data used. We then present a portrayal of the Arctic in Russia’s government’s newspaper Rossiiskaya gazeta, followed by the role of the Arctic in analyses published by the Russian International Affairs Council and the journal Russia in Global Affairs. Lastly, we conclude by discussing a general continuity in the way the Arctic is framed in the material, and foreground three core themes: climate change, security, and cooperation.
Arctic Climate Science: A Way Forward for Cooperation through the Arctic Council and Beyond
This brief is inspired and informed by a two-day workshop in Cambridge, Massachusetts entitled “The Future of Arctic Council Innovation: Charting A Course for Working-Level Cooperation” hosted by the Belfer Center’s Arctic Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School in collaboration with the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, the Center for Ocean Governance at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, and the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center. Participants included diverse representatives from civil society, academia, Indigenous Peoples’ organizations, and governments with deep knowledge of and experience with both the Arctic Council and other regional governance mechanisms.
All Quiet on the Northern Front? Russian Media Coverage of Russia-China Arctic Cooperation
This research paper explores the extent and focus of China’s engagement in the Russian Arctic from one key Russian official media outlet, Rossiiskaya gazeta, and highlights how the daily’s coverage provides further context for understanding Russia’s approach to China in the Arctic.
Project Manager
Participants
External
- Kari, Myklebost, University of Tromsø
- Rauna, Kuokkanen, University of Lapland
- Jennifer, Spence, Harvard Kennedy School
- Pia, Hansson, University of Iceland
- Mathieu, Landriault, Observatoire de la politique et la sécurité de l’Arctique (OPSA),