Forskningsprosjekt
Arctic Pressures (ArcPres)
Prosjektleder
Deltakere
Eksterne
- Kari, Myklebost, Universitetet i Tromsø
- Rauna, Kuokkanen, University of Lapland
- Jennifer, Spence, Harvard Kennedy School
- Pia, Hansson, University of Iceland
- Mathieu, Landriault, Observatoire de la politique et la sécurité de l’Arctique (OPSA),
Aktuelt
Nye publikasjoner
Arctic Spillover? Military Signalling in the European Arctic Before and After the Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
Hvordan har russisk og vestlig militær aktivitet i det europeiske Arktis utviklet seg etter Russlands fullskala invasjon av Ukraina i 2022? Ser vi konturene av en mer fremoverlent og selvsikker russisk opptreden, og har NATO-allierte styrket sin tilstedeværelse? Kort sagt: Er vi vitne til en gjensidig skjerpet avskrekking? Disse spørsmålene blir desto mer presserende gitt at regionen huser en betydelig andel av Russlands sjøbaserte strategiske atomvåpenarsenal. Med denne bakgrunnen analyserer artikkelen utviklingstrekk i russisk og vestlig militær aktivitet i det europeiske Arktis, med særlig vekt på hvordan avskrekking kommuniseres gjennom militær tilstedeværelse og holdning. Studien finner at, til tross for påstander om det motsatte, forblir den militære hverdagen i det europeiske Arktis i stor grad uendret. Russlands aktiviteter synes å signalisere et ønske om å opprettholde status quo snarere enn en revisjonistisk kurs. Vestlige aktører har styrket sitt avskrekkingssignal, men holder fortsatt en avmålt militær profil.
Russia’s strategic interest in the Arctic: a comparative perspective
Hovedmålet med denne studien er å undersøke hva vi legger i begrepet «Russlands strategiske interesse i Arktis», sett i et komparativt perspektiv og med den pågående krigen i Ukraina som bakteppe. Det finnes ulike måter å kartlegge et lands strategiske interesser på. I denne studien bruker vi en kvantitativ metode for å måle hvor stor oppmerksomhet det offisielle Russland retter mot Arktis. Denne interessen sammenlignes med tilsvarende oppmerksomhet rundt Barentshavet, Østersjøen og Svartehavet. For å gjøre dette ser vi på hvor ofte disse fire regionene omtales i ulike informasjonskanaler brukt av aktører som former eller analyserer russisk politikk. Antall referanser brukes som et mål på hvor stor interesse regionene vekker. Studien sier ikke noe om hvorfor interessen er som den er, men undersøker utelukkende hvor mye regionene omtales i de kanalene vi har valgt ut.
A warmer Arctic in colder geopolitical climate: What role for the private sector?
• Store fysiske og geopolitiske endringer påvirker stater, urfolk og ulike aktører i Arktis. • Aktører i privat sektor påvirkes også av klimaendringer, geopolitisk utvikling og økonomiske trender i Arktis. Likevel forsømmes ofte påvirkningskraften og potensialet for styring privat sektor kan ha for å sikre trygghet og stabilitet i regionen. • Denne policy brief-en fremhever nøkkelaktører i regionen og gir anbefalinger om hvordan privat sektor kan bidra til trygghet og stabilitet i Arktis.
The Arctic Barometer: Measuring Expert Predictions on the Arctic Region
Making predictions in a highly uncertain environment is always a hazardous enterprise. Confronted with global warming, the future of the Arctic region has been often debated, both in terms of the scope and the speed of expected changes, including the future of resource development, the opening of shipping routes, and the evolution of multilateral fora. These predictions have come from different sources: governments through different policy papers and statements, the media, civil society, and academics, to name but a few. It can be difficult to account for this vast and diverse array of predictions, considering that each actor has interests to promote. We decided to develop a survey asking different actors to make predictions about possible Arctic geopolitical developments. Instead of letting individuals make their own predictions on the topic of their choice, we selected plausible scenarios and prompted respondents to evaluate if these developments were likely or unlikely to happen. Scenarios were developed to be both visible and concrete: we can evaluate if the scenario unfolded or not during a certain time period. For example, we can observe if Russia violated the airspace of another Arctic state, if Greenland reached state sovereignty, or if the U.S. deployed a freedom of navigation operations in the Arctic region. In total, our scenarios covered two dimensions: governance and security. On governance, potential developments around diplomatic initiatives or multilateral cooperation were tested. On security, the possibility of military conflict in the region or of military intrusions were considered. Two main objectives justified this approach. First, we wanted to evaluate if experts were correct in their predictions. Related to this, we were curious to know which type of issues caused incorrect assessments. Second, we repeated the same scenarios in multiple waves: the objective was to analyze if specific geopolitical developments occurring between waves would change predictions, moving the needle on experts’ predictions
Changing or frozen narratives? The Arctic in Russian media and expert commentary, 2021–2022
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has brought Russia–West relations to its lowest point since the Cold War. Relations in the Arctic region are not excepted, evidenced not least by the other seven member states’ pausing their participation in Russia’s Arctic Council chairmanship (which concluded in May 2023). To the extent that “Arctic exceptionalism” – the notion that the Arctic has been characterised by a cooperative mode between Russia and the West which has remained relatively untouched by increasing tensions elsewhere – was ever an appropriate description, Western analysts have now declared it firmly dead. How does this situation look from within Russia? This research paper investigates how the Russian state media and the foreign policy expert community have portrayed the Arctic in 2021 and 2022. How much change has been seen since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine? By surveying “the story about the Arctic” as presented by mainstream narrators and experts, we gain insights into, among other things, how changes in Arctic cooperation, sanctions, the role of China in the Arctic, and the question of climate change are conveyed to Russian audiences. The paper proceeds as follows. We start by briefly explaining the methods and data used. We then present a portrayal of the Arctic in Russia’s government’s newspaper Rossiiskaya gazeta, followed by the role of the Arctic in analyses published by the Russian International Affairs Council and the journal Russia in Global Affairs. Lastly, we conclude by discussing a general continuity in the way the Arctic is framed in the material, and foreground three core themes: climate change, security, and cooperation.
Arctic Climate Science: A Way Forward for Cooperation through the Arctic Council and Beyond
This brief is inspired and informed by a two-day workshop in Cambridge, Massachusetts entitled “The Future of Arctic Council Innovation: Charting A Course for Working-Level Cooperation” hosted by the Belfer Center’s Arctic Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School in collaboration with the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, the Center for Ocean Governance at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, and the Polar Institute at the Wilson Center. Participants included diverse representatives from civil society, academia, Indigenous Peoples’ organizations, and governments with deep knowledge of and experience with both the Arctic Council and other regional governance mechanisms.
All Quiet on the Northern Front? Russian Media Coverage of Russia-China Arctic Cooperation
Dette forskningsnotatet undersøker dekningen av Kinas interesser og aktiviteter i Russlands arktiske områder i myndighetenes offisielle avis, Rossiiskaya gazeta. Notatet diskuterer hvordan avisens dekning kan bidra til mer kunnskap om Russlands tilnærming til Kina i Arktis.
Prosjektleder
Deltakere
Eksterne
- Kari, Myklebost, Universitetet i Tromsø
- Rauna, Kuokkanen, University of Lapland
- Jennifer, Spence, Harvard Kennedy School
- Pia, Hansson, University of Iceland
- Mathieu, Landriault, Observatoire de la politique et la sécurité de l’Arctique (OPSA),